Post-open Review

Gap up doesn’t impeded bearish WedEX.

Testing, retesting and re-retesting 2577.00 before the open pretended to be “ineffectual pessimism” that would all but ensure probing higher, even if only temporarily. This contrarianism behavior, and stopping 1 tick short of touching the overnight “new Globex trend extreme,” didn’t prevent the open from trending down.

A fresh high would have been preferable for short-entry. But trending down through the open held a test of the 2575.75 bias-up signal through 10:15. An offsetting test of the 2567.25 bias-down signal is in-play. So far, 2572.00 has been touched.

2572.00 was touched at the overnight lows — two distinct lows, including the open’s blip-down. Its break through the open would have invited velocity into the decline. Its support might otherwise be challenging to break, but this morning’s bias environment is still expected to trend down.

Bias-up target met, held.

Last night’s surge to 2571.75 had retraced down to 2463.75. That was recovered pre-open up to 2570.00, and the opening print was this morning’s 2569.00 bias-up target.

Dipping straight down from there to 2566.00 has recovered entirely. Entirely, back up to the open. The pre-open and overnight highs remain untested.

Having outlasted the 10:15 bias timing window, the pattern has no bullish excuse not to extend the post-open bounce to retest the overnight high. And the overnight high’s retest is likely also to visit 2573.50. No bullish excuse not to extend higher this morning, and pretty much from here (a pullback testing 2567.50) and now (the first hour has ended).

Rdown further to probe under 2566.50 would suggest otherwise. The overnight high’s retest would start losing its attraction for today. And the afternoon’s bearish WedEX influence would start to take control.

Pre-open bounce reacts down, too.

Firming back up to the 2550.75 bias-down target and greeting the open there told us before the open that a bounce to 2553.75 would be a compelling short-entry.In fact, the first 3 minutes spiked up to 2554.75 and the next 3 minutes spiked back down. The first 45 minutes trended back down to attack 2445.00.

Bow a bounce is testing this morning’s 2550.75 bias-down target as resistance. Back under 2548.00 would signal the bounce had failed. Otherwise, even a bearish scenario could bounce higher this morning.

A bounce had better do more than that, and for longer, to avoid a more sizable downleg.

Why? Because just as expiration can influence price action, price action can influence expiration. The latter happens less frequently, but it may be happening today. Commitments reflected at the time of Wednesday’s close  — which is the essence of the WedEX setup — can require reshuffling due to Thursday’s sudden plunge. And that can exacerbate the plunge.

Unless the open were to absorb the plunge.

Not absorbing the open’s plunge would next target 2543.00 and 2535.00-2536.00. Exiting the bias environment under its 2550.75 bias-down target would help to keep alive downside potential. But entering the noon hour back above the 2556.00 bias-down signal would suggest the plunge was absorbed.

Overnight rally attracts no reinforcements.

The overnight rally from 2557.75 finally extended up to 2562.25 before the open. The late lift-off and the pre-open channle incurred a warning that post-open action could reverse sentiment.

In fact, the open was greeted 3 ticks under the pre-open high, and the opening 15 minutes fell back to 2559.50. Extending higher through the open’s window would have formed an anchor to at least ensure recovery. Not here. Instead, the reaction down extended lower to test this morning’s 2557.75 bias-up signal by 2 ticks. It held in time to trigger late bias-up.

The 2563.75 bias-up target is in-play. Back above 2559.75 would start to signal momentum reversing up. Meanwhile, the 2557.75 bias-up signal shoul’s test should define the morning window’s lower-end. Breaking under it after 11:30 would be credible for extending down.

Post-open narrowness much like the overnight narrowness.

The 3-point 2554.25-2557.00 overnight range inserted a pre-open blip-down to 2553.75. But the open was greeted essentially unchanged from yesterday’s 2555.00 cash session close. The first hour’s price action has been essentially a 2-point range down to 2554.00.

Neither bias signal was touched. If touched, either bias signal should define the window’s extreme. Choppiness aside, the narrow ranging doesn’t reflect any sponsorship, so there’s no objectives.

Breaking under 2554.00 would have room to test this morning’s 2551.50 bias-down signal as support. Above 2556.00 could test 2558.50. Neither is very attractive, let alone required. So, not the most attractive morning for trading.