Post-open Review

Opening surge snaps back down, hard.

The pre-open test of this morning’s 2687.00 bias-down target became a Double Bottom whose RSIs diverged positively. Bouncing before the open pulled back to extend even higher post-open, surging to resistance at 2697.00.

Gapping down under yesterday afternoon’s 2687.00 bias environment low could have formed a bearish session long decline. It wasn’t even tested at the open, so the alternative isn’t necessarily bullish. In fact, the post-open surge was retraced to probe 2 points under yesterday’s lows down to 2683.25.

The post-open surge held a test of the 2695.00 bias-down signal, and the 10:15 bias window was overlapping its 2687.00 bias-down target. Bias-down is not renewed, but this is still a bias-down environment. Extending any lower would next target 2682.-2683.00, and there’s no bullish reason to revisit it now.

Meanwhile, another bounce is now testing the 2688.00-2690.00 range’s upper-end. Back under 2684.50 would signal the decline is resuming. A bigger bounce might form, but I’ll be focused on the downside since early sellers were a little too easily absorbed to be confident they’ve been expended.

Post-open lows react up sharply. Then fail, more sharply.

A pre-open blip-down had pierced the 2708.00-2709.00 “lower prior highs” I described during the Market Tour. Its reaction up to 2715.50 revealed the inherent support there, as suspected there would be. But an intraday test would be optimal for the purpose of reversing the overnight trend back up.

So, post-open action slid to 2705.50.

That was more than 30 minutes following the open, before one bar finally didn’t overlap 2708.00-2709.00. It also probed a fresh low, making it a “detached bar” that reflects sentiment either becoming extreme, or making its extreme.

It was the latter, and price began firming. Then rallying. And pretty quickly, surging more than 10 points to touch this morning’s 2718.25 bias-down target as resistance. Perhaps a little too quickly. In fact, too quick of a reward, as China trade headlines triggered a sell signal. That has plunged to fresh lows at 2699.50.

Regardless of the decline’s degree, entering the noon hour back above 2708.00-2709.00 — preferably already exiting the bias environment higher — would suggest that sellers are done. Meanwhile, oversold RSIs at the low require its eventual retest. And extending down would next target 2688.00-2690.00.

Pre-open recovery and post-open surge crumble.

Ranging sideways through midnight between 2730.00-2735.00 had broken sharply lower to 2724.50. All of which was still within yesterday afternoon’s range. And all of which was recovered before the open up to 2733.00 and then post-open up to 2736.50.

All of which has been reversed to probe under the overnight low down to 2722.25. And all of which is within yesterday afternoon’s range.

Meanwhile, the 2727.75 bias-down signal has triggered, putting into play its 2720.75 target. A bounce would be likely to fail and the trend is likely to resolve down. But a bounce does have room to probe the 2727.75 bias-down signal and room for noise up to 2730.75 before suggesting a bigger detour underway to the upside, instead.

Gap up, extending, and extending again.

Rallying 10-11 points out of Europe’s opens had tested 2728.25 before correcting down to 2724.75. That began a narrowing range which formed an Ascending Triangle. Greeting the open at its upper-end almost literally exploded higher.

Resistance at 2732.50-2733.25 pushed price back down to the pre-open Triangle’s 2728.25 upper-end in time to avoid renewing the bias-up signal. It’s still a bias-up environment, and fresh highs just attacked 2735.00.

Extending higher would next target 2737.00, and potentially 2743.50, on the way to the rally’s 2751.00 (revised) target and its room for noise up to 2757.00. Otherwise, RSIs haven’t reflected any enthusiasm, and back under 2730.25 would target 2726.25, potentially lower.

Breakout attempt fails.

The narrow 2701.00-2709.00 overnight range persisted through the open, which was unchanged at Friday’s 2704.50 close. A couple of probes lower down to 2699.50 and 2697.00 each recovered back to or through unchanged. Ultimately, the 2698.75 bias-down signal held its test as support through 10:15 to trigger no-bias, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2710.25 bias-up signal.

So, straight up from here? Not necessarily. Unchanged at 2704.50 is natural resistance, and has yet to attract reinforcements above its tests. Back under 2699.50 (being pierced now) could trigger a retest of Friday’s 2695.50 low, which would probably include 2694.00. Back above 2703.00 and 2707.00 would confirm that the bias-up signal’s test is underway.