Post-open Review

Post-open narrow, narrow ranging.

The overnight rally ultimately extended to 2690.75. Reacting down into and out of the open touched 2686.50. But the first half-hour only ranged narrowly around 2688.00.

The 2688.75 bias-up signal was triggered late, and by a fresh post-open high. Overnight highs are being attacked up to 2690.00. So, bias-up is credible, despite triggering late, and despite being the first breakout from a narrowing range which is often a false break.

Credible, but not clean.

This being a late bias-up, and this being a breakout from a narrowing range, sellers are not marginalized. A clean bias-up would have marginalized sellers, and recovering the upper-end of the 2688.00-2692.50 resistance range would have been a formality.

Probing the overnight high would help to confirm the bias-up. Meanwhile, it is vulnerable to reacting down, even while leaving outstanding the bias-up attraction. Back under 2687.00 would start to signal the attractions below are in-play.

Overnight chop, meet post-open chop.

Last night’s range was contained within Friday afternoon’s range. But it flipped directions at least twice, steeply, to suggest this market wants to trend. That doesn’t then require trending, only trending attempts. Which the first hour has attempted, while either bias signal has remained comfortably untouched.

The pre-open dip back down to the earlier 2683.75 overnight low bounced through the open to attack Friday’s 2688.75 cash session close. Its reaction down to 2685.00 has been recovered entirely.

Probing higher has potential to test this morning’s 2691.00 bias-up signal. Perhaps not touched, possibly probed, but likely held during the bias environment. Any higher any later would be bullish, which would be suspicious for not yet having behaved bullishly.

Back under 2685.50 would have much more room to the bias-down signal. And much more potential to break lower into the afternoon as the first hour’s buying pressure is converted into selling pressure rushing for the exits.

Late no-bias is suspicious.

The shallow overnight bounce up to 2691.50 was already retraced back down to 2688.00 before the open. Post-open action quickly slid to 2684.75. So, back to Tuesday’s lows, right? Not so fast, there. The slide was retraced up to 2689.00, and then returned back down to 2684.75. So, NOW back to Tuesday’s lows?

Not quite. The 2685.50 bias-down signal was touched within 3 minutes of the 10:15 bias timing window to invoke the grace period. And it held up through 10:30 to trigger “late no-bias.” So, back up to the 2692.75 bias-up signal? That’s what the bias now indicates, an offsetting test of the bias-up signal.

But still hovering at or around the bias-down signal is suspicious. It’s too late to trigger bias-down, or to invoke the grace period. Invalidating it requires exiting the bias environment under its 2680.50 bias-down target. A sell signal is in-play under 2686.50 that would be confirmed by fresh lows.

I’ll lower the buy signal to 2688.75 on fresh lows, and meanwhile give sellers a benefit of the doubt. Regardless, durable trending is unlikely today, so even if 2680.50 were tested, it is support.

One bullish setup busts, another still tries.

Pre-open action had extended the overnight rally to attack 2690.00. The open’s surge probed it by 3 ticks and then reversed down sharply 5 points. The opening 15 minutes of volatility went out attacking yesterday afternoon’s 2688.25 high.

The session-long rally setup did not complete. It wasn’t decisively rejected, but pretty close. So there is potential for as bearish a consequence as it could have been bullish. Back under 2685.50 would start to signal a retest and probe of yesterday’s lows underway.

Meanwhile, the 2687.25 bias-up signal was still being overlapped within 3 minutes of the 10:15 bias timing window, invoking the grace period. Triggering it late at 10:30, or overlapping it then to trigger noN-bias, could still probe higher. Back above 2688.75 would start to signal a bigger bounce underway.

Regardless, trending doesn’t seem of interest. At least, not this morning. I would view skeptically any updraft or downdraft upon it meeting resistance or support.

Overnight rally and pre-open surge fall flat.

The pre-open Market Tour described the potential downside of not completing the “session-long rally” setup. Just probing yesterday afternoon’s 2690.25 high had made it possible. Not maintaining its recovery through the open would be as bearish as the completed setup would have been bullish.

My pre-open comments reiterated the warning, despite the overnight rally having extended up to this morning’s 2694.50 bias-up target. Adding another point at the open didn’t help, it only stretched the rubber band, which then began snapping back down. Soon the 2689.50 bias-up signal was broken down to 2684.25.

No-bias triggered. After testing the bias-up signal, an offsetting test of the 2681.50 bias-down signal was put into play. Also having tested the bias-up target, an offsetting test of the 2675.50 bias-down target is in-play, too.

Already, the drop has extended down to 2679.00. Both 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs are making higher lows, but still simultaneously oversold to require an eventual retest. Until then, at the earliest, no buy signal can be considered before the bias environment is at least within view of lapsing in a half-hour.