Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s last 45 minutes ultimately bounced. And not a little, rallying 13 points in 3 distinct legs. But the late surge to 2673.00 originated from fresh session lows at 2660.00. The session until then was an ongoing series of lower lows and lower highs, beginning from unchanged at 2693.00. And its intraday downtrend persisted through the afternoon bias environment to fulfill day-one of a bearish WedEX setup.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s gap up to 2683.00-2685.00 immediately extended Friday’s late bounce. And then it immediately ended. Consolidating back down to 2673.00-2674.00 repeatedly had stopped short of filling the gap back to Friday’s 2671.50 close. Finally probing lower through Europe’s opens only got to 2666.50, which is already reacting back up to unchanged around 2673.00.

If, then…
Having been influential Friday afternoon, WedEX should be very influential Monday morning. That doesn’t preclude gapping up or down, however sharply, before the post-open influence takes over. Neither does it prevent opening flat. Meanwhile, optimism at Friday’s low — stopping short of an outstanding gap around 2658.00 — is persisting overnight. Opening above 2685.00 would have suggested that something has changed dramatically, and that’s not currently indicated. But pre-open or post-open action selling should soon become aggressive if the ongoing optimism is bearish from a contrarian perspective.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2677.50 would be likely to trigger the 2675.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2662.75 would be likely to trigger the 2665.50 bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday began with a clean slate, having neutralized two pieces of “unfinished business below” overnight and pre-open at 2703.75 and 2702.25. A lot of selling pressure had been expended during Globex just to get there. Holding those levels as support through the open would have established a floor for the day. But the gap down extended, setting the opposite tone for the day, and reinforcing the bearish WedEX. Trending down throughout the day to 2681.50 neutralized attractions below, like “lower prior highs” and filling the gap back to Monday’s close. Another opportunity to establish a floor, but even a 12-point spike up to 2699.00 was barely maintained through the close, reacting down to 2691.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Globex’s initial objective was to retrace most of the 12-point spike up not already retraced intraday. And bouncing off of 2688.00 was mostly recovered back to the spike’s high. But another drop into and out of Europe’s opens retraced most of yesterday afternoon’s recovery back down to 2683.00. Its reaction has gradually worked its way higher, now testing 2696.00.

If, then…
Friday morning isn’t required to bounce, and yesterday’s headline reaction hasn’t brought in new sponsorship. Rallying this morning without gapping up would be doomed to failure, although rallying at all would still be challenged by the afternoon’s bearish WedEX influence. Maintaining a gap down under yesterday’s low would form a “session-long decline” setup, which can be magnified by expiration’s influence.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2685.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2688.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2692.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s on-again / off-again bullishness fulfilled minimum upside objectives by probing 3 points above 2715.00. No unfinished business above was left outstanding, having met the morning’s 2718.25 bias-up target and triggering the afternoon’s no-bias. While relevant resistance held, relevant support did not, closing back under the 2711.50 down to 2709.00-2710.00 Sounds bearish, and it may be. But the day was also wide-ranging and choppy, so trending has yet to reverse down. But that still triggered a bearish WedEX, albeit passive. Unfinished business below was left outstanding at oversold RSIs at Wednesday’s 2703.75 low and at the morning’s 2702.25 no-bias parameter.

Overnight action’s new info…
Bouncing at the Globex open soon peaked at 2713.25 and hovered there well beyond midnight. Then price gave way, first back down to natural support at Wednesday’s 2709.00-2710.00 close. Then more dramatically back down to Wednesday’s 2703.75 low. Bouncing into Europe’s opens tested 2709.00-2710.00 but retraced it all as quickly. A narrowing range has developed back down to 2703.75.

If, then…
Already responding to there being no unfinished business above seems bearish. And it may be. But quickly trying to exploit the situation also can mean less sponsorship. If reinforcements aren’t attracted, then the effort will have been premature, and its trapped sponsorship will fuel a short-squeeze. Gapping down under 2702.25 can still reinforce the bearish WedEX. Holding a test of 2702.25 can establish a low that holds through tomorrow morning.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2702.25 would be likely to trigger the 2705.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2711.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s open compensated for Monday’s failure to recover 2681.50. Probing it late Monday afternoon had dipped back under it through the cash session close, and barely settled back up at it. But overnight action had firmed and extended enough for the open to absorb a 7-point drop to 2692.50 without even threatening to re-enter Monday’s range. The opening dip was quickly absorbed, and the rally was quickly resumed. It extended into the noon hour up to 2708.50, and resumed coming out of the afternoon bias environment. The next higher objective at 2715.00-2722.00 was attacked to within 5 ticks during Tuesday’s last half-hour. Another pullback similar to the open’s dip still found time to test the morning’s highs down to 2705.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday’s late reaction down from 2713.75 immediately extended a couple of points lower to 2703.75. The blip-down was retraced as quickly, and soon so was much of Tuesdays late reaction down. Flat-to-higher action since then has repeatedly pierced yesterday’s high, until now actually probing fresh highs up to this morning’s 2718.25 bias-up target.

If, then…
Maintaining a gap up Tuesday triggered by proxy the setup that almost triggered Monday afternoon, which points higher through this morning. That’s still likely, especially since the open isn’t indicated to gap down. Yesterday’s late dip also helped by restraining optimism, but too late for sellers to gain traction. That restraint continued overnight by remaining within yesterday’s range. And only now probing fresh highs comes early enough not to be considered last-minute, or doomed. That said, one bearish setup would quickly test 2722.00 and then reverse back under 2715.00. Otherwise, this afternoon’s resolution to a morning rally — extending higher, or reversing back down — could be a function of the Beige Book reaction and WedEX influences, along with the 2715.00-2722.00 objective’s status.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2715.00 would be likely to trigger the 2711.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2709.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday did what all of last week’s attempts did not — closing above 2672.00. Sunday night’s gap up attacking Friday’s highs helped. Closing above 2672.00 was no longer enough to put into play the next higher objectives at 2715.00-2722.00. That now also included closing above 2680.50 and its room for noise up to 2681.50. Monday’s cash session close didn’t reject 2681.50, so much as dipping 5 points back under it. Futures settled at 2681.50, still not fulfilling a breakout.

Overnight action’s new info…
Holding 2681.50 through  Monday’s close didn’t prevent resuming the rally overnight. Monday’s 2687.00 high was pierced momentarily into and out of Asia’s opens. Firmly recovering wasn’t prevented by weak economic data from China, extending up to 2696.00 ahead of Europe’s opens. A correction to 2688.00 has now been recovered back up to 2696.00.

If, then…
Buyers gained no traction for their efforts Monday, so only gapping up would be reliable for extending higher. This morning’s 2691.00 bias-up target has already been probed by 5 points. Almost every bullish template is active on this setup. Generally, either immediately extending the gap up or absorbing a post-open reaction down would be credible for trending up intraday. We had discussed a late-afternoon setup that reacted down instead of up, which would have pointed higher through Wednesday morning — maintaining a gap up would put that setup back into play.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2692.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2691.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2688.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2684.50 bias-up signal at 10:15.