Pre-close View
Pre-close View… 50 shades of bearish.
Bounce meets target. Will it also meet a bearish WedEX?
The bearish WedEX signal applies no earlier than Friday afternoon. And then it applies. This afternoon has only trended up, so far.
A pullback down to 2056.00 recovered the 2060.25 bias-up signal to trigger a late bias-up. Its 2066.00 bias-up target was met at the high, as the bias environment was lapsing.
And no higher. Price action since then has fallen 5 points to 2061.25.
Ending the day under the afternoon’s 2056.00 low would help to confirm the bearish WedEX is influential. That will have a lot of relevance Monday morning. For the balance of today, the most relevant result will be trending down, or not.
Pre-close View… Capitulation, shmapitulation.
Probing higher and higher highs.
Renewing the bias-up signal above its 2058.00 target didn’t prevent initially dipping. But it wasn’t likely to extend, and in fact held an attack on 2055.00. The bias environment ultimately probed higher to attack 2066.00.
The actual bias environment exit was overlapping the noon hour’s 2062.75 highs despite having probed 3 points highs. The final hour’s entry was back under the bias environment’s 2065.75 high despite probing more than 1 point higher. And now the 3:10-3:20 window has avoided extending to fresh highs.
Buyers aren’t gaining traction for today’s effort, they’re simply being fulfilled. None of which is a sell signal. Tomorrow’s open could still extend the rally by gapping up. Otherwise, a retest of 2043.00 remains likely.
Pre-close View… So, what’s new?
Unsurprising FOMC statement enables range to persist.
Today’s likeliest scenario has been tracked. So far.
Optimistic firming or rallying preceded the FOMC news. Volatility evaporated ahead of it. The news triggered an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up. Fully discounting the news reacted back down to a fresh relative low.
Still awaiting the template’s next stage — trending back down well into yesterday’s range. Potentially through it.
This last stage has been delayed for awhile. Back under 2070.50 would target at least 2063.50. But back above 2073.75-2075.25 would target a fresh session high attacking 2080.75.
Pre-close View… Getting late for a bottom.
Chipping away at the afternoon bias environment’s support.
The noon hour touched this afternoon’s 2076.25 bias-down signal but held it easily through 1:20 to trigger no-bias. Bouncing to attack 2083.00 resolved down to fresh lows at 2075.00. Ranging back up to 2080.00 has resolved down to 2073.00.
And now the final hour is being entered. Fresh lows are printing. There’s one more opportunity to trap shorts by isolating the afternoon’s chipping away at support.
Entering the position-squaring window around 3:37pm above 2077.50 or 2078.50 would be vulnerable to a squeeze. Otherwise, the decline from last week’s highs can carry through tomorrow morning.
Pre-close View… Kicked when it’s down.
Afternoon slide worsens the overnight drop.
Having anticipated the downside to unfold quickly if it unfolded at all, lower and lower lows through the afternoon help to confirm the trend is now down. Downlegs have been capitulative, but a late surge could still retrace enough ground to limit the afternoon’s damage.
Now probing 2083.50 resistance just before the position-squaring window opens, extending higher without delay is necessary to avoid new session lows. And new session lows signaled under 2081.75 would be likely to slide through the close.
Regardless, today’;s low can’t serve as a durable bottom, so be aware that any bounce is a temporary correction.