Pre-close View

Range breaking lower into bias environment exit.

Wednesday afternoon’s bias environment began lapsing as price was dipping from its 2036.00 upper-end down to 2032.00. Selling soon accelerated down to 2026.50.

Being Wednesday afternoon ahead of a 3-day holiday weekend, like the expiration indicator, downtrending into the weekend is now likely. That is, assuming the break is maintained through the close, and also assuming Thursday’s open doesn’t recover immediately and reject Wednesday afternoon’s break.

The bias environment exit was still within the noon hour’s range. The final hour’s entry being under the bias environment’s low, trending down to fresh lows through the 3:10-3:20 timing window would confirm sellers gained traction.

Retest of overnight high could cut either way — sharply.

This afternoon’s 2041.50 bias-up signal was not touched in time to trigger, or even to invoke the grace period. But the resulting no-bias environment was invalidated by surging through 2041.50 through the bottom off the hour.

The bias environment extended only to 2043.00 and the bias environment exit has pierced the 2044.25 overnight high by 1 tick. Approaching 2044.25 pessimistically is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.

Entering the final hour back under 2041.50 would suggest otherwise. Unfinished business below at 2030.75 remains outstanding from this morning’s offsetting test of the bias-up signal. It could attract price back down today. Or, the lower attraction could lie patiently in wait to spoil a rally effort.

Noon hour’s pullback absorbed, but not reversed.

The morning’s 2039.75 bias-up target wasn’t exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal. It was probed anyway up to 2042.75. But the bias environment was exited back at 2039.75. And the noon hour fluctuated around it. Buyers weren’t gaining any traction for their effort.

Some sort of dip remained likely before the bullish WedEX could be influential. Dropping out of the noon hour from 2040.00 tested the afternoon’s 2033.50 bias-down signal by 2 ticks.

Now the bias environment is beginning to lapse. Already a bounce is testing 2038.00. Not exiting the bias environment above prior highs does impede the ability to extend higher through the close. But nothing inherent to the WedEX suggests it will be invalidated and it’s too late to invert.

No-bias rally is borrowing a lot from tomorrow.

Trading 2027.00 at 1:20 failed to trigger the 2028.50 bias-up signal, despite the noon hour having probed it up to 2031.00. Never mind that, fresh highs attacked 2037.00.

That’s “no-bias trending” and it requires being retraced to 2028.50 if not also to 2027.00 or lower. But not in any particular time frame. Overbought RSIs at the high require its retest, potentially up to 2038.00.

Buyers didn’t gain traction yesterday, so resuming the rally today was unlikely before the final hour. It will be interesting if that remains influential, because it would also prevent a higher close from confirming yesterday’s breakout.

It does look like the high’s retest is underway. Neutralizing its attraction quickly would allow the 3:37-3:52 position-squaring window to satisfy the downside attraction, and to prevent confirming the breakout.

FOMC reaction has legs.

The noon hour’s pullback had tested and held its 2001.50 target, which also happened to be this afternoon’s bias-down signal. It didn’t trigger, and the FOMC policy statement triggered a surge attacking 2017.00. A couple of higher highs later and 2022.25 is being attacked, too.

Any higher would target 2028.50. But it’s getting late, and buyers aren’t gaining traction for this effort — a lot of effort. The bias environment’s exit above the noon hour’s high wasn’t confirmed either by the final hour’s entry or the 3:10-3:20 timing window. And having been a noN-bias environment, the rally doesn’t require being retraced.

Still, fresh highs above 2022.25 would target 2028.50. Just avoid closing back under 2012.00 to form an “actively bullish WedEX” setup. Closing back under 2009.00 would form a “passively bearish WedEX.”