Pre-market Tour

The ECB statement was greeted at 2239.00 (basis Dec, 2233.75 basis Mar). The immediate reaction to potential future tapering was a 6-point plunge. Its  less immediate reaction bounced back up to the plunge’s origin, and through it to pierce the overnight highs by 2 ticks. Price settled back ahead of Draghi’s prepared remarks which retested yesterday’s high, and the Q&A which has held up at the highs.

Regardless of not gaining traction, some intraday follow-through to yesterday’s rally is likely, whether today or tomorrow. Holding a test of either upside objective and reacting down to close back under 2220.00 (basis Dec, 2214.75 basis Mar) would negate the next higher objective. The trend would all but reverse down if either next higher objective (2244.75 or 2252.50 basis Dec, 2239.50 or 2247.25 basis Mar) had been tested already.

The front-month rolls forward at the open from Dec 16 to Mar 17. I’m continuing with Dec this morning as it’s the only contract to have traded in this area as a front-month. This handy-dandy reference table identifies recently relevant levels until this afternoon:

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

The overnight fresh high that touched the 2213.00 bias-up signal had quickly reacted back down. Hours of consolidation were supported above 2210.00, but that has broken lower to test 2207.00. Much lower through the open would signal the reaction down is attracting sponsorship. Meanwhile, this weakness is weak-handed sellers, similar to the past couple of sessions, and equally likely to resolve up.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

The return to yesterday’s 2206.00 post-close high finished consolidating, and then broke higher to 2209.00. Exiting the open above yesterday’s highs is the minimum requirement to help ensure rallying into the afternoon. The alternative is another post-open reaction down, somewhat similar to yesterday — except gapping up instead of surging, and then reacting down under prior lows instead of holding their test.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

The overnight surge up to 2205.75 has been corrected almost 8 points down to 2198.00. That barely threatened to touch Friday’s 2197.25 high. Isolating the probe under Friday’s low to the overnight is all the more likely. That does not prevent backing-and-filling into Friday’s range down to 2191.00-2193.00. But it would likely recover and extend above overnight highs so long as a post-open dip doesn’t interfere with triggering the 2195.00 bias-signal. Otherwise, there’s plenty of room below for deeper backing-and-filling.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

REMINDER: I’m unavailable during today’s last timing window (which begins at 2:30 ET). There is no post-market Wrap or Saturday Review.

The bounce off of overnight lows made it back up to 2191.00 ahead of this morning’s Employment Situation report. The knee-jerk reaction was relatively muted, spiking down to 2187.00 and back up to a fresh high at 2191.50. Gapping up enough to reverse the trend up isn’t likely. Isolating a retest of the overnight low is possible, but difficult. A morning rally should begin abruptly at the open, so any weaker strength — or weakness, itself — would be credible for extending down.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.