Post-open Review

Modest opening grind undermines trending.

Fluctuating around 2355.00 pre-open continued to underscore the level’s relevance. But its attraction didn’t last into the open, which was greeted back down at 2352.00. Multiple tests of the 2349.75 bias-down signal held as support. But its reactions were brief and shallow.

2349.75 was still being overlapped both at 10:15 and 10:30 to trigger noN-bias. No offsetting test of the bias-up signal is required, nor is the bias-down target in-play. Fresh lows could test 2345.00, so long as a bounce doesn’t recover 2352.00.

None of which affects the bearish WedEX whose influence begins this afternoon. No higher objectives are in-play — the flat open didn’t create a gap, and holding 2355.00 left nothing higher in-play. Still, rejecting 2355.00 would have been more bearish, so bouts of buying pressure might not be done.

Opening bobble holds, triggers bias-up.

Narrowly consolidating the overnight rally extended for several hours into the open. Until the open. Suddenly, price blipped-up to test 2342.50. That was essentially the first half-minute. The balance of the first half-hour then trended down to test 2337.75.

Spiking up in reaction to 10:00’s econ report eventually extended up to 2344.50. Bias-up triggered, and its 2345.50 target is in-play.

A pullback now underway to 2340.00 could recover. Any recovery that prints just 1 tick higher will neutralize the target by coming to within 3 ticks of it. Otherwise, back under 2338.50 would start to signal the corrective bounce had failed already.

Taking long to break resistance. Again.

The overnight rally was still going at it before the open. The 2347.25 bias-up target, which is also the objective left outstanding yesterday, was attacked to within 3 ticks. One last pullback to 2343.75 surged 4 points to touch 2347.25 during the open’s first minutes.

Its reaction down exited the opening 15 minutes of volatility while still overlapping yesterday’s 2345.00 high. Only maintaining the gap up doesn’t qualify as extending it. Not extending meant sponsorship was having difficulty attracting reinforcements.

That didn’t prevent a 5-point surge to 2349.25. But it undermined it. The 2347.25 bias-up target was still being overlapped at 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-up signal. Now a pullback limit has been violated during a pullback to 2344.50.

The renewed target would have been 2352.00. It still could be met, since this is still a bias-up environment. Its test isn’t in-play, but would be signaled back above 2347.25. Meanwhile, back under 2344.25 would start to signal that this buying has only stretched the rubber band to be snapped back down.

Correcting the open’s rally.

Another pre-open dip greeted the open at 2336.75. Another bounce soon began. Exceeding 2339.00 suggested more than a correction underway. Filling the gap back to yesterday’s 2345.00 close was likely.

2345.00 was attacked to within 2-3 ticks. Which, apparently, was enough to neutralize its attraction. The reaction down extended to test the 2337.75 bias-down signal as support.

No-bias had triggered already. Cleanly at 10:15. Overlapping the bias-down signal it at 10:30 doesn’t qualify for invalidating what was already triggered cleanly at 10:15. An offsetting test of the 2347.25 bias-up signal is in-play.

Back above 2341.00 would signal the next recovery leg underway. Otherwise, The bias can now be invalidated by exiting the bias environment under the 2332.50 bias-down target.

Late surge extends beyond gap up.

The pre-open First Trade blog post and Market Tour had just noted the narrow overnight range. Stable, relative to Friday afternoon’s deep slide preceding it. But not already extending down overnight did create potential for a bounce that stretches the rubber band, which then snaps back down into another slide.

So far, bounce. But not, yet, slide. Gapping up to the 2331.75 bias-up signal fluctuated at 2329.00-2333.00, and eventually resumed the rally. When bias-up was triggering at 10:15, its 2337.25 bias-up target was already being tested.

This is a bias-up environment. Its target has been met. Back under 2334.00 would start to signal the rally is being reversed. The gap back down to Friday’s 2325.50-2327.25 closes would become an attraction, along with the gap back to the 2321.00 three-week old close. Exiting the bias environment above 2337.25 would suggest a bigger bounce underway.