S&P
Mid-day Update… Right-turn, Clyde.
Reversal not yet confirmed, but the burden of proof has shifted.
Buyers have failed to exploit multiple opportunities to extend the rally:
o Last night’s opening surge didn’t form a required retest.
o Probing above Friday’s high was isolated to the overnight.
o The post-open probe above Friday’s high was isolated between the opening 15 minutes of volatility and the 10:15 bias timing widow.
o The post-open surge held a 61.8% retracement of the overnight reaction.
o And the bias environment’s test of the open’s low resolved down.
None of which is yet conclusive to signal the trend reversing down. This morning’s 2253.25 and this afternoon’s 2247.25 bias signals held off attempts to trigger them And now this afternoon’s bias signal is being tested, too late/early for its probe to be strong-handed sponsorship.
The bigger picture is vulnerable to beginning a multi-session pullback today. There’s no bearish reason for this afternoon not to be in decline already. Ranging narrowly sideways and then gapping down sharply tomorrow would be credible. Otherwise, any further delay would make last night’s high likely to be retested.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Dec 13, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s most influential economic event isn’t a report, but the 30-year auction, which greets a deeply-depressed market. None of the session’s actual reports is either high-profile or has a reliable track record of influencing price action.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2260.00 | 2254.50 |
| …would target | 2265.75 | 2260.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2252.50 | 2247.25 |
| …would target | 2247.00 | 2241.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Tried, tried again.
Post-open bounce shallower than overnight surge.
We got an extra probe above Friday’s highs, but nothing to invalidate that a multi-session downleg 
may be launching today.
Opening at this morning’s 2253.25 bias-down signal fluctuated there through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. That created congestion which was likely to be retested, whether only temporarily or on the way to reversing in the opposite direction.
Although probing above Friday’s highs had been isolated to the overnight, price broke higher anyway. It retraced 61.8% of the overnight retracement back up to 2259.00. Reacting down sharply again isolated the post-open break higher to between the 9:45 opening and the 10:15 bias timing window.
Reacting down sharply tested the open’s congestion, but only attacked the 2253.25 bias-down signal to within 1 tick. Breaking it 1 minute later was too late to invoke the grace period. Regardless, probing fresh lows through 10:30 has invalidated the no-bias.
Not a late bias-down, not a noB-bias, but invalidated bias. The parameters can still influence price if tested, but their tests aren’t required, and their tests aren’t required to resolve in any specific way. Exiting the bias environment above Friday’s high would target new highs.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The last overnight dip’s recovery has been contained within Friday’s range around its 2254.25 close. Not repeating the probe above it would isolate the fresh highs to the overnight, and launch a reversal down this morning under 2151.25. But back above 2256.40 would help this morning to at least temporarily probe back toward the overnight high.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.