Post-open Review

Dips recovering.

Last night’s initial probe above yesterday morning’s 2348.00 high had been retraced down to 2343.00. Another overnight bounce retested 2348.00, and then reacted down more deeply to 2341.00.

A post-open dip touched this morning’s 2339.75 bias-down signal. The next reaction up was more reserved than the overnight bounces, resisted at or under 2347.00 through 10:15 to trigger no-bias.

An offsetting test of this morning’s 2350.50 bias-up signal was put into play. Surging at 10:30 extended straight up to within 2 ticks of 2350.50. It has now been touched.

Actually, 2350.50 is now being probed. During the no-bias environment. This requires being retraced to at least 2350.50 — if not also to 10:15’s print at 2344.00. Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs are overbought at the 2352.25 high, so it must be retested if price were to react down.

Pre-open bounce holds resistance.

the overnight dip down to 2332.25 had recovered through Europe’s opens, at least attacking yesterday’s 2342.25 futures close. Hours of ranging around yesterday’s 2340.00 cash session close greeted the open.

Immediately trending up into yesterday’s range could have isolated sellers and reversed momentum up. But buyers couldn’t exploit the proximity and timing before price reversed down sharply. At 10:30, 2333.00 was being tested.

Now that the 2337.25 bias-down signal triggered cleanly, its 2331.00 target is in-play. And a fresh post-10:15 low makes it exponentially more difficult to invalidate the bias-down, by exiting the bias environment above the 2350.50 bias-up signal.

Recovering 2350.50 seemed very unlikely at 2333.00. Then price spiked back up to 2342.00. Invalidation is still a stretch, but some sort of detour become likelier the longer that 2337.25 maintains its recovery.

Gap up maintained, not extended, and not defended.

Opening at least 1 point above yesterday morning’s 2376.00 high was almost half the battle to trending up this morning. Maintaining the gap up through the open was a lot of it, too.

The missing link was to actually extend the gap up. But 2376.00 was still being tested when the opening 15 minutes of volatility lapsed. Which is not in itself bearish, but it certainly opens the door.

A very wide door, apparently. The 2374.00 bias-up signal was broken and not triggered. An offsetting test of the 2364.75 bias-down signal was put into play. And it was probed by 2 points at 10:30. Then by another 10 points a half-hour later.

The probe under 2364.75 was also overlapping 2364.75, or else it would have invalidated no-bias. So, is probing under 2364.75 “no-bias trending?” Yes, unless the bias environment exit at 11:30 is under the 2359.75 bias-down target, too.

That looks likely, with 2351.50 being tested now. While RSIs are oversold, and 3-minute RSI is persistently oversold. The next major objective below would be 2342.00.

Back above 2357.50 would instead trigger a bounce. Recovering 2359.75 through 11:30 would next be attracted back up to 2364.75, and potentially also to 2368.00.

Gap down holds, bullish WedEX intact.

There was nothing bearish about the open’s pattern. It was not redundant to repeat the overnight low’s retracement to 2370 50, where Wednesday’s FOMC reaction had originated. Its retest targeted 2369.50, which was touched. And 1-minute RSI all but diverged positively on its retest.

Reacting up from both tests wasn’t bearish, essentially proving the level is relevant.

Even delaying the bullish WedEX influence wasn’t bearish. But it’s at least optimally bullish, so long as the opening 15 minutes of volatility did contain the low. A late push higher touched the 2375 75 bias-down signal in time to invoke the grace period, and ultimately triggered it by a 2-tick 2-minute margin. Also not optimal. But also not bearish.

An offsetting test of the 2380.00 bias-up signal is now in-play.

The late push accomplished invoking a grace period. That gives the push’s sponsorship more credibility. Now, a fresh high above 2376.00 would be helpful, since RSIs diverged negatively there. Regardless, only fresh session lows could threaten to prevent 2380.00 from becoming “unfinished business above.”

No-bias means no morning rally.

Pre-open probes above the 2380.75 overnight high came so late that their sponsorship was likely weak-handed. Maintaining either probe to produce a gap up, and then extending it, could have been credible. That didn’t happen. The actual inflection point triggered under 2378.00.

Rallying this morning was likely to rally almost immediately, preferably gapping up. The alternative is likely down, but not necessarily aggressively. So, the late failed surge already had warned us that buyers would be marginalized this morning.

Separately, three oft the first hour’s five 15-minute checkpoints have overlapped unchanged. This suggests a dry cleaners morning.

And now no-bias has signaled. Neither bias signal was touched, so no offsetting test of the other bias parameter is required. There’s room to dip so long as the 2375.25 bias-down signal defines the timing window’s lower-end.

Could that dip include a visit to the 2370.50 area? Yes, while also requiring its recovery. Neither is a requirement, perhaps only as a temporary knee-jerk reaction to a headline before the bullish WedEX’s influence this afternoon.