S&P
Mid-day Update… More sponsorship?
Time growing short to avoid new downdraft.
Ultimately, this morning’s rally only attacked 2264.00. That’s still productive for the bullish WedEX. Negative territory was never touched, Friday’s highs were probed, and the rally was comprised of two aggressive uplegs.
It wasn’t influential enough to recover the 2260.25 bias-up signal by 10:15 to trigger it, or by 10:30 to invalidate no-bias — or to recover the 2267.25 bias-up target by 10:30. So, a test of this morning’s 2251.25 bias-down signal has become “unfinished business below.”
The WedEX influence lapsed with the morning bias environment. It is no longer influential. Triggering this afternoon’s 2261.00 bias-up signal would still be credible. Otherwise, back under 2257.50 would at least threaten the 2255.00 bias-down signal.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Dec 20, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar is quiet, at least domestically and intraday. But the Bank of Japan issues its decision on interest rates overnight.
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2265.25 | 2261.00 |
| …would target | 2271.25 | 2267.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2259.00 | 2255.00 |
| …would target | 2254.75 | 2250.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Influence on.
Early surge finally extends higher.
The overnight rally to 2260.75 created room to expend selling pressure without it yet damaging the chart. Pre-open action had pulled back to 2256.00. Holding 2255.00 post-open would have been optimal. Ultimately, the gap back to Friday’s 2254.00 cash session close was touched.
And then price shot higher. The opening 15 minutes of volatility to resolve up aggressively. This was an early clue to confirming a bullish WedEX influence remained alive for this morning.
The next clue did not develop, as bias-up did not trigger. More so, a post-open test of the 2260.25 bias-up signal held, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2251.25 bias-down signal. No grace period was invoked, and fresh highs through 10:30 didn’t invalidate the bias signal.
But fresh highs did print after 10:30. And the pattern’s 2259.75 buy signal got a benefit of the doubt from the bullish WedEX. That has extended up to 2263.50.
No matter how productive, the bullish WedEX lapses along with this morning’s bias environment at 11:30. And that’s now within view just 10-15 minutes away. The 2251.25 bias-down signal’s test will become “unfinished business below” unless the noon hour is entered above this morning’s 2267.25 bias-up target.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Sunday night’s opening surge had been consolidating in a relatively narrow, choppy range down to 2257.00. That’s been probed by another point, albeit only temporarily so far. Regardless of the opening print, the opening 15 minutes of volatility should make clear whether this morning will be influenced by a bullish WedEX.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.