Post-open Review

Making up for 2-1/2 days without trending.

Recovering into the open had tested and retested 2745.00. Post-open action was all about resuming the decline. Having formed a Rising Wedge off of the 2733.00 overnight low, retracing it entirely during the opening 15 minutes of volatility at 9:45 could have ended selling pressure. Not even attacking 2373.00 during the open would have allowed a bottom to form at 2735.00.

The open didn’t quite get to 2733.00, and a later test of 2735.00 didn’t quite hold. Rejecting the relentless overnight selling wasn’t likely. Already, the next lower objective at 2726.00-2727.00 is being tested.

Oversold RSIs at the low will require its retest if a bounce were to develop before RSIs could leave oversold territory. There’s no requirement to drop any further today, but that’s the vulnerability until a bottoming pattern were to form, or unless the noon hour is entered or exited above at least 2735.00.

It’s not a breakout, but selling hasn’t resumed.

Pre-open attacks on 2761.00 was retraced down to 2755.00 before the open. The quick discount allowed the open to surge even more quickly. All the way back up to attacking 2761.00. Its reaction down was recovered to test 2763.00, and its reaction down was recovered to 2765.00.

This is the 2764.75 bias-up target, which fulfills the 2759.75 bias-up signal. Regardless of bias-up having triggered late, and regardless of now having fulfilled its target, this morning is still a bias-up environment. The morning bias signal tends to persist through the noon hour on Fridays.

The bias-up environment may only fluctuate back down to its 2759.75 bias-up signal. But developing almost entirely above 2758.00 suggests that pullbacks will be absorbed. And fresh highs would be entirely credible for extending higher. Exiting the bias environment under 2758.00 would start to suggest that sellers are gaining traction.

Being stuck in a range doesn’t equate to being comfortable there.

After recovering from the overnight dip to 2745.00 by midnight, a range formed up to 2762.00, and down to unchanged at 2754.00. Testing the range’s lower-end before the open attacked 2752.00. Retesting the range’s lower-end post-open pierced 2752.00. Both tests recovered to at least 2760.50.

And the last two tests of 2760.50 reacted down to attack unchanged at 2754.00. They’re chipping away at its support.

Breaking lower to test the 2747.50 bias-down signal was almost required. But the 2759.50 bias-up signal’s ongoing test triggered noN-bias — not no-bias. Back under 2754.00 would still threaten fresh session lows, potentially extending to 2747.50 and 2745.00.

Meanwhile, noN-bias is less likely to trend. Ranging is already likely just for the bias timing window through 10:15 having developed entirely within yesterday’s late range. Trending this morning or coming out of the bias environment is always possible, but not already trending suggests that the first trending attempt will fail.

Overnight fight to recover held key resistance.

So, did the overnight rally create room to absorb post-open selling?

Rallying above 2770.00 overnight had consolidated in a narrow range around this morning’s 2781.50 bias-up signal. For 5 hours. The open blipped-up 1 point above the 2781.50 and resolved down quickly to attack and test 2772.00. A blip-up to 2778.00 resolved down quickly again to attack the 2766.00 bias-down signal.

Triggering no-bias put into play an offsetting test of the bias-down signal. That’s now neutralized. The bias-down signal can be probed, but should otherwise define the ewindow’s lower-end. And having neutralized the bias-down signal’s test, the no-bias environment has room back up to its bias-up signal.

Back under 2768.75 would signal the low’s retest. Meanwhile, back above 2772.00 (being tested now) would at least start signaling momentum reversing up, and the potential for resuming the overnight rally.

Pre-open surge’s post-open extension fails.

Like yesterday, the session began optimistically, and rewarded buyers for taking early action. The overnight rally had been hovering above yesterday afternoon’s 2793.50 highs, while stopping pessimistically short of yesterday’s late 2797.00 high. The pre-open CPI report triggered a knee-jerk reaction up to 2804.00-2805.00. It was retraced entirely.

Recovering into and out of the open probed fresh highs at 2807.00. Although the 2794.75 bias-up signal triggered easily, the 2802.50 bias-up target exceeded long enough to renew the bias-up signal. Now the 2794.75 bias-up signal is being tested and retested as support.

Being a bias-up environment, 2794.75 should define the window’s lower-end. Back above 2797.00 and 2799.00 would signal the dip was done and momentum is reversing back up. Otherwise, like yesterday, another bias-up decline may be underway.