Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s session was greeted by a choppy sideways overnight range. Post-open trending attempts poked at either end of the 2632.00-2645.00 range, but couldn’t get anywhere since starting from a standing stop. The open’s tests of 2632.00 support were isolated to help trigger bias-up, but the morning’s 2650.00 bias-up target became “unfinished business.” The noon hour’s test of 2632.00 wasn’t isolated, and the afternoon’s 2627.25 bias-down target was tested to 2626.00. A likely attraction to 2625.00 was not fulfilled, so neither was the ongoing potential for 2605.00. bias environment lapsed and the balance of the session eked higher to attack 2643.00 at the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
INTC’s earnings miss and lower guidance triggered a post-close spike down to 2633.50. It was eventually recovered and reversed to test 2645.00, and then higher to attack 2652.00. Sideways ranging since then expanded momentarily to touch 2645.00 below and 2653.00 above. Now a break higher to 2656.00 is reacting back down to 2650.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Having neutralized the attraction up to 2650.00, the bearish scenario could retake control at any time without leaving “unfinished business” to inhibit a decline. Not already reversing down through the open would suggest the corrective bounce will revisit 2656.00 for another chance to reverse down, or else to extend higher to 2666.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2651.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2650.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2647.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2643.75 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s 10-point gap up to 2646.00 extended higher through the open to test 2651.00 resistance up to 2654.00. And it was still within the gravitational pull of 2605.00, which had been put into play Tuesday afternoon. The balance of the morning resolved down into the noon hour, probing 4 points under Tuesday’s low to 2612.50. Still short of the 2605.00 objective, the afternoon’s bounce made it back up to 2639.50. Still far short of any trend reversal signal, the last half-hour ranged narrowly sideways to close at 2638.00-2639.00, almost flat with Tuesday’s close.

Overnight action’s new info…
Last night’s action resembles the previous night’s choppy sideways range. The Globex open initially dipped 6 points to 2631.00, and then reversed to probe the afternoon highs up to 2645.00. This has been repeated, with a shallow dip into Europe’s opens snapping back up to retest the earlier 2645.00 overnight highs. So far, the range’s upper-end hasn’t broken higher, leaving a sideways range.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Back under 2632.00 overnight could have started to resume Wednesday morning’s decline. It was overlapped 2-3 times, chipping away at its support, and its reactions haven’t become uplegs. Retesting 2632.00 post-open would get one chance to break lower. Otherwise, holding a test of support or simply rallying would have room up to 2656.00-2666.00 before suggesting the past two sessions have been only a temporary detour. The bullish scenario could still be revived by exploiting the past two sessions’ intraday tests of last Wednesday-Thursday’s 2625.00 “lower prior highs,” which there’s no bullish reason to revisit. Meanwhile, monitor the overnight range for a late breakout attempt within 1-2 hours of the open, which is usually retraced.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2647.00 would be likely to trigger the 2643.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2641.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The holiday-shortened week began with a paradigm shift. Tuesday’s 17-point gap down from Friday’s close eventually found reinforcements to extend the relentless overnight decline. But it was still past the opening 15 minutes of volatility before actually touching Friday’s 2649.00 low. Trending down into the final hour’s 2616.50 low encountered a counter-trend effort that was triggered by favorable China trade headlines. The last minute alone spiked up 10 points. Bouncing 22 points in total was still well short of 2656.00 — which combined with the open under 2656.00 to reject Friday’s close above 2656.00, and the rally’s next higher objective it had put into play.

