S&P
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Bouncing Sunday night held a brief test of the 1.0685 buy signal that would trigger if recovered through the close. Its reaction down dipped back under Friday’s lows to Wednesday’s afternoon highs, and only the briefest fresh low would be tolerated if the pattern is bottoming.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s bounce was retraced back down to spend Monday morning overlapping 1188.00 whose recovery would signal a bottom is forming.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sharply higher highs Sunday night up to 16.85 were retraced by Monday morning at least back under 16.62, whose recovery would otherwise signal that a bottom is forming, if not already formed.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing again Sunday night continued to delay a new downleg from the recent continuation pattern. But fresh lows remain likely so long as 154-19 is not recovered.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s drop was refueled by weekend headlines to gap down Sunday night to test 45.15. But that never extended before recovering through Monday’s open as the news turned more favorable. Back above 48.00 would help to confirm that at least a fresh high — potentially up to 50.50 — remains likely before a durable downleg would be credible.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Monday to test 3.28 helps to confirm the next higher target is in-play at 3.35-3.40. Back under 3.19 — especially by gapping down Tuesday — would suggest that gaps below 3.01 and 2.95 will be filled first.
Mid-day Update… Time to volley?
Still no follow-through to two attempted sell-offs.
The overnight drop to 2199.50 was recovered 10 points up to 2209.50 through the open. It was retraced to within 3 ticks after reacting down to 2201.25.
This afternoon’s 2208.00 bias-up signal held its test to avoid triggering. But this morning’s 2211.50 objective has become “unfinished business above.” Probing above 2208.00 at the bias environment exit would be likely to extend up to 2211.50.
Meanwhile, a deeper pullback has room to test 2202.00. Probing lower when the bias environment lapses would likely trend down through tomorrow’s open.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Nov 29, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s reaction to the Dallas Fed’s upbeat surprise gives every one of Tuesday’s reports added potential to trigger a reaction. Consumer Confidence is the likeliest, although strong housing sector data would also impact price action.
Stanley Fischer Speaks
7:45 AM ET
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
*William Dudley Speaks
9:15 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2210.00 | 2208.00 |
| …would target | 2215.50 | 2213.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2203.50 | 2201.50 |
| …would target | 2197.00 | 2195.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Cornered.
Post-open action is stuck.
The overnight plunge to 2199.50 had recovered pre-open to test 2207.00. The open attacked overnight highs up to 2208.00. Gapping down did not extend lower, so sellers are not strong-handed.
Ultimately, the 2205.50 bias-down signal held its test through the 10:30 grace period, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2211.50. That was produced by a favorable knee-jerk reaction to an inflationary econ report. But 2205.50 was quickly retraced.
And then some.
Now a fre3sh post-o0pen low has touched 2203.00, trying to reverse momentum down. Its objective would be to retest the 2199.50 overnight low. Exiting the bias environment above its 2198.00 bias-down target would make the 2211.50 objective become “unfinished business above.”
Invalidating the late no-bias is unlikely at this late stage. But it’s possible, and would have potential down to 2187.50.