Post-open Review

Taking a little long to recover.

The 2584.00 open was extended to 2577.00, where a bounce attacked the 2588.00 bias-down signal to within 2 ticks into the 10:15 timing window. Bias-down triggered, and its 2581.00 bias-down target has been retested down to 2577.50. RSIs avoided becoming oversold during both dips. There is no unfinished business below.

Already recovering to avoid triggering bias-down would have been bullish, putting into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters. Already recovering above yesterday’s 2585.00 last relative low would have been bullish to signal that sellers are weak-handed.

Although the bias-down target held to avoid renewing the bias-down, this is still a bias-down environment. Recovering back above its 2588.00 bias-down signal by noon could neutralize the bearishness of not having recovered 2585.00 through the open. Otherwise, extending the decline has room to test 2567.00 before a much deeper reversal can begin.

Selling not isolated, but possibly temporary.

Opening AT yesterday morning’s 2569.00 low was already not in the spirit of an Isolation setup. The door remained open to post-open selling, which attacked the 2560.50 overnight low down to 2562.00. Its recovery was overlapping the 2571.00 bias-down target at 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down target.

But this is still a bias-down environment. Within 5 minutes price had collapsed 8 points. And 5 minutes later the collapse was recovered. Recovered, and soon extended up to the 2579.00 bias-down signal. But this is still a bias-down environment. The bias-down signal’s test as resistance should define the window’s upper-end.

The bias-down signal’s test as resistance includes room for noise up to 2581.00, which is being tested now. Yesterday’s 2582.50 and 2586.25 closes could be tested, too. The 2579.00 bias-down signal must still be retraced, unless the bias environment is exited above its 2590.75 bias-up signal to reject the bias-down. And rejecting the bias-down is the only near-term bullish development possible.

Gap up navigates tweets and headlines.

The pre-open pullback testing 2575.00 had held above the earlier Globex low to avoid its Flip setup. Attacking 2586.00 before the 2583.00 opening print — both being above yesterday’s highs — had avoided an Isolation setup. Neither bearish setup was forming, so the likelihood for this morning to probe higher remained intact.

None of which will ever be strong enough to prevent tweets and headlines from triggering negative knee-jerk reactions down. But attacking the market at a position of strength is still likely to recover. And sell signals have been pierced only in reaction to news, and then only overlapped. Stretching the rubber band continues to snap back up.

The challenges did prevent exceeding the 2586.50 bias-up target at 10:15 which would have renewed the bias-up signal. But this is still a bias-up environment, free to continue probing above yesterday’s highs this morning, if not also to trend toward the 2606.0 target.

Back under 2582.00 could test the 2577.00 bias-up signal as support, where either the pullback extends even lower, or else snaps back up again.

Two competing influences battle over the open.

Maintaining the open’s gap up above yesterday afternoon’s 2567.50 high formed several bullish setups.

None of which prevented immediately reversing down to touch yesterday’s high. And extending down beyond the first hour to probe the entire 2548.00-2555.00 range down to 2547.50.

So much for the session-long rally setup. It was formed by gapping up above yesterday’s close, after having trended down into yesterday’s close. Rejecting it by 9:45 could have become as bearish as the setup would have been bearish. Instead, the late reversal only invalidates the otherwise bullish setup. It can’t be reinstated, but another bullish setup could take develop separately.

Meanwhile, traction sellers gained by yesterday afternoon’s sellers had created a position of weakness. Its influence only prevents a rally from gaining traction. Closing back above the upper-end of the 2548.00-2555.00 range could still extend the rally. But closing under the 2548.00-2555.00 range’s low would reverse momentum down.

Reversal attempt fails, upside rules.

The open was greeted at the 2532.00 earlier Globex low. The Globex-flip setup was formed, and could only trigger or not trigger. A dip to 2526.50 was recovered halfway through the opening 15 minutes of volatility, missing an opportunity to suggest that bearish reinforcements were being attracted. Still overlapping 2532.00 at 9:45 was a missed opportunity to entrench a reversal down.

But momentum had not reversed up. Another dip tested the 2524.50 bias-down signal, and also recovered. Fresh post-open highs up to 2540.00 weren’t maintained in time to trigger the 2537.00 bias-up signal. Which the grace period was still testing, to trigger noN-bias.

Not no-bias which would require an offsetting test of the bias-down signal. Not bias-up requiring meeting its target. But noN-bias, which could fluctuate or trend regardless of the bias parameters.

Actually, having failed to reverse the momentum down, we had been discussing the likelihood for probing higher anyway. Friday’s session-long setup was still likely to probe or trend higher this morning. And the failed Globex-flip could be as bullish as it would have been bearish. But “no-bias trending” would have required retracing down to the bias-up signal, a noN-bias rally wouldn’t require retracing.

Currently, the 2551.75 overnight high is being attacked to within 1 point; it doesn’t require a retest. The bear market rally’s 2548.00-2555.00 target area is being met; it doesn’t require a thorough test. Back under 2543.00 would start to signal momentum reversing down. The rally is otherwise free to extend higher.