Pre-market Tour

The overnight rally to fresh highs at 2066.50 has reacted back down to attack 2062.00. That’s still 2-3 points above yesterday’s 2060.00 cash session close, but 3-4 points under the bias-up and its preliminary signal. Actually rallying this morning will need to recover that pullback quickly and relentlessly. Otherwise, the possible consequence is a morning drop back down to and through yesterday’s lows.

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The overnight dip to 2057.50 had neutralized the attraction below at 2058.50. But its reaction only formed a trading range. Its probe under yesterday’s lows wasn’t actually rejected. And now 2057.50 is being probed more deeply down to 2054.50.

The 2053.50 bias-down target is just 1 point lower. Holding its test through 10:15 can avoid renewing the bias-down signal. Reacting up from its test might even recover the 2058.50 bias-down signal through 10:15 avoid triggering it. Anything short of that is more vulnerable to extending lower to probe Thursday’s 2047.00-2048.00 “lower prior highs.”

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The overnight dip has recovered back to Friday’s 2066.00 futures close, but still 5-6 ticks from Friday’s 2069.00 cash session closing equivalent. This doesn’t change there being little reliability in resolving one way or the other from opening within the range. Be careful not to force a trade.

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The spikes up to 2074.50 have continued retracing into the open, now probing into 2065.00-2066.00. And I just finished describing this area as being the likely pullback limit for maintaining 2074.50‘s potential retest. I’m suspicious of the retest’s ability to extend much higher before peaking, let alone reversing down. Under 2063.50 would start to confirm my suspicion, without the detour of probing a fresh high.

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Hovering just under 2016.75 suddenly surged to 2023.50 during Mario Draghi’s press conference. That attacked yesterday afternoon’s 2024.25 highs, whose immediate recovery could have marginalized sellers. But the threat came too early to be maintained. Besides, Mario was still talking, allowing a 61.8% reaction down to 2018.00.

But that’s natural support, and Mario is still talking, allowing a recovery to 2023.00. Is a gap up above yesterday afternoon’s 2024.25 highs possible, after all? That won’t be relevant if the opening 15 minutes doesn’t touch 2024.25. But if it is tested, then recovering it or not through the open could be very predictive.

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