S&P
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2281.00 | 2275.50 |
| …would target | 2286.75 | 2281.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2270.75 | 2265.50 |
| …would target | 2265.50 | 2260.00 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
All eyes have been Dow 20k, which was attacked Friday to within 1 point. Perhaps it will be probed decisively when actually touched, to compensate for the delay. For our own purposes, the very long awaited retest of the 2273.00 prior high was finally fulfilled Friday. Its 2275.50 which was probed up to 2277.00.
That was during the noon hour. The entire afternoon fluctuated choppily around 2275.50, back down to 2273.00. Drifting another couple of points lower into the close avoided closing above 2275.50 which would have put into play the next higher objective (there’s room for noise up to 2278.25). The 2273.00 prior high held, too. But the new trend high close on Friday requires at least an eventual higher close before a durable decline would be credible.
This weekend’s Saturday Review will discuss those factors, and others regarding topping and other resolutions. Then we’ll do instant chart analyses of any stocks requested. A reminder and link will be sent overnight.
Meanwhile, details and other markets coverage are discussed in the market Wrap recording here.
Mid-day Update… Made it!
Probing new highs.
The bias environment’s 61.8% retracement back down to the 2258.25 low did quickly recover back up to the 2266.00 bias-up signal. Hovering there until coming within view of the bias environment exit — and only until then — suddenly broke higher to the 2271.25 bias-up target.
And then higher. The 2273.00 prior high was tested just before noon. The noon hour touched 2277.00. The 2274.25 bias-up signal did trigger, but it was invalidated by breaking under it at 1:30 down to 2273.00. That hasn’t prevented a bounce back up to 2276.25.
Back under 2273.50 would start to signal this bounce off of 2273.00 is only obligatory. If today’s rally is going to avoid a new trend high close, then this afternoon’s bias environment should start the process. Regardless of its resolution, there is no unfinished business above.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Jan 9, 2017
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s pre-open Fed speaker could set the morning’s tone, being its only economic event, high-profile or otherwise. The noon hour’s Fed speaker appears during a less liquid window, which can magnify the effects of any headlines.
*Eric Rosengren Speaks
9:00 AM ET
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Dennis Lockhart Speaks
12:40 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2280.00 | 2274.25 |
| …would target | 2285.00 | 2279.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2271.50 | 2266.00 |
| …would target | 2266.00 | 2260.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.