Pre-close View

Too late for more than an obligatory bounce.

The bias environment’s 2072.50 lows reacted up to 2079.00 before retracing entirely. And only entirely. Not pierced or probed by a fresh low, and not just attacked. Touched.

The next reaction up has recovered gradually to test 2078.00. That’s pretty good, for a bounce that wasn’t required, and which is likely to fail.

2078.00 could be probed aggressively (being tested now), without reversing back down before the close. It would likely not be durable, but it could be very productive meanwhile. Otherwise, back under 2075.00 would target 2071.00, if not also lower.

MARKET WRAP WILL BEGIN EARLY AT 3:50 ET, AND EXPANDED TO INCLUDE BIGGER PICTURE.

This morning’s 2100.75 high reacted down aggressively, soon after persistently overbought 3-minute RSI had finally left overbought territory.

Reacting down through both the noon hour and the afternoon bias environment is testing 2091.00. And meanwhile 3-minute RSI has repeatedly attacked oversold territory without probing it.

The near-term potential below is at 2088.00, if not also 2086.00. If the slide were to become frenzied, then it could extend next down to 2076.00 or even to 2071.00.

The bias environment was exited at the noon hour’s 2093.00 low but not still under it. The final hour’s entry is threatening the bias environment’s 2091.75 low. Still not probing fresh afternoon lows through the 3:10-3:20 timing window could avoid any further dip today.

Framing this week with aggressive slides both into and out of it would be more poetic than predictive. Regardless, don’t underestimate the velocity of a late leg in either direction.

REMINDER: There is no Saturday Review tomorrow, so today’s Market Wrap will be expanded to cover the bigger picture… and it will begin early at 3:50 ET before the close.

Fresh highs withstanding rejection.

The afternoon’s 2083.00 bias-up target wasn’t exceeded through 1:20, so no higher target was put into play. But it was still a bias-up environment, and fresh highs were probed up to 2088.75.

The bias environment started lapsing at 2:30 back in the noon hour’s range. That could have become very bearish if the final hour were entered back under the bias environment’s 2081.25 low.

But lower lows were avoided, and the final hour was entered back at the bias environment’s high.

That hasn’t yet extended higher, or reversed down. But not exploiting that window’s reversal opportunity should be rewarded by higher highs. Breaking lower anyway would be likely to recover.

Relentless rally day attacking “higher prior lows.”

Today’s session is behaving like a “session long rally.” Which is interesting, because there was no setup for it. But every timing window has probed the prior timing window’s high.

There just hasn’t been an exception. Even if price were to reverse down aggressively and plunge, this last timing window of the day has already probed fresh highs. Even the noon hour probed fresh highs, and that’s usually the exception.

No exceptions today, as the rally is relentless.

One sell signal was pierced during at the noon hour’s exit, and it was minimally productive. Otherwise, massive uplegs have defined the session.

Already coming to within 3 ticks of the highest objective at 2065.00 has created potential for reversing down to the 2057.00 area. The rally has gained traction, so a dip would likely settle in the noon hour’s range.

Sideways ranging breaks higher.

The noon hour had ranged within the bias environment’s 2018.00-2006.00 pullback. The bias environment dipped a little deeper within the range. Then the bias environment started lapsing.

Surging from 2011.00 has probed fresh highs up to 2024.50. Overbought 3-minute and 1-minute RSIs make any reaction down likely to recover for at least a retest of the high.

Now the question is whether the rally can gain traction for its effort. Entering the final hour above the bias environment’s high still needs confirmation, but trending up through the 3:10-3:20 window. Probing fresh highs later, or not holding fresh highs through 3:20, could trend back down into the close.