Post-open Review

noN-bias takes the edge away from sellers.

Ranging around this morning’s 2095.50 bias-down signal began reacting down into and out of the open, Bouncing to attack 2098.00 was reversed down to 2091.50, twice. But the 2095.50 bias-down signal was still being tested at 10:15 to invoke the grace period.

And it was being retested at 10:30 to avoid triggering. This is not bias-up requiring fresh highs. It is not no-bias requiring fresh lows. It is noN-bias, requiring nothing.

Fresh highs above 2097.00-2098.00 (being tested now) would still be credible for extending higher, isolating the overnight dip, and eventually rallying more obviously this afternoon. Breaking under 2093.00 would still be credible for probing lower, but not necessarily so low as to reinstate the decline.

Opening dip recovered in time, attacked too late.

The open’s dip to 2099.50 was also a test of the 2100.50 bias-down signal. Its reaction probed above overnight highs to 2106.50. Triggering no-bias after holding the bias-down signal’s test through 10:15 put into play an offsetting test of the 2109.50 bias-up signal.

A pullback into 10:30’s EIA announcement became a plunge as the announcement triggered Crude Oil dropping further. The 10:30 bar probed under the bias-down signal, and under the opening low. But it also overlapped the bias-down signal, and didn’t qualify for invalidating no-bias.

So, an offsetting test of the bias-up signal remains the likely resolution after the current dip is done. And it could be done after testing only 2093.50, not necessarily testing yesterday’s 2091.00 low required by its oversold RSIs.

Back above 2101.25 would signal the late plunge had ended already. A very aggressive move to fresh highs would be likely. Otherwise, a fresh low under 2097.00 would target 2093.50 and potentially also probe under 2091.00.

Essentially straight down since the open.

Opening at 2125.00 quickly began sinking. The 2124.25-2125.00 intraday resistance held, and the gap back to yesterday’s close was filled down to 2119.50. Lower and lower lows have extended down to 2115.50.

The 2117.75 bias-down signal defined support momentarily, and now it is defining resistance. Overlapping it at 10:15 has invoked the grace period through 10:30.

An optimal “late bias-down” would probe under 2115.50 through 10:30. Probing under Friday’s 2112.50 low would allow a bottom to form, but its test is likely to visit 2105.00. And that would be vulnerable to extending down to 2095.00 and 2082.00.

Not triggering the 2117.75 bias-down signal at 10:15 might bounce back up to yesterday’s 2120.00 and 2120.75 futures and cash session closes. That’s also yesterday’s “higher prior lows.” Further strength than that would be unlikely.

Still overlapping 2117.75 at 10:30 would trigger “noN-bias” and have now required outcome today.

lede .

The pre-open 5-point bounce up to 2129.00 was retraced almost entirely to open at 2125.25. Flat-to-lower since then has attacked 2121.25, whose test early enough could have been predictive. It’s still support, which is why attacking it just reacted up to 2125.25. But its test was too late to reveal whether sellers are weak-handed, or gaining sponsorship.

This are is also unchanged. Unchanged, compared to both Friday’s cash session and futures closes. So, it is natural support, and it’s not being challenged with any momentum that might better enable breaking through it or snapping back from it.

That suggests a “dry cleaners morning,” which is either unlikely to trend or will fluctuate unpredictably. The likely resolution is down, but a bounce is possible while awaiting sponsorship’s arrival. There is meanwhile room to fluctuate between the 2117.50 and 2131.00 bias signals, both of which were tested or attacked overnight.

Opening chop didn’t avoid negative territory.

Isolating the overnight probes under yesterday’s lows could have launched a massive short-squeeze. Although the open and the bias timing window probed well into negative territory, the 2125.25 bias-down signal didn’t trigger.

The 2131.25 bias-up signal didn’t trigger either. “Late no-bias” triggered by ultimately holding a test of the bias-down signal through 10:30. An offsetting test of the bias-up signal is now being fulfilled.

Not isolating the overnight probes doesn’t prevent a bounce to 2137.50 or higher. In fact, the bias-up signal is being probed, currently up to 2143.50. This might become a massive short-squeeze, but anything above the 2131.25 bias-up signal during a no-bias environment is “no-bias trending” that requires a complete retracement back down to 2131.25.

The 2126.00 10:15 print is an attraction, too. More than undermine a short-squeeze, it might be a catalyst to reverse momentum for probing overnight lows into the weekend. Volatility today remains likely, whether by trending substantially, or by reversing a significant trending attempt.