S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming Tuesday to 1.0650 stopped short of 1.0685 whose recovery would prevent retesting last week’s low to form a durable bottom.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Still fluctuating around 1191.50 resistance (basis Feb, 1188.00 basis Dec) instead of rallying above it doesn’t qualify as completing the current bottoming attempt, or as rejecting its vulnerability to probing a fresh low at 1170.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Rallying Tuesday probed above the 16.70 buy signal (basis Mar, 16.62 basis Dec) to 16.78, but still overlapped it to avoid completing the bottom.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming Tuesday further delayed resuming the continuation pattern’s break lower, which questions whether another bottoming pattern is forming. But the trend remains down unless closing above 154-19.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday night’s drop extended lower Tuesday morning to probe under Sunday night’s lows down to 44.80-44.85. Bouncing wasn’t recovered sufficiently to signal the pullback had ended, but closing above 47.60 would put into play fresh highs at 50.50.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Initiallly probing slightly higher Monday night, Tuesday only hovered and barely held 3.30 as support to avoid launching a pullback targeting at least two lower gaps outstanding.
Mid-day Update… A bigger bounce.
Morning’s bounce has extended.
This morning’s 2203.75 bias-up signal defined the bias environment’s upper-end, but only for as long as was necessary. A brief dip within 10-15 minutes of the bias environment lapsing was resolved by resuming the rally up to 2208.00.
Now the afternoon’s 2208.50 bias-up signal is being touched. It should define the afternoon bias environment’s upper-end — at least until coming within 10-15 minutes of the bias environment lapsing at 2:30.
Not yet resuming the decline for this long suggests that a bigger detour is underway. “Unfinished business above” at 2210.50, 2211.50 and potentially also 2220.00 are all possible on this rally leg. Albeit a temporary rally leg, since yesterday’s action all but ensures probing eventually under 2192.00.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Nov 30, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s calendar isn’t just busy, it’s very high-profile and influential. Two Fed speakers are the least of it. Reaction to the pre-open ADP helps to crystallize the reaction to Friday’s payrolls. And its reaction can be duplicated by the morning’s other reports. Staggering the release of the post-open Chicago PMI often signals a reliable expectation for its public release. And the afternoon’s Beige Book keeps alive volatility, while also speaking directly to how supportive conditions are for Fed action..
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Robert Kaplan Speaks
8:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
*Jerome Powell Speaks
9:15 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*Loretta Mester Speaks
12:35 PM ET
*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2210.00 | 2208.50 |
| …would target | 2214.75 | 2213.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2203.25 | 2202.00 |
| …would target | 2197.25 | 2195.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Sellers starting slowly.
Fresh lows hold support, already neutralize upside attraction.
Greeting the open essentially unchanged at 2200.00-2201.00 didn’t sit there still. A bounce quickly touched an inflection point at 2202.50. Any higher would have triggered a buy signal, but price quickly inflected down to fresh lows. Fresh lows barely touched the 2196.50 bias-down signal.
Price has since stair-stepped higher into a bigger bounce attacking the overnight highs. Holding a test of the bias-down signal through 10:15 put into play an offsetting test of the 2203.75 bias-up signal. It is now being probed by fresh post-open highs up to 2205.00. There’s another couple of ticks above it of room for noise.
Back under 2201.50 would signal that the bounce was only a temporary detour on the way to lower lows. Touching 2205.50 would raise the sell signal to 2203.00. Exiting the no-bias environment above its 2203.75 bias-up signal isn’t likely, and not likely to extend without at least retesting 2203.75 or 2000.00.