Pre-close View

This afternoon’s no-bias was signaled cleanly, not even touching the 1944.75 bias-up signal, let alone overlapping it in time to invoke the grace period. Exceeding it through 1:30 nevertheless invalidated whatever had been signaled at 1:20. And that extended 11 points to 1955.50. In 10 minutes.

Must have been some pretty serious buying, right? Actually, it has been retraced entirely, back into the noon hour’s range at 1939.00.

Extending higher through the bias environment’s exit would have been more than just a corrective bounce. A retest of yesterday’s 1992.00 pre-open high would have been in-play. Not extending higher has taken that off the table.

But the alternative is still unknown. Is yesterday’s decline resuming? Possibly. Or, is a temporary dip underway, with another bounce attempt coming? Also possible, albeit less so.

I don’t think today’s pattern will leave us any further instructions going forward — no hold-long or hold-short, only parameters.

Unfinished business below is neutralized.

Yesterday afternoon’s 1952.25 bias-up signal didn’t trigger. That didn’t prevent extending higher to and through its 1957.75 bias-up target before the bias environment had lapsed.

That didn’t invalidate the “no-bias trending” that required being retraced. But it reflected an underlying counter-trend sponsorship to be feared and respected. In fact, Tuesday’s rally extended another 11 points into the close, and then another 23 points overnight. That didn’t invalidate the no-bias trending’s required retracement, either.

There’s no timing element to that retracement. But it has now been retraced entirely, down to 1949.75. Nothing lower is required, although there’s potential to yesterday’s 1948.50 print at 1:20.

Meanwhile, the final hour was just entered back above the bias environment’s lows. It was positioned to be more decisive than it accomplished, but trending back above a relevant higher through 3:10-3:20 should be feared and respected. Otherwise, it might be impressive enough just to retest 1967.25.

Premature rally crosses the finish line, anyway.

The noon hour’s attack on 1956.50 resistance reacted down too deeply to trigger the 1952.25 bias-up signal at 1:20. Then it extended more deeply to 1947.50, but it was never expected to reverse the trend down. In fact, the no-bias environment recovered back up to the 1952.25 bias-up signal. And then back up to 1956.50.

That’s no-bias trending. Trending beyond a bias signal, which didn’t trigger in time. The bias signal always requires being retested — often, so does the 1:20 print. That’s 1952.25 and 1948.50.

But the recovery extended. A sell signal at 1954.50 was only touched and not triggered. A buy signal that had triggered at 1950.75 remained intact. And it remained intact as the bias environment began lapsing from above the 1957.75 bias-up target. That test has extended up to 1964.00.

So long as 1961.75 and 1960.50 now hold as support, the rally can resume as it seemed ready to this morning. Already testing 1963.25, next higher is 1967.25, and potential for compensating the detour down by extending even higher.

Is late-surge borrowing future buying pressure?

This afternoon”s late bias-down signal eventually triggered under 1914.00. Its 1908.25 bias-down target was met at the low as the bias environment began lapsing at 2:30.

Retesting 1908.25 after a brief bounce, with no unfinished business below, launched a reversal back up to the noon hour”s 1924.50 high. Now that”s being probed to within ticks of this morning”s 1930.00 highs.

Hold-short or hold-long ahead of a weekend is unusual, more so ahead of a three-day weekend. But Globex does open normally Sunday night. And a lot of future buying pressure is being borrowed very aggressively during the last 60-90 minutes. So a hold-short is certainly tempting.

Bit intraday round-trip now just waiting for more news.

Wednesday”s pre-open rally had been retraced essentially back to unchanged. So was this morning”s — at least, back to its overnight lows. But there”s no requirement to trend any further today.

Knowing tomorrow”s Employment Situation report is just ahead, this afternoon had formed a trading range. A pretty wide ranging 1945.00-1957.00 range, but a range nonetheless.

Now this late, that range is finally breaking lower to 1942.00. Sellers almost gained traction for their efforts, but there is no bottoming pattern.