Post-open Review

Opening surge holds up gains.

The overnight ranging narrowed a bit into the open, albeit still entirely within Friday afternoon’s range. The opening print was at the 2830.25 bias-up signal, which surged 3 points almost immediately, and then higher through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Much more so through the first half-hour to 2840.50.

None of which behaved in-line with the bearish WedEX, which would allow only the first half of the opening 15 minutes to rally. WedEX is not influential.

A 5-1/2 point pullback was recovered to fluctuate around the high. Extending above 2841.00 would signal that reinforcements had arrived, likely to trend up through the noon hour. Back under 2837.25 would start to signal a Double Top was being reversed down to 2834.00 or 2830.75.

Retest of prior high finds sellers again.

The overnight rally up to 2822.00 was recovering a corrective dip during the Market Tour recording. The recovery extended to retest yesterday’s 2825.00 pre-open high up to 2826.00. Hovering there briefly like yesterday’s test soon resolved down sharply, like yesterday’s test.

Unlike yesterday, the pre-open collapse to 2815.50 was recovered to greet the open back at or above the 2818.75 bias-up signal. Which extended back up to 2825.00, within 1 tick of this morning’s bias-up target.

Reacting back down again probed under the 2818.75 bias-up signal, in time to invoke grace period. It triggered late. This is a bias-up environment, targeting 2825.25.

Back under 2818.00 again would be likely at least to fill the gap back down to yesterday’s 2814.00 cash session close equivalent. Meanwhile, resuming the rally to test the bias-up target would be likely also to extend up to the 2831.00 area. But the upside probably depends upon rallying this morning, and not delaying a recovery much longer.

Wide pre-open swings land at the range’s lower-end.

The overnight rally up to 2825.00 was blind-sided by China trade news. It triggered a collapse to fresh session lows attacking 2811.00, which was recovered up to 2822.00 before the open. Trending back down greeted the open at 2815.00, on the way to fresh lows at 2808.50 and to cleanly triggering the 2813.00 bias-down signal.

This is a bias-down environment, targeting 2806.25. I would expect extending to visit 2801.00 “lower prior highs,” too.

Meanwhile, price action is ranging around 2813.00. A surge to 2816.50 has reacted down to touch a 2811.50 sell signal, not yet triggering it. Having avoided a fresh low since 10:15, invalidating the bias-down now requires exiting the bias environment above its 2822.75 bias-up signal. Otherwise, the bias-down target will become “unfinished business,” regardless of the potential for a bigger detour up.

Recovery extends to quickly fulfill upside.

Last night’s dip had recovered from its attack on 2788.00 up to yesterday’s last relative high above 2800.00. This, alone, was more than enough to suggest potential up to 2811.25-2812.00 would be met. Greeting the open at 2807.50 only made that likelier.

But nothing would make extending any higher any likelier. Nothing, except for extending higher relentlessly. Which the open did not do.

The opening 15 minutes of volatility eked higher, but each leg overlapped the opening print. Finally breaking higher surged until fulfilling 2811.25-2812.00. Not for long enough to be considered relentless, but the bias-up target was exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal.

Breaking higher has attacked 2815.00, short so far of the 2818.00 renewed bias-up target. RSIs are diverging negatively, and the 2813.00 pullback limit is being violated. Back under 2811.00 would start to signal momentum already reversing down.

Reversal setup avoided, producing fresh highs.

The pre-open dip back under the 2789.25 earlier Globex low had reached 2785.50. Having probed yesterday’s high overnight, maintaining the reversal through the open would have formed a bearish Globex-flip. Two hours still remained before the open, so the question I posed during Market Tour was whether the dip would be maintained.

It was not.

Its reaction up greeted the open at or above the 2791.50 bias-up signal. Price gradually improved — gradually, choppily, but not steadily in contrast with yesterday’s opening surge. The 2797.00 bias-up target was met and held without renewing bias-up, but its 2803.00 renewed bias-up target was met (to within 3 ticks) anyway.

All of which may have been the product of opening sponsorship, fulfilling the traction earned by yesterday afternoon’s buyers. Since violating a pullback limit at 2800.50, the high was retested to within 1 tick of 2803.00. But there was no interim accumulation, and no complexity had formed. The recovery attempt was premature.

In fact, the recovery attempt has retraced entirely to touch a sell signal at 2796.75. Yesterday afternoon buyers have been rewarded. And soon the bias-up window will begin lapsing. Triggering a sell signal would be credible for reversing the trend back down to at least correct a portion of yesterday’s rally. But back above 2801.00 would no longer be premature to resume the rally.