Post-open Review

Opening slide extends down sharply.

The 2793.00 opening print is also this morning’s bias-down target. Exceeding it through 10:15 renews the bias-down signal. Some support along the way lies at 2788.00, but the renewed bias-down target is essentially 2781.00.

Which was already met.

Quickly falling out of the open soon entered a choppy 5-6 point range around 2788.00. It resolved down to 2778.25. The renewed bias-down target was essentially being tested at 10:15 to avoid doubly-renewing the bias-down signal.

Regardless, this is still a bias-down environment. A bounce has room to 2787.50 (being tested now by 5 ticks) whose recovery would start to signal a bigger recovery underway. Meanwhile, oversold RSIs at the low require a retest, which would be signaled underway back under 2782.00. Extending the decline would next target 2764.00.

Bias-down is triggered, but not extended.

The 2801.50 pre-open low was recovered to test the 2808.75 bias-down signal as resistance. The open was greeted back down at 2804.00, and consolidated back up to eventually recovered up to 2813.25 through the first half-hour. Hovering there never gained momentum, and price soon collapsed.

The collapse has held 2805.00, and along the way it triggered the 2808.75 bias-down signal. Another bounce up to 2811.00 is also becoming a collapse back down to post-open lows. The 2800.75 bias-down target is in-play.

Exiting the bias environment under yesterday afternoon’s 2793.50 low would be credible for extending down this afternoon. That’s not the only path down, but their numbers dwindle as time goes by without much success by this morning’s sellers.

Pre-open dip helps absorb post-open surge. Which recovers anyway.

The pre-open pullback from 2787.00 ultimately extended down to 2773.50. But the open remained no less vulnerable to a short-squeeze than if the pullback were shallower hadn’t extended so far. So, the 2779.25 open did get squeezed, and the opening 15 minutes of volatility pierced the overnight high by 3 ticks.

However, that was no longer a probe above overnight highs, but its retest. Rather than create that much more room to absorb a post-open dip, the pre-open pullback absorbed the post-open surge. Its reaction fell back to through the 2779.25 open to within 3 ticks of the 2773.50 pre-open low.

That was just the first half-hour. Another upleg since then is probing fresh highs up to 2792.75.  It’s so far just retesting the 2787.00 area, which exiting the bias environment back under 2785.00 would signal had held. Back under 2776.00 through any relevant window would signal the overnight trend reversing down.

Otherwise, not rejecting the post-open rally and extending higher would next target the 2811.00 area, and potentially much higher — where there’s room for another corrective peak, compared to the actual high.

Already neutralized unfinished business above.

Reacting down overnight consolidated under the 2738.00 earlier overnight low.After having probed yesterday’s highs, exiting the open any lower would have triggered a bearish Globex-flip setup. And forming but not triggering the setup would be as bullish as it would have been bearish.

Meanwhile, a couple of other bearish setups could be triggered by opening under 2730.00. Which was certainly being tested, and for quite awhile overnight. But not already probing lower before the open had made a post-open probe less likely.

So, we were prepared to take early action on surging through the 2737.00 open through its calculable 2738.75 buy signal. Yesterday’s highs were quickly recovered, on the way to filling the gap back up to Friday’s 2751.25 open.

Retesting 2751.25 has tried reacting down to attack 2745.00. But this is now a bias-up environment, and back above 2749.25 (being tested now) should extend the rally to at least 2753.25 or even higher. Back under the 2743.25 bias-up signal would start to signal momentum reversing down, but it would require a retest unless the bias environment were exited under its 2734.50 bias-down signal.

Post-open surge collapses, for awhile.

An extended narrowing range had finally broken higher after Europe’s opens.It extended to 2729.50 but retraced back to the overnight range’s 2720.00 upper-end. The rally repeated into and out of the open, extending higher to 2733.25. That also reversed back down, this time to fresh lows at 2717.00.

Along the way, the 2728.50 bias-up signal held its test through 10:15, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2709.50 bias-down signal. A fresh post-10:15 low has helped to confirm.

None of which is preventing a bounce, currently attacking 2728.00. Almost any higher for almost any longer would start to signal fresh highs in-play.

Meanwhile, the 10-point bounce is more likely oversized for having dropped 16 points high-to-low, and 2726.75 resistance (being tested now) is likely to hold. Back under 2723.25 would start to signal the bounce was done, and the drop has resumed.