Pre-market Tour

Bouncing from the 1909.25 overnight low tested and retested (and re-retested) the 1920.00 area. A reaction down is testing (and retesting) 1911.00 as support — maintaining its break through the open would renew the 1915.50 bias-down target, making the open almost a make-or-break situation.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

The overnight pullback extended lower to attack 1913.00. Gapping under it would invalidate Friday’s close above 1924.00. The close already was suspicious, but it’s now official that higher targets are not in-play. Now the recovery is on defense.

None of which confirms the trend is reversing back down.

Exiting the weekend with extreme sentiment is often a sentiment extreme. Trending relentlessly overnight is often reversed at the open. And testing “lower prior highs” as support within last week’s trading range can launch another rally effort.

Extending down anyway through the open may be irrecoverable. But we’ll monitor for recovery potential if new sellers aren’t being attracted post-open.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

Support at the 1893.50 bias-up signal was probed more aggressively in reaction to GDP. But its blip-down to 1888.00 reacted back up into the range, again attacking the 1898.50 bias-up target. The burden of proof is on sellers above 1891.50.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

The overnight rally to 1896.00 had been retraced back down through 1887.50 and 1882.00 to 1873.00. Threatening to resume yesterday afternoon’s drop was countered by RSIs diverging positively. And now another bounce to 1882.00 has recovered to attack 1896.00 again.

The upside potential includes fresh highs testing 1913.00. I’ll only consider buy signals until some other setup were to suggest that 1892.00 and 1887.50 won’t hold as support. The consequence to failing this second recovery attempt would likely probe fresh lows down to 1859.50.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.

The overnight range is improving ahead of the open. Fresh highs are now only 3-4 points under yesterday’s 1896.00 close, which is a 2-3 point improvement from the overnight range.

It’s also above the 1887.50 bias-down signal. Testing it intraday and holding its test would put into play an offsetting test of the 1898.00 bias-up signal.

At least retesting yesterday’s highs is still likely even if bias-down isn’t first tested and rejected, but we wouldn’t have the confidence of it being required. Similarly, triggering bias-down would likely retest overnight lows.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.