Overnight action’s new info…
last night’s pattern just disqualified itself from being only a sideways range? The Globex open initially retraced half of Tuesday’s late bounce back down to 2627.50, which was reversed up to fresh recovery highs at 2642.00. Reacting down gradually through midnight accelerated into and out of Europe’s opens until touching the earlier 2627.50 low. Recovering back up to the 2642.00 interim high has just now started breaking higher, touching 2647.00 with enough distance and complexity to be credible for extending higher — and to be credible for reversing back down if the earlier range is revisited.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
An overnight sideways range that delays breaking out until 1-2 hours pre-open tends to be retraced back to the range, and then either resumes the breakout, or else reverses it. Last night’s range was broken before that window, so reversing back into the range would be more credible for extending down. Returning into the range is required. Tuesday’s rejection of Friday’s close above 2656.00 didn’t itself reverse the trend back down, so an attempt today to reinstate higher targets is possible. The bounce from yesterday’s low could test 2656.00-2666.00 before suggesting that Tuesday’s drop was only a detour. Meanwhile, we’re considering Tuesday’s sudden, steep and substantial reversal from the prior session’s fresh recovery to qualify as a two-session formation of the intraday reversal we already anticipated to be this stage’s topping pattern. Regardless, any setup still need the confirmation of a second consecutive lower close on Wednesday. Tuesday’s drop was next targeting 2605.00, and its attraction which could help to resume the decline. Another 25 points lower is the last relative low that launched the most recent upleg, and its break would signal a new downtrend underway.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2643.00 would be likely to trigger the 2638.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2635.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday gapped up to the rally’s next higher objective at 2656.00, and soon began a dip that attacked Thursday’s 2645.50 high. The bias timing window touched 2647.00 and resumed rallying through the noon hour to 2677.25. The afternoon bias environment’s dip to 2662.00 was retraced to 2670.50 through the cash session close, and to 2672.50 through the futures close, and then to 2677.75. The bullish WedEX was a wash by the cash session close, and marginally successful by the futures close.

Overnight action’s new info…
The market was under pressure from Sunday night’s open, which gapped down to 2669.00-2673.50, and continued falling through Monday morning to test 2656.00 — what was Friday’s opening print, and what had been the rally’s next higher objective and . Bouncing to 2666.00 through last night’s open was reversed down to 2649.50, which is now being retested after an interim bounce to 2658.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Closing above 2656.00 Friday put into play the rally’s next higher objective at 2701.00. Closing firmly above its room for noise at 2668.50 would have helped to confirm the new target, if not also resume the rally aggressively and without delay. However, still overlapping 2668.50 at Friday’s close left the door a little wider open to rejecting the new target, by both opening and closing back under 2656.00. That’s currently indicated, but with plenty of time to recover pre-open if the market intends. Meanwhile, irrelevant to the open gapping down, the WedEX’s influence may insert an aggressively bullish post-open detour through this morning’s bias environment. A session-long decline setup could form by gapping down under its 2662.00 afternoon low after having trended up into Friday’s close, but it’s not very reliable when developed over a weekend, let alone over a three-day weekend. And having trended down relentlessly since the last close, all while being contained within Friday’s range, it may be difficult for overnight sponsorship to find opening reinforcements that will take price lower.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2656.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2657.50 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2663.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2666.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s wild ride had begun Wednesday afternoon, when its test of the room for noise up to 2626.00 began reacting down. The close had slid through 2613.00-2616.00 on the way to an overnight test of ~2598.00 “lower prior highs.” Thursday’s 2606.00 open immediately resumed the overnight recovery, attacking 2626.00 upon exiting the noon hour. Despite triggering bias-up, the bias environment only ranged sideways until a China trade headline triggered a surge to 2645.50. The headline’s denial triggered a 20-point reaction down that still recovered to close at 2635.00-2636.00. The minimum requirement from Tuesday’s confirmed breakout for at least an eventual third higher close was fulfilled, while closing above 2626.00 put into play the rally’s next higher objective at 2656.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Firming a little further to 2640.00 through Thursday’s close reacted down to 2633.00 through the Globex open. The recovery soon resumed until attacking Thursday’s 2645.50 high to within 3 ticks. Ranging narrowly sideways through midnight greeted Europe’s opens back down at 2640.00. It wasn’t very defensive, but it was defensive enough, and the earlier overnight high was recovered. Another dip to the range’s lower-end was also recovered, and now breaking through yesterday’s highs up to 2649.25.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Overbought RSIs at yesterday’s high had required a retest which is now neutralized. The only higher objective in-play is 2656.00, which can be invalidated by opening back under 2626.00, but no such effort is apparent — closing under 2606.00 today would be the last opportunity to invalidate yesterday’s close above 2626.00. Meanwhile, this afternoon’s bullish WedEX influence could help to extend a morning rally, or to retrace a morning pullback. Regardless, this being a three-day holiday weekend, any sponsored trending should take place this morning. And this being a Friday, the morning’s bias often persists through the noon hour.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2651.00 would be likely to exceed the 2647.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2643.00 would be likely to trigger the 2640.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2637.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.