Post-open Review

Pre-open bounce attracts more selling.

Dropping overnight down to 2913.25 had been retraced to attack Monday’s 2922.50 low to within 2 ticks. And then a dip to 2918.00 was recovered up to Tuesday’s late 2924.00 low. That’s where the open was greeted, and it was happy to see the recently inflated pricing.

Recent upside momentum didn’t attract post-open reinforcements. It was overwhelmed by a quick dip to 2919.25, where a reversal setup was only briefly influential, too shallowly to reverse momentum up.

A lower low also bounced from 2917.75, where any lower would be a lot lower. Its bounce also failed, and a 16-point plunge touched 2905.50 before the first hour ended.

A recent low at 2707.50 that was always attacked optimistically short — yet, still productive in its reactions — is now being tested. This leg’s minimum objective is 2901.00, but more likely to 2896.00-2897.00.

Currently a bounce to 2912.00 may be completing another temporary corrective bounce before resuming the decline. But there’s room up to 2917.25 before even suggesting a more substantial corrective bounce underway.

Gap up extends.

The overnight recovery back up to yesterday’s 2936.00 highs had formed an Ascending Triangle. It began breaking higher before the open, fluctuating narrowly around the 2939.25 bias-up target. Post-open action fluctuated a little more widely around 2939.25, but ultimately resolved up to 2944.75.

That’s within 2 ticks of the renewed bias-up target, essentially neutralizing it. However, it’s still a structural attraction from the high session’s gap up. And being within its orbit makes its actual test likely.

That may have to wait, as a reaction down is attacking 2938.00 as support. Any lower would target 2933.25-2934.00. Meanwhile, back above the 2942.00 area should resume the rally, now targeting 2947.50-2950.00.

Flat open fails to exploit pre-open recovery.

The overnight drop ultimately touched 2917.50 before recovering to open at 2928.00. And that soon extended to touch the 2930.75 earlier Globex high through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Its recovery would have formed a bullish Globex-Flip, but the setup was attempted too late to be relevant.

Meanwhile, the 2928.00-2929.50 range’s resistance wasn’t entirely recovered. What had been “lower prior highs” from above, is now resistance from below. Yesterday’s close within its range at least prevented the intraday drop from reversing the trend back down. But the open didn’t recover it.

The 2925.25 bias-down signal avoided triggering at 10:15. It also avoided being touched by then, so  no offsetting test of its bias-up signal is required. However, probing under it after 10:30 is “no-bias trending” that requires being retraced.

In fact, probing under 2925.25 to 2924.00 has snapped back up to fresh post open highs attacking 2932.00. The price action is more evidence that sellers lack sponsorship — at least the pattern remains vulnerable to recovering.

But another failed recovery attempt would make fresh lows likelier. And fresh lows would threaten yesterday’s 2922.50 low, undermining the open’s Isolation setup, and the potential bottom.

Pre-open dip attracts post-open buyers.

The relentless overnight rally to 2937.75 faced the challenge of attracting post-open reinforcements. Often it does not, as overnight sponsorship starts selling and must be absorbed.

Today’s setup had a better chance of extending, because its news was a paradigm shift from recent perceptions. Helpful would have been a pre-open dip to negate the relentless label.

In fact, a 6-point pre-open dip to 2931.75 did inject pessimism, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Already firming 2 points pre-open, extending higher recovered the 2937.75 overnight high through the open. That was also the renewed bias-up target, and exceeding it at 10:15 renewed the bias-up signal. Doubly-renewed, which is much less reliable. But it’s still a bias-up environment.

2942.00 was just touched. Its 2940.50 pullback limit is being tested, Violating it back under 2938.75 would trigger a correction targeting 2933.75-2934.50. Extending higher at any time would next target 2945.25.

Overnight drop fails to attract reinforcements.

The overnight drop ultimately extended down to 2908.00. Despite being within 2 ticks of Wednesday’s low, that doesn’t qualify as neutralizing its retest. But you wouldn’t know it from subsequent price action, which attacked 2914.00 pre-open, and 2917.00 post-open.

The proximity to retesting prior lows, the attempt to retest them, the gap down — all under this morning’s 2916.25 bias-down signal. If sellers can’t exploit these conditions, then they probably can’t, not today. And they didn’t

After invoking the grace period, a “late no-bias” triggered. And it triggered at a post-10:15 high to help confirm. Extending even higher since 10:30 is further confirmation that a test of the 2924.50 bias-up signal is in-play.

Currently, the bounce has reached 2922.25. We won’t consider an aggressive sell signal until the bias objective is met. And that’s not to say its test will resolve in one direction, or the other. Being a Friday, the afternoon will be vulnerable to only ranging sideways.