Post-open Review

Holding negative territory, but not exploiting it much either way.

The 2666.00 open blipped-up to test 2668.00, stopping pessimistically short of filling the gap back up to yesterday’s close. Gradually sliding to 2659.50 stopped optimistically short of touching the 2658.50 overnight low. The next half-hour ranged choppily between 2661.00-2665.00.

It’s not so much indecision, as it is working out the loose ends. Which they never did, not really.

Still overlapping the 2663.00 bias-down signal at 10:15 AND 10:30 triggered noN-bias. The bias-down target isn’t in-play, and the bias-down signal need not define the window’s lower-end. In fact, a surge to fresh session highs just filled the gap at yesterday’s 2670.00 close to within 1 tick.

Having tested the bias-down signal, triggering it would have all but ensured extending yesterday afternoon’s slide. Not triggering bias-down after testing it would have all but ensured retracing the slide. Triggering noN-bias only enables a probe above the 2672.00 overnight highs, but doesn’t ensure retracing the slide.

Quick opening surge creates post-open room to retrace.

The overnight range’s late surge had attacked 2676.00. It was reversed down as quickly as it had surged. Reacting down into and out of the open pierced the 2668.00 bias-up signal as support. It was reversed as quickly as the overnight reversal.

And the overnight reversal was recovered. Surging through the opening 15 minutes of volatility pierced 2678.00. The next 15 minutes added another point.

Exceeding the 2674.00 bias-up target through 10:15 has renewed the bias-up signal. This essentially puts into play a test of 2684.25. More important, it creates a position of strength for the chart to absorb counter-trend sponsorship.

Speaking of which…

The open’s entire rally has been retraced back down to 2668.75. It behaved as if there was a headline catalyst, but I haven’t seen it. Regardless, the position of strength makes the rally likely to resume. Back above 2674.75 (being tested now) would all but confirm.

Otherwise, there is a path down. Probing fresh lows through the bias environment exit would start to suggest that 2674.00 has held, and that its room for noise is not an attraction.

No, that’s not a blind date. It’s today’s buyers.

The market drifted pessimistically lower into the pre-open Employment Situation report. The range’s 2623.00 lows had been probed to test this morning’s 2620.00 bias-down signal. The knee-jerk reaction blipped-up to 2629.50.

Then the blip-up was retraced entirely, and more. Fresh lows greeted the open at 2616.00 and blipped-down to attack 2612.00. Which was retraced entirely, too.

Trending straight up since then has continually peaked pessimistically short of projections. A 61.8% retracement of yesterday’s late afternoon and overnight ranges also reflected pessimism. All of which was “ineffectual pessimism” as there was no reaction down, and the pattern is resolving up anyway. Even now, the earlier ranges’ highs are inhibiting fresh post-open highs from extending above 2633.50.

No-bias has triggered, and having held a test of the 2620.00 bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the 2638.25 bias-up signal is in-play. Back under 2625.25 would start to signal a detour underway.

Duplicating yesterday afternoon’s plunge.

The overnight bounce into the 2635.00-2638.00 area had not yet proved its sponsorship was strong-handed. A pullback into the earlier overnight channel barely hesitated before plunging through it to 2617.00. A close-quarters Double Bottom at the low told us to expect lower lows. Ranging sideways into the open did resume the decline, first a little and then a lot, down to 2594.00.

And now even more, as a brief bounce to 2601.00 resolved down to 2591.25.

This low is reacting up, not yet enough to reverse the trend up. But at least a corrective bounce would start to be credible back above 2600.00 (being tested now), targeting 2607.00. Recovering into positive territory would be difficult, and very unlikely… so, that much more substantial if actually done.

Meanwhile, the dominoes are falling. The next lower objective is 2588.00, and under 2584.50 would have little hope of avoiding the longstanding objectives at 2509.00-2511.00.

Yesterday’s follow-through limited to overnight probes.

The overnight recovery to 2658.50 touched this morning’s bias-up signal. But it was too early for its rejection or its recovery to be predictive. Nevertheless, its resistance reacted down to greet the open at 2649.00.

Which could have sufficed for a shallow gap down that resolves up. And may yet. But so far the gap down has extended, or ranged flat-to-lower attacking this morning’s 2642.00 bias-down signal to within 1 tick. That’s not an actual test, so the it’s not an actual rejection. In other words, the rubber band wasn’t stretched enough for more than a shallow snap back up.

The reward for upside traction gained yesterday afternoon may be limited to the surge through the Globex open or its subsequent retest. But the reaction down didn’t produce a gap down sufficient to offset that upside traction. So, fresh highs this morning aren’t assured, but backing-and-filling up toward overnight highs could react favorably to this afternoon’s FOMC event. Greeting the event from under 2642.00 would be unlikely to rally.