Post-open Review

Recovery to overnight highs is reversed entirely.

Reacting down from the 2616.50 overnight high had touched 2580.50. The 36-point drop was retraced enough to greet the open at this morning’s 2609.00 bias-up signal. Several brief attempts to extend higher post-open had eventually probed the overnight high by 2 points. But no reinforcements arrived.

No-bias triggered, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2571.75 bias-down signal. Soon after the first hour had ended, a drop began that soon probed the objective down to 2566.00.

The 2571.75 bias-down signal should define the window’s lower-end before the no-bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30. Breaking under it within 10-15 minutes of then would be credible for extending. Otherwise, probing it earlier would be “no-bias trending” and require at least to retest the bias-down signal as resistance before extending down.

I wrote that last paragraph as the objective was being approached. It was overlapped deeply enough to identify a buy signal at 2575.00 with a minimum 7-point target above. Its quick reaction became almost a 30-point bounce attacking 2595.00.

Being a Friday, the morning’s bias signal should persist through the noon hour. This bounce isn’t very credible. Back under 2582.25 would start to signal that another correction has ended, and resume the decline. The pattern remains intact unless this morning’s bias-up signal were recovered.

Incredibly choppy open finally resolves.

The overnight recovery from its early 2645.50 low made it back up to 2686.50 before the open. That was already slipping to greet the open at 2681.00. Collapsing through the open extended down to 2663.00. Then things got volatile.

How does a 30-minute, 23-point drop THEN get volatile? By bouncing back-and-forth within a narrowing 14-point range. By invoking the grace period at its 2674.00 bias-down signal. By confirming a late bias-down at fresh lows by 10:30.

Incredibly choppy. But ultimately down. And as tends to be the case with this pattern of polarized strong opinion fighting aggressively in either direction, no time has been wasted in extending to the objective. Late bias-down triggered at 10:30, its fresh low at the same time offered confirmation, and its 2651.00 bias-down target is met less than 25 minutes later.

The objective was probed to also test the overnight low, which itself is a test of 2645.50. Its test is producing a bounce of almost 14 points, violating the current bounce limit. Oversold RSIs at the low require its eventual retest. Resuming the decline would next target 2633.00, and potentially lead to 2509-2511.

Surging straight up out of the open.

Narrow ranging persisted into the open. So, a post-open rally would likely be obvious with little delay if any. Several bars overlapping 2681.00-2687.00 soon resolved up to attack the 2707.00 bias-up signal to within 2-3 ticks.

A 61.8% retracement down to 2691.00 resolved up, too. Gradually at first, then surging again to touch 2716.25. Bias-up triggered at 10:15.

A dip overlapped the 2707.00 bias-up signal as support at 10:30, which doesn’t qualify for rejecting the decisively triggered signal. Its 2722.00 bias-up target is in-play.

Meanwhile, the dip has yet to recover, which would be signaled above 2709.00. Back under 2701.75 would start to signal a deeper pullback underway to 2690.00 or 2684.00. Any deeper would suggest a deeper drop underway, leaving unfinished business above.

Post-open rally fizzles.

The overnight recovery up to 2643.00 had reacted back down to 2573.00 (note: I’m omitting decimals unless relevant). The 2602.00 opening print was 38.2% of the way back up. That pessimism was devoured by the post-open surge, which rallied 101 points in a half-hour to 2680.00.

From a much lower starting point, both the 2621.00 and 2638.00 bias-down parameters were recovered and the 2661.00 and 2676.25 bias-up parameters were probed. Dipping into the 10:15 bias timing window was overlapping the bias-up signal to invoke the grace period, which lapsed while testing the bias-down signal.

So… late no-bias, both bias targets met? Sure, we can go with that. I don’t know what that means, and I invented the system. We’ve never seen that status before.

Fortunately, another proprietary setup is in-play to offer clarity. It’s the 5-stage correction/reversal that is labeled in the nearby chart. Its minimum objective has been fulfilled by retracing the Stage-2 Running Correction’s lower quadrant. Its support has been chipped away, and the next lower objective is Stage-1’s 2580-2590 origin. Regardless, entering the noon hour beyond either end of Stage-2’s 2633-2651 range would be likely to extend in that direction.

Finally, there’s the timing potential for today to be a multi-session low. (Remember those?) It’s preferable for the cash session to contain the low, instead of the overnight where it is now. But the template could still apply for having probed negative territory this morning anyway. Either way, the setup should rally sharply this afternoon if valid. But no lower low intraday and no afternoon rally could keep the decline alive for tomorrow, too.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: I AM AWAY FROM THE SCREENS BETWEEN 11:30-1:30 ET TODAY.

A substantial bottom can be formed by only attacking prior lows, and not actually recovering from a probe lower. Substantial, not durable. The 2736.00 pre-open low stopped 3 points short of the initial overnight low. Bouncing to 2750.00 was retraced to a fresh low at 2736.00, but the earlier overnight low was untouched.

That proved to be enough to launch what has become a substantial bounce. Its first reaction up attacked this mornings 2747.25 bias-down target. Retracing it to 2738.00 held through the opening 15 minutes of volatility and was recovered entirely.

Then more. Much more.

The reward for preventing the bias-down from renewing (i.e. breaking under the bias-down target through 10:15) was at last to retest 2750.00, if not also the 2753.25 bias-down signal. The latter was touched in time invoke the grace period, and now it is recovered in time to trigger late no–bias.

No-bias, after holding tests of BOTH bias-down parameters puts into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters. Triggering late is less reliable, but the 2766.25 bias-up signal’s test is still likely. Already 2763.00 has been touched, and overbought RSIs there require a retest.

Back under 2753.25 would signal momentum reversing down, confirming this bounce has been only a correction and that 2722.00 is still on the path down before a durable path up.