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Afternoon plunge trying to bottom at the right place and time.

This morning’s 2082.50 unfinished business below was probed down to 2078.25. Its reaction has climbed steadily up to 2083.50.

A little too steadily.

Not already inflecting up suggests a corrective dip likely to test 2080.50-2081.25. And then back above 2082.50 could extend back up to this afternoon’s 2088.00 bias-down signal, whose retest is required.

Not holding 2080.50 could simply trend down into the close. And out of it, too. Remember that if the market intends a corrective drop before Thanksgiving, then it should be developed largely by tomorrow afternoon.

Barely bearish, late, passive WedEX is only flickering.

Big things often come in little packages. The disproportionality of this is extreme.

Wednesday’s close was overlapping 2082.50 prior highs, leaving it to Thursday’s open for completion of the setep. Without rallying, the signal wasn’t bullish. Dipping immediately would have been bearish. Thursday’s open ranged narrowly sideways.

Bearish by default.

Its influence might not be responsible for this afternoon having probed fresh intraday lows. It’s probably not responsible for the downtrend underway since this morning’s bias signal triggered. And its influence isn’t undoubtedly responsible from above the 2082.50 prior highs — which is still 2-3 points lower.

But now the bias environment has begun lapsing. Volatility should start expanding. Trending down under 2082.50 would be credible for extending down through the close. Entering the final hour above 2089.25 would start to suggest the session will instead rally through the close.

Choppy sideways ranging still has room below.

A test of this morning’s 2072.00 bias-down signal was put into play and not invalidated. It hasn’t been met, but it was almost detoured when this afternoon’s 2082.75 bias-up triggered.

Price action until then wasn’t accumulative, so I was very dismissive of the signal’s credibility. It triggered anyway, even if only momentarily before being invalidated by retracing back under 2082.75 through 1:30.

Trending down since then has tested 2077.00. Presumably, the final hour would tumble aggressively to fulfill the 2072.00 unfinished business below. Meanwhile, back above 2083.25 would trigger a rally back to overnight highs.

Eventual reaction surges to fresh highs.

I’ve been holding out for 2068.00 and it was finally met. It was probed up to 2073.25 in reaction to the FOMC Minutes. I’m monitoring the character of its test for signs of its rejection.

One of those characteristics is the simultaneous overbought 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs at the high. They require an eventual retest. Its likely objective is 2074.50 (+/- 1 tick).

Another characteristic is exiting the bias environment above all prior intraday timing windows’ highs. That’s difficult to reverse down before the close. So, not entering the final hour back under the earlier 2065.00 highs should extend higher.

Dipping under 2065.00 could insert a detour that delays retesting today’s high. But a detour would be more credible if already underway entering the final hou.

Reaction down on news has left upside potential outstanding.

There’s no requirement to trend any higher during this stage of the recovery. There remains potential to new highs for having recovered 2088.00 previously, and for breakout that was meanwhile confirmed. But those objectives have no particular timing.

And the traction gained by yesterday’s rally was fulfilled by trending up this morning. Last night’s 2059.25 high could have sufficed, but it was probed up to 2063.50.

However, there was potential for the current rally to test 2068.00 before becoming vulnerable to another temporary corrective dip. Its test isn’t required, only likely in an uptrend, and easily replaced by a downtrend.

Speaking of which, discovery of a terrorist plot in Germany has triggered a deeper pullback under this afternoon’s 2050.50 bias-down target to 2041.50. Price reactions to terrorism tend to recover and reverse, but there’s no required timing or interim extreme.