S&P
Mid-day Update… Here it comes.
FOMC statement just moments away.
This morning’s noN-bias environment eventually dipped to 2260.25, still short of its potential to 2258.00. That’s more paralysis than pessimism ahead of the FOMC policy statement coming in 15 minutes.
Bouncing into and out of the noon hour triggered a late bias-up above 2266.75. The signal is still being overlapped, having produced only a 1 tick fresh high above the open’s 2267.75 peak.
Regardless of the statement’s particulars, reaction to it should be volatile, with a likelihood of probing fresh highs and also swinging into negative territory, both. Neither directly is likelier to precede the other, or not to be followed again by the other. And Yellen’s conference should start the process again.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Dec 15, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Five econ reports are released simultaneously before Thursday’s open. Two of them have a reliable track record for influencing price action. At least three are high-profile anyway. That should enhance volatility from any post-open reports.
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Current Account
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2271.75 | 2266.75 |
| …would target | 2276.50 | 2271.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2264.00 | 2259.25 |
| …would target | 2257.75 | 2252.75 |
| Signal status:LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Shades of pessimism ahead of FOMC.
Overnight dip extends, briefly.
Breaking under the overnight range’s lower-end probed under yesterday’s late 2265.50 lows down to 2262.75. Its post-open reaction touched 2267.75 before reversing back down, targeting a probe under the pre-open low. It was probed by 1 point down to 2261.75.
The reversal’s timing touched the 2264.00 bias-down signal in time to invoke the grace period. And after another retest of the low, 2264.00 was tested again. Tested again, but still being tested when the grace period lapsed at 10:30.
This is a noN-bias environment. Not a bias-down targeting 2258.00. Not a no-bias targeting a test of the 2270.75 bias-up signal. it is noN-bias, without any bias requirement this morning.
Fresh lows would still be likely to test 2258.00. Extending higher would still be likely to test 2270.75. Any resolution at all is hampered by strong-handed sponsorship generally sidelined just before a high-profile event like this afternoon’s FOMC.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight range’s upper-end was touched at 2268.75, and then reversed to fresh lows at 2263.50. All of which may be only increased volatility, but potential for constructive pessimism ahead of this afternoon’s events could encourage an attempt to break lower.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.