Post-open Review

Vulnerability at upside target proves out.

Touching this morning’s 2367.50 bias-up target pre-open triggered a reaction down. Its resistance was still influential, regardless of not yet having been put into play at 10:15 by recovering the 2362.75 bias-up signal.

In fact, it wasn’t put into play. No-bias has triggered. The reaction down consolidated at 2362.75, but it was broken at 10:15 on the way down to 2358.50.

Holding a test of the bias-up signal has put into play an offsetting test of the 2354.25 bias-down signal. A test of the 2348.25 bias-down target isn’t officially in-play, since the 2367.50 bias-up target wasn’t touched post-open. But having touched it only 3 minutes prior to the open does warrant monitoring for its offsetting test, too.

Meanwhile, “unfinished business above” at 2366.00 was neutralized. The opening print is a couple of ticks higher and has yet to be filled —  but the first minute’s bar was retested from below, so I’m dismissing that possible upside attraction as too trivial to prevent extending down more substantially today.

Pre-open dip holds support.

Attacking yesterday’s low down to 2355.25 a couple of hours before the open did not extend. Bouncing greeted the open essentially at 2357.50, which is yesterday’s afternoon bias environment low.

A “session-long decline” setup had formed. But would it trigger? Holding the prior low’s test would accomplish the opposite effect. Expending enough selling pressure to produce all off the setup’s bearish elements, but not exploiting it, would be a gift to buyers.

In fact, post-open action did not extend down under 2357.50. Fluctuating between 2356.00-2359.00 ultimately held the 2356.75 bias-down signal’s test, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2366.00 bias-up signal. Already, fresh post-open highs are printing 2361.50.

The session-long decline setup wasn’t optimal. Yesterday’s futures did slide sharply, hiding the gap down. So, the consequence of a session-long rally isn’t reliable. Nevertheless, we’ll monitor for that potential of probing fresh highs through all but one intraday timing window.

Regardless of its degree and duration, a recovery is likely so long as 2357.50 holds as support. The recovery must create some new higher attraction to maintain the rally, or else this morning’s weak open will have been only a warning shot across the bow.

Open’s surge renews bias-up.

Last Wednesday’s close had triggered a bullish WedEX signal. Its influence Friday afternoon has extended into the next US morning. As it should, regardless of the Globex action since Friday.

Gapping up to 2353.00 has extended single-mindedly, if not also relentlessly. The first relevant hesitation was well above last week’s highs attacking 2360.00. Persistently overbought 3-minute RSI indicated that 1-minute RSI diverging negatively would likely resolve up.

In fact, the 2361.00 bias-up target was exceeded through 10:15 up to 2363.50. This renews the bias-up signal, next targeting 2365.00-2366.00.

The bullish WedEX’s influences lapses along with the bias environment at 11:30. Extending higher any later or for any longer would not be associated with WedEX. All upside attractions will have been neutralized, including the very recently created “new Globex trend extreme.” The renewed bias-up signal and its target are not requirements.

i.e. Nothing requires extending higher this afternoon, or prevents reversing course back down.

Regardless, new highs are not a sell signal. And trend extremes don’t happen into and/or out of expiration. Overbought RSIs at the 2263.50 high would require its eventual recovery in case a corrective pullback were to develop first.

Holding support before this afternoon’s WedEX.

Yesterday’s 2336.75 low had been attacked to within 1 tick overnight. It was pierced by 1 point before the open. It was touched only two minutes before the open, and held.

That’s just noise, and not stretching the rubber band so it can snap back up. Its reaction was likely only to test 2343.00. Attacking it to within 1 tick was reversed to touch the 2339.75 bias-down signal. And only touch it.

No-bias triggered cleanly, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2348.25 bias-up signal. Already piercing a fresh high up to 2343.25 after 10:15, invalidating the upside objective is possible only by exiting the bias environment under the 2337.25 pre-10:15 low.

Nothing requires recovering this morning. But if not yet rallying through the noon hour, then the bullish WedEX would have little excuse not to rally into the weekend.

Flat-to-lower open trades lower-to-flat.

The overnight slide had extended down to 2344.50 before bouncing into the 2348.00 open. And through it, up to 2349.75. That tested the bias-up signal by 3 ticks, which held through 10:15 to trigger no-bias.

An offsetting test of the 2342.00 bias-down signal was attacked to within 3 ticks or less. It won’t become “unfinished business below” if left outstanding. Yesterday afternoon’s 2342.25 bias-up signal was also retraced to within 3 ticks, neutralizing its required retest.

Selling done? Possibly, but that wouldn’t default back to rally mode. This IS a no-bias environment. In fact, bouncing up to 2347.75 is reacting down sharply back to new session lows.

Meanwhile, nothing has changed about the timing, which enables a deeper retracement before even consolidating. But now the 2342.25 bias-down signal should define the window’s lower-end, at least to not let a break stray too deep.