S&P
Mid-day Update… Holding up, and out.
Is slow drift delaying the rally?
This morning’s 2207.75 renewed bias-up target held its test and retest, reacting down through the noon hour to 2201.50. Now a no-bias environment is fluctuating narrowly at the pullback’s lows.
Exiting the bias environment without already trending would be equally capable of resuming the rally, and of extending the pullback back into Friday’s range.
The latter would likely be only that, a pullback, since price action off this morning’s high has not been distributive. As for the former, probing above 2205.00-2206.50 would be likely to resume the rally, targeting a probe above last week’s highs.
Despite today’s (overnight) surge, no pullback is yet likely to reverse the trend down. Whether today or tomorrow, the rally is likely to resume. Only closing under 2187.50 would start to suggest differently.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Dec 6, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar has nothing with nay track record of influencing price action. That might be enough for its highest-profile item — Factory Orders — to get a reaction to even the slightest surprise..
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Gallup US ECI
2:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2209.75 | 2208.50 |
| …would target | 2214.75 | 2213.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2204.00 | 2199.75 |
| …would target | 2194.00 | 2192.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Trying to stay ahead of itself.
Surge resumes in time to confirm.
Gapping up to 2201.50 immediately touched the 2200.75 bias-up target. Exceeding it at 10:15 renewed the bias-up signal next targeting 2207.75. Actually, 2207.75 was already tested at 10:15 — twice, as high as 2208.75, but only overlapped. This is not a doubly-renewed bias-up environment.
Nevertheless, this being a bias-up environment, the window can range back down to its 2195.00 bias-up signal as support. A simple corrective dip would target 2202.50, with room for noise down to the original 2200.75 bias-up target. Last Wednesday’s 2210.25 anchor all but requires a retest. Its test should be the reward for returning to within its proximity after probing fresh lows, after finishing this morning’s pullback.
Any deeper of a pullback would tart to suggest today’s upside is done. Recall the premature surge ahead of Europe’s opens that I mentioned earlier? Well, it is now joined by the pre-open reaction down barely attacking Friday’s 2197.25 high to within 3 ticks, and to within 2 points post-open.
The impatient buying doesn’t prevent the upside momentum from expanding, but it makes that less reliable. And more so, it is undermining the upside durability.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight surge up to 2205.75 has been corrected almost 8 points down to 2198.00. That barely threatened to touch Friday’s 2197.25 high. Isolating the probe under Friday’s low to the overnight is all the more likely. That does not prevent backing-and-filling into Friday’s range down to 2191.00-2193.00. But it would likely recover and extend above overnight highs so long as a post-open dip doesn’t interfere with triggering the 2195.00 bias-signal. Otherwise, there’s plenty of room below for deeper backing-and-filling.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.