S&P
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
The noon hour’s test of last weeks’ 2253.00 low had recovered to attack 2262.00 during the bias environment. Its reaction down to 2256.00 was retraced entirely, and even probed by 1 point to attack 2263.00. But the afternoon’s bounce wasn’t extended.
And it could have been.
An objective below had been fulfilled and held. The afternoon’s noN-bias surge didn’t require being retraced, but was retraced anyway. The 2256.75 bias-up signal held as support to avoid reversing momentum down. There was plenty of time for a path up to gain traction. And then less time. And finally no time.
Buyers never regained traction.
Rallying Tuesday morning should begin by gapping up, back above Monday morning’s 2266.00 resistance. Its reward would be another test of prior highs. Trending down could also develop overnight, but need not for the pullback to resume on the way to testing 2248.50 below.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Too shallow, and too late.
REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.
The late-morning test of the 2253.00 bias-down target had produced a bounce into the noon hour. It was testing this afternoon;s 2257.75 bias-up signal at the wrong time to trigger. A sudden surge probed it by 4 points, but that was retraced when the bias environment began lapsing.
Back above 2260.75 could extend higher intraday. Its signal would be more credible if triggered during the 3:10-3:20 position-squaring window that just opened.
Meanwhile, another bounce is touching 2260.00 at the final hour’s entry. It retraces 61.8% of the bias environment’s late surge. Back under 2256.75 would signal the bounce had failed, reversing momentum down to fresh session lows.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Sunday night’s probe above last week’s highs didn’t extend higher intraday, as the session fluctuated narrowly around it. Closing higher Tuesday would qualify as a breakout, which might not be confirmed, but still should be avoided if the pattern is topping.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Retesting last Tuesday’s 1214.30 gap up after Friday’s close didn’t neutralize its attraction, nor did retesting it Sunday night. Monday probed it and the prior high to attack 1220.00. No other unfinished business remains outstanding above, but that does not qualify as a sell signal.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
A third eventual higher close remains outstanding from last week, which Sunday night’s rally was trying to resume. There is no bullish reason to back-and-fill again before extending higher.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sunday night’s test of the 151-12 bounce limit was repeated Monday morning, probing it intraday up to 152-15. The top was already sealed, so closing back under 151-22 should suffice to resume the decline. Closing higher Tuesday would undermine the top pattern.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping back down Monday didn’t reject Friday’s gap up, not any more so than Friday had rejected the two mid-week sessions consolidating below. Extending intraday would have qualified as rejection. Instead, the range remains intact, with no clarity on its next break either way.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh lows overnight probed under the 3.19 gap that had remained outstanding. Holding its test is the first stop to bottoming, Closing above 3.25 is the second step, and the minimum requirement to begin reversing up.
Mid-day Update… Bottoming already?
One target met, and not extending lower.
Two pieces of unfinished business below greeted today’s session. Thursday’s oversold RSIs at 2253.00 required a retest, as does the prior week’s 2248.50 low.
This morning’s drop probed 2253.00 once down to 2251.75. No deeper, and for no longer. No lower objective was put into play. Not even 2248.50, although it wouldn’t have been unusual to extend down to it.
Not unusual, perhaps, but also not today, probably. The 2256.75 bias-up signal didn’t trigger, not even with the grace period. It also didn’t hold. Rather, it was still being overlapped to trigger noN-bias. A surge is now testing this morning’s 2261.50 bias-down signal as resistance.
Back under 2257.50 would start to suggest this surge is too late to gain traction, let alone to extend higher. The next lower objective under 2248.50 would be likely. Otherwise, there’s still room up to 2266.75 before signaling a bigger rally underway, targeting new highs.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jan 24, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar is steady, but not very influential to price action. PMI Flash has had an effect only rarely before.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
9:45 AM ET
Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET