Post-open Review

Overnight consolidation resolves up.

The 2837.50 open was greeted by a relatively narrow 2832.50-2838.00 overnight range. That ended abruptly by surging to 2843.75, which also ended abruptly by retracing entirely back down to the 2837.50 open.

The 2839.50 bias-down signal held its test to trigger no-bias. An offsetting test of its 2848.75 bias-up signal is in-play. Dipping to test 2839.50 was still overlapping it through 10:30, which did not qualify for invalidating 10:15’s cleanly triggered signal.

Choppiness since then has worked back up to within 1 tick of 2843.75. This includes improvement since the 10:15 signal, which is its only confirmation available other than actually fulfilling the bias objective.

Early to bed, too late to rise.

Retesting the overnight low was supportive. Not just for being the overnight low, but also for being within 1 tick of this morning’s 2813.75 bias-down signal. The retest held, and the open was greeted at 2818.50.

Not a gap up. In fact, a gap down from yesterday’s 2821.00 close. And gapping up was necessary to resume the rally this morning.

Resuming the rally can be attempted this morning, but it would be doomed to failure. Actually, rallying through the open has neutralized the attraction back up to yesterday’s 2823.00 opening gap up. Probing it by 3 points didn’t prevent reversing down 6 points, triggering no-bias. An offsetting test of the 2813.75 bias-down signal is in-play.

Probing above the bias-up signal now would only be “no-bias trending.” And that would require being retraced, unless it were to extend above its 2829.50 bias-up target through the bias environment lapsing.

Higher high likelihoods getting carried away.

As suspected, reversing the overnight uptrend back down was so difficult and unlikely that post-open action was likelier to extend the overnight rally. Already testing and retesting last week’s 2818.00 highs overnight had essentially fulfilled Friday’s Isolation setup. But as I described during the pre-open Market Tour, I would be reluctant to short before the room for noise had probed fresh highs of at least 2821.00.

A new rally leg sliced through that on the way to 2824.50. Another consolidation formed into the open.

The next higher objective would be the renewed bias-up target (assuming the 2817.50 bias-up target were exceeded through the 10:15 bias timing window). A sudden opening surge suddenly sliced through it on the way to attacking the next higher objective of 2829.50 within 3 ticks.

That post-open leg gave us insight into room for a pullback down to 2823.50. Until then, the rally had been sponsored by the Isolation setup, and its objective to retest last week’s highs. That buying pressure was being satisfied, and price had been higher only for a handful of days during the last week of January.

The actual pullback stopped at 2824.00, and now another rally leg is testing 2831.25. Exiting the bias environment above 2829.50 would put into play the next higher objective at 2836.00. Back under 2828.00 would threaten at least a detour that refuels buyers back down to 2821.00.

Choppy open stuck in negative territory.

I had suggested this morning’s worst-case scenario would be to honor both the bullish Isolation setup and the bearish WedEX influence by only ranging narrowly through the morning. Nope. It’s the bearish WedEX influence that is all but destroying the bullish Isolation setup, which being stuck in negative territory.

The bearish WedEX has absorbed a pre-open bounce to 2802.50 which had tried to trigger the Ascending Triangle that had formed. Also absorbed is the post-open bounce to 2803.50. Both were reversed to test this morning’s 2798.00 bias-down signal.

The first dip to the bias-down signal was in time to trigger it above 2803.50, but it held. The second test was in time to invalidate it, but it held again. And the second test came AFTER having triggered no-bias, which puts into play an offsetting test of its 2806.50 bias-up signal. Now a reaction up is testing 2801.00.

So, ranging narrowly this morning is still not off the table. Ranging narrowly, or choppily, but only briefly in either direction. Whether or not bearish WedEX is more influential Friday’s afternoon, its influence still delays a recovery window. And it keeps open the door to fresh lows.

Two bullish signals, and a wild card.

Overnight testing and retesting of 2793.50 doesn’t necessarily dictate intraday action. Regardless of its proximity to the next lower target of 2791.25, only post-open action could put it into play. Maintaining an open under 2804.00 would have done that. That’s where the open was greeted, which improved from there. So, 2791.25 is not in-play.

The overnight low and its retest both reacted back up into yesterday’s range above 2800.00-2802.00. The second reaction’s recovery persisted through the open, which forms an Isolation setup. Isolating the probe under yesterday’s lows to the overnight — so long as yesterday’s 2800.00-2802.00 lows continue holding — is usually rewarded by retracing the overnight probe’s origin. That’s 2818.00.

Meanwhile, this morning’s 2802.25 bias-down signal was touched post-open. Holding its test through 10:15 has put into play an offsetting test of the 2811.00 bias-up signal. The bias-down target was tested overnight, but only overnight, so its offsetting test isn’t required.

The Isolation setup identifies context. Its afternoons don’t necessarily extend the morning’s direction. So, we’re still monitoring for the bearish WedEX afternoon influence.