Post-open Review

Post-open rally tests Wednesday’s highs.

The overnight rally up to 2666.00 ultimately corrected pre-open down almost 11 points to attack 2655.00. The open wasn’t greeted much higher, but it had soon surged back up to 2666.00. And then higher to attack 2672.00, essentially Wednesday’s highs.

The upper-end of the range. Resistance.

Another tick higher to 2672.00 would have allowed a higher pullback limit and sell signal. Another minute higher would have made a pullback likely to persist through the morning. But the minimum likely retracement target was met anyway in an attack on 2662.00.

The pullback could extend lower and persist longer, but neither is necessary. Regardless, the test of Wednesday’s high is getting a benefit of the doubt for forming a bullish base. While not helpful, a deeper pullback could test 2646.00 or 2639.00 before signaling last week’s decline has resumed.

Post-open bounce still triggers bias-down.

Overnight ranging between the 2636.00-2645.00 bias-down parameters had broken lower within 30-60-90 minutes before the open. And not by a little, sliding quickly to retest Wednesday’s night’s low by 1 point down to 2626.00.

Its reaction greeted the open already testing a 2630.75 buy signal. Although it would have made a more credible bottom to first retest the overnight low, the first half-hour extended up to 2643.00. Nevertheless, RSIs diverged negatively into its retest, stopping 6 ticks short of even touching the 2645.00 bias-down signal.

This is a bias-down environment. Its bias-down target was already met, and not broken through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. But RSIs continue deteriorating, and the reaction down is now testing 2633.50.

The 2636.00 bias-down target is still support. Exiting the bias environment above it would normally suggest that sellers had lost traction. Today the bias environment exit is essentially the early close. Extending down under overnight lows would next target a retest of 2603.00.

Not rejecting overnight bounce.

Rallying overnight from its initial dip to 2632.25 had recovered to attack 2660.00 through Europe’s opens. Its reaction down was recovered ahead of pre-open econ reports up to 2667.00. Still another reaction down attacked the 2650.50 bias-up signal as support post-open, which held through 10:15.

This is a bias-up environment. Its 2661.00 bias-up target has been probed three times post-open, most recently up to 2666.00. But it wasn’t exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal, so no higher highs is required.

That said, probing higher anyway is possible, up to 2668.75 if not also to test 2678.00. Like the pre-weekend Friday Factors, the morning’s bias signal can persist through the noon hour ahead of illiquidity. Again, neither is required, and back under 2656.75 would start to signal momentum reversing back down — while participation and volume evaporate ahead of the holiday.

Next lower TWO targets met.

Market Tour had just finished noting there was nothing bullish about the 3-hour 2673.00-2681.50 range, when the drop resumed. Extending down to 2650.50 pre-open fulfilled the decline’s next lower target at 2654.00.  The low printed at 10:15.

A post-open bounce up to 2661.50 resolved down sharply to 2633.75. And that fulfilled the decline’s next lower target at 2635.00. Reacting up targeted 2658.00, the room for noise in retracing the last downleg. Even that has extended higher to 2668.50.

The decline’s next two lower targets met, not only during the same session, but during the same window.

Closing back above a relevant level would suggest a durable bottom is forming. Two candidates are 2678.00 and 2688.00. But there’s no requirement for a bottom, let alone a recovery, especially if 2654.00 fails to hold a retest as support.

Pre-open drop struggles to hold.

The quasi Globex-flip setup did test its 2729.00 earlier Globex low post-open. But the level held through the opening 15 minutes of volatility to avoid triggering the setup. Neither was it rejected decisively, and it did require ignoring Friday’s noon hour high. So, its resolution may not be bearish for failing to form.

But the open’s resolution was bearish, anyway. Two inflection points at 2734.00 and 2732.25  held bounces, each time their  errant ticks resolving down to a fresh low. And the second resolution has been very productive:

This morning’s 2727.75 bias-down target, and its 2720.75 renewed bias-down target are both met. But probing them down to 2716.00 was recovered back above 2720.75 through 10:15 to avoid a doubly-renewed bias-down. Still being a bias-down environment, and having simultaneously oversold 1-min and 3-min RSIs at the low, fresh lows are now testing 2710.25.

Already meeting its targets doesn’t affect whether this is a bias-down environment. The bearish WedEX may be aggressively productive for the next hour, regardless of only absorbing post-open buyers, and despite not actually trending down through 9:45.