Pre-market Tour

I had not noted any Fed speakers today, but apparently Bullard has snuck in to make comments. And they’re not helping the rally to resume. But they’re helping our bearish scenario, as the retest of yesterday’s 2045.00-2045.75 target area is now being reversed, aggressively, to attack this morning’s 2034.50 bias-down signal.

Holding the bias-down signal’s test would put into play an offsetting test of this morning’s bias-up signal — at 2045.50, essentially the overnight high. Triggering bias-down would suggest that sellers are exploiting their strengths before their hesitation is exploited by buyers.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

Pre-open action has continued narrowing around this morning’s 2936.75 bias-down signal. Peaks have been lower and lower, forming a Descending Triangle that suggests extending lower. Even if we were 100% certain of recovering from the overnight dip, reactions to events such as in Belgium still often take an intraday dip to process and absorb. Bouncing immediately post-open would be likely to fail.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

Unrelated to the bandwidth issue that is now resolved, the recording facility did not engage for this morning’s pre-market Tour.

The discussion began by noting that Friday’s session was unremarkable to the naked, mainstream eye. We know of the new high close on a Friday that entrenches the rally by committing it to at least one eventual higher close. But we also know that need not be produced today.

We also know of the bullish WedEX influence on Friday afternoon’s recovery. Regardless of where today opens or exits the open, the balance of the morning should rally aggressively. This WedEX setup is being threatened by the pre-open slide back down into negative territory, so that will be our initial focus.

Elsewhere, the long bond is confirming my suspicions that Thursday and Friday’s strength was weak-handed and that new lows are required to finish forming a bottom. Gold is confirming its break under 1262.00 to 1250.20 support is not bullish. Crude Oil is trying to recover from overnight weakness, but probably only to retest Friday’s opening gap at 42.00-42.30 (basis May). And Natural Gas is gapping down, but not under a prior low so the 1.99 target remains intact.

I tried to review all of today’s relevant influences. We got to most of them:

• Expiration Quadruple Witch
• Expiration’s opening 15 minute trending
• Wednesday’s confirmed breakout
• Bullish WedEX
• Overnight neutralized attractions
• Yesterday’s rally not gaining traction
• Friday Factors
• Potential new trend high close today

As for the open, triggering bias-up would be given a benefit of the doubt, but meanwhile a morning pullback that doesn’t trigger bias-down is the likelier scenario.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

The reaction up from 2006.00 has extended up to 2016.00. That’s still not enough to ensure resuming the rally this morning, and it might have created a new attraction to renewed selling.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.