Pre-market Tour

The earlier 5-point bounce up to 2186.00 had been largely retraced already, and then entirely on the way to fresh lows at 2180.25. That’s within 1 tick of filling the gap back to last Friday’s cash session close. That would be “optimistically short” if done post-open, bearish from a contrarian perspective. Instead, a bigger bounce could retest yesterday’s highs up to 2189.50. Not holding the gap would target 2172.00, another outstanding gap — and gap fills do tend to come in pairs.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

The 2185.75 overnight high has been touched again. It doesn’t require intraday retest, but retesting it and reversing down could start sliding aggressively. Otherwise, the rally more likely goes back on autopilot.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

Two pre-open econ reports were greeted at yesterday’s 2182.25 cash session close. The reaction plunged to a fresh low at 2178.75. That’s not much, unless compared to the overnight range, and even to yesterday afternoon’s range. The gap back to yesterday’s close doesn’t require being filled before extending down, although that’s common first. Probing a new high without gapping up in this pattern would be likely to reverse back down sharply, but not necessarily on a Friday. No matter how likely to resolve down, nothing yet prevents extending higher — especially on a Friday.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

Recovering 7 points back up to the 2179.00 overnight high has since hovered patiently while awaiting the open. A valid breakout in this pattern should almost literally explode higher post-open, making early-entry a little more compelling. Maintaining a recovery above yesterday’s highs through this morning’s open would make this morning likely to probe fresh highs, such as unfinished business above at 2185.50. But NOT yet exploiting the opportunity to trend up would instead become likelier to repeat yesterday morning’s drop — perhaps less aggressively and more backing-and-filling, but a drop.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

The open is being greeted with restrained optimism. The 2181.50 high’s reaction down had been recovered almost entirely. Now its reaction down has been recovered almost entirely, too. The particular points of hesitation reflect a degree of pessimism that is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. So, trending up to test 2185.50 can start developing quickly post-open. So much so, that NOT trending up quickly post-open could become bullish quickly, too.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.