Post-open Review

Pre-open and post-open dips absorbed.

The pre-open rally had tested the 2124.25 bias-up signal, and its reaction had tested the 2114.50 bias-down signal. That was pretty close to the open, but it didn’t equate to being a post-open test of the bias-down signal.

The open’s surge up to 2122.25 reacted down to 2114.75. Another bounce reacted down to 2114.50. Those were post-open, and pretty close to the bias-down signal. But they didn’t qualify as tests, either. And the second test’s reaction up started suggesting that sellers were marginalized.

Holding a test of the bias-down signal would have put into play an offsetting test of the 2124.25 bias-up signal. No need for that — bias-up triggered.

The 2128.00 high that printed by 10:15 has yet to be exceeded. Until it is, the bias-up can still be invalidated by exiting the bias environment back under the 2124.25 bias-up signal. Back under 2123.25 would start to signal momentum reversing down. Exiting the bias environment under its 2114.50 bias-down signal would still put into play its 2109.00 bias-down target.

Otherwise, the 2131.00 bias-up target is in-play. While sellers are marginalized for the morning, fulfilling the bias-up target would be an opportunity for today’s session to peak. Beware of sudden and substantial reversals during this expiration cycle.

Pre-open dip does end-run around sellers.

Timing is everything. This morning’s pattern was unlikely to range narrowly. If not resuming the decline, then a little more backing-and-filling to the upside would be likely.

Breaking under the overnight range at the open would have reflected strong-handed intraday sellers. Breaking under the overnight range BEFORE the open only inhibited post-open sellers. So, the 2120.50 opening print surged up to 2125.50, attracting buyers instead of sellers.

Sellers still had something to get out of their system, and produced another dip. But now the dip was originating well AFTER the open. Its downside potential was limited. And even that limited potential only attacked the 2115.50 bias-down signal to 2117.50.

Backing-and-filling to the upside didn’t trigger the 2130.50 bias-up signal. It was probed, but still overlapping it at 10:30 didn’t invalidate the no-bias — regardless of extending to 2134.50, or its overbought RSIs there. And somewhat confirming no-bias remains intact, an 11-point reaction down just attacked 2123.00.

Back above 2128.00 (being tested now) could launch a retest of the 2134.50 high’s overbought RSIs. Back under 2124.25 would start to signal the reaction down had resumed, that a decline required no more backing-and-filling before resuming.

Post-open buying efforts meet bigger selling.

The open immediately probed 6 ticks under the pre-open low to 2131.25. That was the first 5 minutes, and it seemed pretty productive. But that was nothing. The next 5 minutes reacted up 8 points to touch 2139.00. Still bigger was yet to come.

The first half-hour ended by sliding 14 points to test 2125.00. And the decline has since extended to 2117.50.

The bias environment is being exited in a downtrend. The objectives are to retest yesterday’s post-open and overnight lows. And for having maintained the overnight downtrend, the decline is as vulnerable as possible to become uglier than Friday’s relentless intraday slide.

Recovering 2134.00 through the close could be the only credible invalidation to otherwise resuming Friday’s plunge with a vengeance.

Counter-trend bounce.

The overnight test and retest of 2100.25 had recovered up to 2114.00 pre-open. The opening print was essentially the 2110.75 bias-down target. And post-open action was only optimistic.

The initial surge barely hesitated until filling the gap back to Friday’s 2120.50 cash session close. Its reaction down to 2115.00 was recovered to test the 2124.75 bias-up signal. But bias-up was attacked only to within 1 tick instead of invoking the grace period.

The 2124.75 bias-up signal was probed AFTER triggering no-bias. IMMEDIATELY afterward. Too late to trigger or to invoke the grace period. But maintaining its recovery through 10:30 invalidated the no-bias. So, probing the bias-up signal this morning isn’t no-bias trending.

2129.50 was touched. Its 1-min RS diverged negatively and now 3-min RSI is leaving overbought territory. Back under 2123.25 would signal momentum reversing down. Extending higher would be unlikely to exceed 2134.00 through a relevant timing window — but that doesn’t preclude probing above it temporarily.

Overnight slide extending sharply lower.

Surely, you don’t need me to tell you that the 2167.25 bias-down signal triggered. And you probably know already that its 2162.25 target was exceeded in time to renew the bias-down signal. You also know its renewed bias-down target is 2155.00. But you might not have known that it, too, was exceeded through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. And its renewed target is 2149.75.

2149.75 was initially only overlapped by the 2149.00 low. A bounce to 2154.00 returned down to test 2149.75  It has now broken lower to 2145.25.

Simultaneously oversold RSIs at the 2149.00 low are now followed by oversold RSIs at 2145.25. Any bounce is doomed to failure. And a Friday’s bias tends to persist through the noon hour. A test of the 2140.00 area could develop quickly,

Otherwise, back above 2153.00 is needed to trigger a corrective bounce targeting at least 2156.50, if not also 2162.26. And 2153.00 is a long way above.