Post-open Review

Relentless overnight rally retraces entirely.

Having probed 5 points above yesterday’s highs to test 2688.00, maintaining a gap up would have been reliable for trending up this morning. Odd. Ongoing “ineffectual optimism” since Friday’s low had been suggesting the entirely opposite resolution.

Either an overwhelming opposing undercurrent was emerging, or else the overnight rally’s optimism would be rejected. The overnight rally had last formed a Symmetrical Triangle. The pattern tends to break falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. But that reversal would have to be underway through the opening 15 minutes of volatility.

Already sliding greeted the open at 2682.00. Choppiness tested the 2683.00 bias-up target as resisarameters were rejected, putting into play offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters at 2663.50 and 2655.25. The low so far is 2666.00. The signal triggered late, so its objectives aren’t required. They’re likely anyway, since the signal triggered late while probing fresh post-open lows.

More significant is all but confirming the trend is down. Yesterday’s low was itself shallower than the interim price action deserved. Recovering the 2683.00 bias-up target would suggest otherwise. Meanwhile, bounces are likely to fail.

Bearish WedEX preventing rally, at least.

Rallying into the open had recovered back into positive territory. But the 2667.00 open ticked down relentlessly throughout the entire opening 15 minutes of volatility to test 2668.00. That also tested the overnight lows, which were likely to extend down more substantially before recovering. Still are.

Meanwhile, a couple of bounces have extended to test 2676.00, but the 2675.50 bias-up signal didn’t trigger. This is a no-bias environment. And having held a test of the bias-up signal, an offsetting test of the 2665.50 bias-down signal is in-play.

Like the overnight dip, post-open dips are stopping optimistically short of their potential. Or, as is now the case, short of their objective. Being a no-bias environment, this morning is unlikely to trend down. But the 2665.50 bias-down signal can break lower as the no-bias environment starts lapsing.

So long as sellers remain in control this morning and don’t allow a recovery above the 2675.50 bias-up signal, the balance of the morning is likely to remain under pressure. And although the bearish WedEX influence ends with the bias environment, trending down further remains possible — if not likely.

Pre-open rally is retraced.

Trending down into and out of Europe’s opens had tested 2683.00. It was recovered before the open to fresh overnight highs testing 2698.00. That’s positive territory, and it could have launched a morning rally… if maintained.

It wasn’t. And it didn’t.

Already dipping to fluctuate around unchanged, the open was essentially flat with yesterday’s 2692.00-2693.00 close. The open trended straight down from there. The overnight low has been retested to within 2 ticks of the earlier 2683.00 test.

The 2688.00 bias-down signal triggered along the way, targeting 2681.75. There’s no assurance of it being met within first detouring into a corrective bounce — there’s no assurance of it being met, at all, only a likelihood. Back above 2691.00 would start to signal a much bigger detour up underway. A bounce is now testing 2688.00 as resistance, too late to invalidate that it triggered.

Meanwhile, trending through the open on expiration often establishes the session’s trend. And Friday morning’s bias often extends through the noon hour. Then comes the bearish WedEx’s afternoon influence. None of which require the slope to be any steeper, but any of which suggests that bounces will fail.

Post-open dip holds lower levels long enough.

Down, down, down. Overnight action already had neutralized the “unfinished business below” at oversold RSIs from yesterday’s 2703.75 low. Lower lows before the open fulfilled more unfinished business below at yesterday morning’s 2702.25 no-bias parameter. This morning’s 2698.75 bias-down target was also tested before the open.

The open blipped up to 2702.25, then reversed down to fresh lows at 2692.25. Down.

The 2698.75 bias-down target was recovered just in time to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. Downside momentum became questionable, especially with attractions below had been neutralized. But their breaks were maintained through the open to indicate the trend is reversing down.

Maintaining a dip through a relevant window doesn’t prevent a bounce. An entrenched downside can encourage a bounce as a temporary correction. Bouncing this morning to 2703.50 might be one such temporary correction. Unless it recovers this morning’s 2705.50 bias-down signal — preferably as the bias environment lapses — then the trend remains down.

Bias-up target’s test reverses down hard, momentarily.

The overnight rally had extended up to this morning’s 2718.25 bias-up target. Not intraday, but overnight. In an ongoing setup likely to trend up post-open. Reacting down was likely, but so was a recovery.

Reacting down, no problem. The open was greeted back at the 2711.50 bias-up signal. Recovering, problem. Bouncing out of the open peaked upon testing 2716.00, and reversed down to fresh lows at 2709.50.

There already was no bullish reason to revisit 2711.50 after testing 2716.00. Fresh lows tested 2704.00. This is a no-bias environment, putting into play a test of its 2702.25 bias-down signal for having held a test of the bias-up signal.

A bounce is now testing the 2711.50 bias-up signal. It’s too late to trigger, and it’s too late for its recovery to invalidate that it didn’t trigger. It should hold, or at least hold its test before resolving down to fulfill the test of 2702.25. Extending higher anyway would only be doomed to failure later.