Pre-market Tour

We discussed the pre-open Complex pattern that would allow a fresh opening low to recover sharply this morning — if the fresh low and its recovery were obvious during the opening 15 minutes of volatility.

Otherwise, bouncing too much first, or not already recovering, would open the door to much lower lows.

The recording is below. (The anymeeting back-up room is now available here.)

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
http://www.anymeeting.com/nrodpywxnayx/E952DF83854A38

The overnight Symmetrical Triangle has broken lower. Sharply lower. The 261.8% extension at 2045.50 is the break’s low.

Now the pattern may try conforming to its common resolution, namely –f breaking falsely in one direction, and then reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. This would require a reversal to be underway and obvious during the opening 15 minutes of volatility.

A retest the pre-open low isn’t necessary, but can be dismissed if only a blip-down and recovered early. Otherwise, extending down could test 2029.00 and potentially 2019.50 today.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
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A shallowly weak open would still be able to probe fresh highs this morning, or else this afternoon. Pre-open selling is testing that limit, all but likely to probe under yesterday’s 2065.00 noon hour low. Recovering it through the open back above 2069.00 and 2070.50 could have a rubber band effect that surges to fresh highs. Otherwise, the weak open won’t be so shallow, after all, opening the door to a much weaker morning.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
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The 5-point pullback from touching Thursday’s 2059.75 high was recovered to fresh highs. Much higher fresh highs, at 2063.75. Now a two-week old pivotal high is being tested. Testing it post-open but not exceeding it would be likely to back-and-fill this morning back down to the 2055.00 area.

That’s not the bearish template. Backing-and-filling would help to siphon off excess optimism and to find buyers below. The bearish template would fail to hold the 2055.00 area as support, and the 2050.50 bias-up signal, while plunging into negative territory.

Trending sharply and relentlessly overnight leaves the door wide open to any near-term resolution.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
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Overnight selling pressure has been extreme, as considered by two characteristics: Its decline has been relentless in only trending down, and its production has been substantial in already testing the 2041.50 bias-down target.

Exiting the weekend with extreme sentiment is often a sentiment extreme. There’s already a bounce from 2040.25 testing 2045.50. That might allow a post-open dip to retest the bias-down target before resuming the recovery, but it’s not necessary.

Extreme sentiment can extend post-open. Not holding the bias-down target would renew the bias-down signal, so be careful considering whether to buy a post-open dip that hasn’t yet started recovering.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfyhytj