Post-open Review

Sliding into and out of the open.

The 2291.25 overnight high had recovered a reaction down to 2286.50. But no higher. And no longer. Trending down to fresh overnight lows greeted the open at 2284.00. Extending down post-open touched 2281.00.

Bouncing back up to 2286.50 avoided triggering the 2283.50 bias-down signal. So, holding its test has put into play an offsetting test of the 2292.00 bias-up signal.

It’s too late to invalidate the bias signal at 10:30. The task is now left to exiting the bias environment back under the 2283.50 bias-down signal. That is, unless without printing above the pre-10::15 2286.50 high.

Back under 2282.25 would start to signal that invalidation is underway. The 2277.75 bias-down target wouldn’t be in-play. But the likely objective would nevertheless be 2275.00-2277.00.

Otherwise, back above 2286.50 would confirm the no-bias signal, and its 2292.00 target.

Overnight rally maintained through the open.

Extending the rally this morning still isn’t assured. Neither does the rally require it. The open provided 2-1/2 bullish factors that allow time to consolidate.

First, gapping up to 2293.00 was maintained above yesterday morning’s 2291.50 high. A dip tested it, and then recovered to a fresh high at 2295.00.

Second, that fresh high was a 9:45 test of Friday’s 2294.00 high. Impatient buying had not tested it before then. Not recovering it at 9:45 doesn’t have implications either way. This is actually worth only a 1/2, since exceeding 2294.00 or else not touching it at all would be cleaner.

Third, the 2291.25 bias-up signal triggered. Its 2296.75 bias-up target is in-play.

Less bullish is the 2295.00 opening high having come within 3 ticks of the 2295.25  bias obligation outstanding from yesterday. Its attraction above it is now neutralized.

There’s not yet any fresh post-open high since triggering the bias signal at 10:15. Until there is, the bias-signal can still be invalidated. A detour down to 2290.50 would threaten to prevent the higher attraction from becoming “unfinished business above.”

Gap down holds test of bias-down signal.

A late probe of fresh overnight lows has been retraced into and out of the open. Its recovery was potentially bearish, filling the gap back to Friday’s futures close so that its attraction is now neutralized. Recovering the late dip is also potentially bullish, having put into play fresh highs.

The 10-point drop down to 2284.00 had bounced enough for the open to touch 2286.25 and then extend higher. Being this morning’s bias-down signal, holding its test through 10:15 has put into play an offsetting test of the 2295.25 bias-up signal.

Touching 2286.25 post-open was likely in a bullish scenario, and recovering 2288.00 led the scenario to include testing 2290.75. The objective was met, and retested, but not yet actually exceeded.

Reacting down to 2287.25 should be only a temporary corrective dip before resolving up. Invalidating the bias signal became much more difficult when price probed a fresh post-open high after 10:15.

Back above 2290.00 would start to signal the recovery was resuming. But not yet recovering when the bias environment begins lapsing could require a deeper dip to 2281.00 before bottoming.

lede .

The Employment Situation report was greeted at Thursday morning’s 2279.75 high. Its knee-jerk reaction spiked up and extended to Wednesday morning’s 2285.00 high. Extending higher greeted the open near the lowest of last Friday’s “higher prior lows” at 2287.25. Reacting down almost immediately post-open held 2283.00, and has recovered to attack 2292.00.

The 2287.25 bias-up target was still being overlapped at 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-up signal. It’s still a bias-up environment, but not required to extend higher. Exiting the bias environment above 2290.00 would still target new highs, potentially up to 2327.00.

Meanwhile, the opening strength represents a test of last Friday’s “higher prior lows.” This natural resistance is capable of triggering a steep and/or deep corrective drop. But there’s room back down to 2286.25 before another dip can’t be considered only a temporary pullback.

Pre-open and post-open selling is absorbed.

REMINDER: I WILL BE UNAVAILABLE AFTER NOON TODAY, FOR THE BALANCE OF THE SESSION. THERE WILL BE NO MARKET WRAP.

The overnight drop bottomed within 2 ticks of this morning’s 2264.00 bias-down target. Its recovery peaked at this morning’s 2270.75 bias-down signal. The open’s dip to 2267.00 was recovered back up to 2270.75, and then through it.

Fresh highs at 10:15 filled the gap back up to yesterday’s 2275.00 close to within 1 tick. That was the minimum reward for not selling off through the open. Additionally, holding a test of the bias-down signal has put into play an offsetting test of the 2278.75 bias-up signal.

Back under 2270.75 at 10:30 would invalidate the bias signal. No requirement then to decline, just a greater vulnerability. Otherwise, sellers could be marginalized for the day.

Marginalized doesn’t mean dormant. Sellers, or buyers, may yet launch substantial efforts today. Thursday afternoons ahead of a Friday’s Employment Situation report often become paralyzed by anxiousness. But the opposite today wouldn’t be surprising since volatility preceding yesterday’s FOMC wasn’t very restrained. Neither was volatility following it, already makes Friday interesting.