Post-open Review

Open’s test of unchanged pauses the recovery.

The overnight drop’s recovery had rallied 15 points up to 2861.00, and still had time for an 8-point pullback. And that was already recovering to greet the open at 2859.00, on the way up to unchanged at 2863.50.

Unchanged, and also a 61.8% retracement back up to yesterday’s high. Natural resistance, and it resisted. Another pullback tested the 2857.75 bias-down signal. Twice.

But as expected, a bigger bounce is likely. Holding the bias-down signal’s test has put into play an offsetting test of the 2866.25 bias-up signal (now being attacked to within 3 ticks), probably up to 2867.00, potentially up to 2869.50. Back under 2860.00 would start to signal the bounce was done.

Gap up maintained, bias-up renewed.

The overnight rally up to 2864.75 had pulled back pre-open down to test the 2861.50 bias-up signal’s support. The open was greeted by a surge through the two-week old range’s 2863.50 highs. It quickly began consolidating at the 2866.25 “unfinished business” left outstanding from that prior range.

2866.25 is also this morning’s bias-up target, which is also resistance. Nevertheless, breaking higher attacked 2870.00. Its reaction down 3-point reaction down held up through 10:30 to renew the bias-up signal. The renewed bias-up target at 2873.00 is in-play.

2873.00 isn’t required, but it is likely. Meanwhile a pullback has room down to 2865.50 or even to 2864.00 before even suggesting momentum is reversing down. Which it very well may, having expended so much buying pressure so quickly without yet probing above the pre-10:15 high. It’s also not unusual after gapping up through a prior range for a pullback to test its upper-end as support.

Gap holds up, buyers hold out.

Multiple factors in place at Friday’s close had already suggested probing higher this morning. The bullish WedEX and the rally’s trending traction, most prominently. Last night’s “new Globex trend extreme” has been added to the list. And post-open behaviors suggested that sellers are weak-handed.

But despite the 2854.50 bias-up signal holding several tests as support, it did not trigger. More so, still being overlapped at 10:15 AND 10:30 has triggered noN-bias. The bias-up target isn’t in-play, but neither is an offsetting test of the bias-down signal.

While noN-bias often behaves like no-bias, simply hovering at the bias signal, earlier price action suggests sponsorship won’t be comfortable in a narrow range. Either fresh post-open lows or post-open highs is likely this morning.

The lower-end of the range is being tested now, but almost any strength on volume would be credible for probing fresh highs.

Choppy open holds support, sort of.

No specific resolution is required from this morning’s opening behavior. Not for lack of trying to trigger a signal, but none was tested when it would have been predictive.

Another fresh low before the open had tested 2835.50. Its test through the opening 15 minutes of volatility would have indicated the 2836.75 bias-down signal was likely or unlikely to trigger 30 minutes later. But it was only tested pre-open.

And the 2836.75 bias-down signal wasn’t tested post-open until coming within 3 minutes of the 10:15 signal to invoke the grace period. Still testing it at 10:30 triggered noN-bias, so this morning has no bias requirement. A bias target isn’t in-play, no offsetting test of the other bias signal is required, and neither bias signal is required to hold its test.

In other words, there’s no objective or influence this morning.

Back under 2835.75 would be credible for dipping anyway, probably to test the 2830.50 bias-down target. Currently, that’s being avoided by surging up to 2841.00, and any higher could extend to or toward the 2848.50 bias-up signal — but not as a required offsetting test of the bias-down signal, because its test wasn’t rejected in time to be predictive.

Gap up maintains, slow to extend.

The overnight rally testing 2837.00 had pulled back pre-open to test 2832.00 as support. That was Friday morning’s low, and the upper-end of the range whose recovery would extend the overnight rally. Its reaction through the open did probe fresh highs up to 2839.00.

At least, the gap up was maintained. But it didn’t extend. No higher high printed until after the first half-hour, and then grudgingly by 2 ticks a half-hour later.

Nevertheless, expectations remained intact for filling the gap back up to Tuesday’s 2841.00 close. It’s being tested now. Potential remains alive for probing it up to 2844.50, which would be vulnerable to another corrective dip. Ultimately, however this test of 2841.00 resolves, not reversing this morning’s recovery makes the retest of 2864.00 and higher likely back in-play.