Post-open Review

Optimistic open has yet to push higher.

A pre-open surge through 2569.00 had probed fresh overnight highs up to 2574.00, before greeting the open back down at 2569.00. A few post-open points lower reacted up to attack 2578.00.

2578.00 is a 61.8% retracement of yesterday’s high-to-low drop, and its resistance held. Now 2569.00 is being tested again as support.

All of which is taking place in a bias-up environment. Renewed. A reaction down has room down to the 2558.25 bias-up signal as support, but no requirement to test it. Back above 2574.50 could extend up to 2595.50, and still maintain the decline’s momentum.

RSIs don’t reflect any increase in buying pressure, so not actually trending up soon would become very vulnerable to unimpressed sellers pushing price back down.

Opening plunge’s retracement only resets the opening plunge.

Last night’s bounce up to the 2616.50 bias-up target had been retraced down to 2602.00 through Europe’s opens. A couple of times. The second time fell further, probing under Friday’s lows to greet the open at the 2593.75 bias-down signal.

Price promptly plunged through the opening 15 minutes of volatility to fresh lows at 2571.00. The next half hour recovered to attack 2593.75 to within 2 points, reacting down enough and in time to trigger bias-down.

The 2586.00 bias-down target held to avoid renewing the signal, but this is still a bias-down environment. The drop is free to resume, especially under 2581.00 — whose test just reacted up 13 points.

Today’s opening print was within last Monday’s range, so it is not a gap down under all prior lows that would require being retested from above. A rally here would leave no unfinished business below. However, that same opening structure undermines the gap back up to Friday’s close from being filled.

That said, back above 2595.50 could test 2622.00, back into Friday’s and last night’s ranges, while still being likely to resume the decline. The next lower objective is 2530.00-2538.00, probably on the way down to 2500.00.

Post-open bounce stops short of its potential.

Eking higher from the 2617.25 overnight low go to 2631.50. Dipping into and out of the open tested Tuesday’s 2625.75 low by 3 ticks and bounced. Two more pullbacks also recovered on the way to probing the 2638.75 bias-down target by 1 point, retracing 61.8% of the overnight drop.

RSIs diverged negatively, and the next pullback didn’t stop until probing the opening low down to 2623.00. But having held a test of Tuesday’s low as support through the opening 15 minutes, its retest after 10:15 was likely to hold, too. Which it did, now reacting up to 2636.00.

Holding support, and stopping pessimistically short of touching yesterday’s 2641.25 “higher prior lows” suggest that sellers are marginalized for the morning. Probably. But not maintaining its recovery above 2636.00 keeps the door open just enough.

Back under 2627.25 would give another downleg a chance to form. Otherwise, fresh highs could recover positive territory.

Bias-up eventually triggers, ultimately fails.

A struggle of wide swings triggered bias-up. A late drop invalidated it.

The overnight low’s dip back down to this morning’s 2651.25 bias-down signal had recovered pre-open to test the 2665.25 bias-up signal. Quickly surging up to 2673.00 was reversed back down to 2657.00. Another more substantial surge triggered bias-up signal, and attacked its 2676.75 bias-up target to within 2 points.

But reacting down retraced the bias-up signal through 10:30 — barely, but in time to invalidate that it had triggered. It’s not required to be the window’s upper-end. Its bias-up target isn’t required to be met. And an offsetting test of its bias-down signal isn’t in-play.

In fact, despite invalidating the bias-up, another rally leg is free to begin, and would likely be very productive. Meanwhile, fresh post-open lows are attacking 2655.00. Its break would suggest reinforcements had arrived, if only to retest yesterday’s lows.

Retesting yesterday’s highs.

The overnight rally was punctuated by a pre-open surge up to 2677.00. Just a few ticks under yest4erday’s pre-open high, which we assumed to be pessimism and potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.

Its post-open reaction down broke under 2666.00 and met its minimum likely target at 2661.50. Then the entire reaction was retraced to touch yesterday’s pre-open high. Touch, and only touch, which is still pessimism and potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.

Maintaining the upside momentum would keep in-play 2687.00, which is the likely minimum target for having confirmed backing-and-filling to the open. Extending that can be even more rewarding — potentially 2702.50 and 2725.25. Meanwhile, another reaction down is retesting 2666.00, whose break no longer has so much a target as a consequence, that the recovery is failing.