Pre-market Tour

Bouncing off of the 2151.25 overnight low was extended to 6 points before dipping again to 2154.00. But 2158.00 still seems to be the most reliable line in the sand for anticipating this morning’s price action — be it trending back up through yesterday’s highs, or else backing-and-filling to test the 2148.00 area.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

The 2158.00 bias-up signal has been probed twice overnight, once to within 2-3 ticks of the 2163.75 bias-up target. But the open is being greeted within 2-3 ticks of Friday’s 2154.25 cash session close. Flat.

Inverting the signal Monday isn’t possible after it has been influential Friday. But too much delay in trending up post-open would question whether the signal withstood Friday’s post-close anomaly.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

Fresh overnight highs are probing into positive territory above yesterday’s late recovery attempt, testing this morning’s 2161.50 bias-up signal as resistance. Meanwhile, maintaining a gap up to and/or through yesterday morning’s 2163.00 would be credible for resuming the rally this morning — and that’s not yet even indicated. So long as that’s the case, this morning’s likely scenario is to hold the bias-up signal’s test which would put into play an offsetting test of the 2152.00 bias-down signal.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

The reaction down from 2168.00 tested and retested 2156.00 while RSIs diverged positively. A similar setup accompanied its retracement up to 2165.00.

Preliminary indications during the opening 15 minutes of volatility are essentially the 2159.00-2164.00 range. Breaking either way through 9:45 would likely extend 5-6 points in that direction.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

Like a formulaic battle movie, the cavalry has arrived at the last minute. Earlier peaking pessimistically short of touching yesterday’s 2149.25 high, now a 6-point surge from 2146.00 is testing 2152.00. A gap up is indicated, which once again is the only credible path to producing a durable rally this morning.

Of course, late sponsorship is not the most credible. I’ll give it a benefit of the doubt since we’re at day-11 of an up/down-crash setup that is vulnerable to upside capitulation. But I’ll also be sensitive to signs of failure — for the very same reason.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.