Pre-market Tour

The pre-open consolidation finally broke higher to fulfill its minimum 1907.00 objective, up to 1908.75. That’s a good start at this stage of the pattern for resuming the rally without delay. But that also depends on extending through1907.00 through the open. Otherwise, it’s as good a start to trending back down through the morning.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

The overnight slide had extended down to 1876.50 before surging pre-open to attack 1884.00. Another 2-3 points higher could marginalize sellers for the day while targeting fresh highs well above 1900.00. But resuming the overnight slide could also resume the retracement of Sunday night’s gains, perhaps back down under Friday’s 1960.00 highs.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

The overnight recovery to 1847.50 reacted down to 1837.25. Surging in reaction to 8:30’s econ report probed a fresh high up to 1848.50, but only momentarily as another reaction down is testing this morning’s 1841.25 bias-up target as support.

Resuming the recovery into the open would be the most reliable among bullish setups at this stage of the pattern. Otherwise, just standing still would suggest that new buyers aren’t being attracted, only adding to impatience ahead of the impending 3-day holiday weekend illiquidity.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

The most bearish element of the open is not the substantial gap down currently indicated, because it’s still the product of only one timing window. It’s not the relentlessness of the overnight decline, because that’s often reversed post-open from support. And it’s not the proximity to prior lows.

The most bearish element off the open is the pre-open bounce. Spiking down momentarily to touch 1802.50 had reacted up initially to 1818.50. That was awhile ago, and it has been pierced by 1 point, but not extended.

So, not only has room been created to attract another downleg, but the bounce isn’t attracting sponsorship for extending higher. At least, not yet. A post-open surge would be credible for extending higher this morning. Otherwise, at least a retest of the low is likely.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

For only the second time that I can recall, Yellen lifted the embargo on this morning’s 10:00am opening remarks much earlier. Last time was at 8:30am, causing the market to scramble. This time was much earlier, in time to prevent the overnight rally’s latest breakout from extending. In fact, fresh highs at 1872.00 were already retracing, and then plunged to 1859.00. That’s been retested down to 1856.00.

Did that last dip subdue optimism, like yesterday’s last reaction down, which was bullish from a contrarian perspective? We’ll know soon, especially if 1857.25 holds as support through the open. Otherwise, there’s room down to yesterday’s 1856.50 “lower prior highs” and a little lower before reversing momentum back down more durably.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.