Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Waiting until very near Tuesday’s open before finally breaking above Monday’s overnight ranging is usually an unsustainable setup. So its surge to 2753.50 was retraced back down to “lower prior highs” at 2748.00. But not any lower, and the bias environment eventually extended to probe its 2757.50 bias-up target by 1 point. Being late didn’t prevent probing higher later, either, as the afternoon bias environment touched 2760.00 during a very weakly signaled bias-up. The bias environment’s probe wasn’t maintained through its exit, and the last half-hour returned to the 2751.00 opening print.

Overnight action’s new info…
Tuesday’s late slide was never retraced or corrected. Fluctuating around it in a 3-point range broke lower into and out of Europe’s opens to test what is this morning’s 2745.00 bias-down target. Consolidating there has since broken sharply lower to 2737.00 on headlines that China is easing its US Treasury purchases. Presumably, this refers to Treasury debt obligations, and not to the US Treasury itself, which we have on good authority Russia already owns by proxy. Anyway, a bounce to 2744.00 is now reacting back down at least 3 points.

If, then…
I noted in yesterday’s Market Wrap that similar opening and closing levels at a new extreme often identify that extreme as being durable. Yesterday’s 2751.00 open was retraced into the close, which overnight action had ranged around before breaking lower. There wasn’t any further distributive action, but the reversal is that much more credible. So, lower lows are likely before any bottoming attempt would be credible for holding, let alone for recovering. Still being so young, the reaction down could be rendered moot by opening back in positive territory above 2751.00. Otherwise, extending the young decline through the morning could produce aggressive bounces along the way down — which I would be more interested in selling than buying.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] (Note: The bias-down target was misreported last night. It is 2745.00) Exiting the open under 2747.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 2750.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2742.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2745.00 bias-down target by 10:15, which would renew the bias-down signal — its renewed target is essentially the 2739.75 area, whose break through 10:15 would next target 2730.75.

Phonetic dictation…
well good morning it is Wednesday it’s time for Wednesdays Morning Market to her and there’s something you don’t see every year I haven’t seen it this year at least that’s a pretty big reaction down through a concerted timing window substantial drawdown to dance to at least downtrend happens to be a basement not very complete so I’m expecting more unless one thing happens only one thing first of all it’s point out how we got here and just to reiterate every single day the open already in Decline so at least this is qualifying yesterday so near the open that sponsorship tends to be weak handed or at least in need of reinforcements so it was doubly important to find out how coming back for those reinforcementsit is 2745 which turns out to bid influential and will be influential if it’s recovered not as influential as if 2750 is recovered or 51 yesterday’s open and basically closing levels and more so if there’s since Rock camping up having proved under yesterday’s range overnight there is only one other bullish set up a voice signal for this morning’s open. That we can’t rally without a bow that overnight probe to the overnight by recovering before the open to Gap or not the Gap at the open back above yesterday’s was the mornings Lowe’s preferably back in positive territory all together that would isolate this overnight drop everything to get to the market just whateversoalright fast forward so 3725 is being tested here overnight so far as the low notice anything about previous price action that has developed there it is been basically doing this window after the afternoon bias environment Friday afternoons by its environment had lapsed and then Monday morning during the open during the otherwise your relevant open don’t make anything of the different sizes in these rectangles are drone free hand to the point being that this is a recovery if it does launch recovery not just back above the bias down Target but above the bias down signal and back into positive territory gold and silverabove the weeks prior highs if gold break higher is rejected early then we’ll give it a benefit of the doubt that perhaps the rubber band snapping back down that it was waiting for that news that it was held up artificially but without reacting down through the morning and gold that’s the line in the stand silver as well although it’s not performing as bullishly overnight optimistically has goldinsteadall right Looney trying to hold this 80 3738 area to produce a reaction up a test of the spiked High which is often tested I can’t really get a short off while waiting for that until that happens the pound bouncing again just widespread bouncing I noticed that the Gap backup to Monday’s close is being attacked neutralized that and modest upside Potential from there if any and the Aussie bouncing 15300 and it’s been straight down since then two more fresh Lowe’s while it is bouncing seems to be bouncing on the news or at least ultimately the other the real premise that we have is at or the other pretty much to a new I what is a day in crypto anyway

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Sunday night’s opening surge to 2747.75 was retraced relentlessly down to 2736.25 before Monday’s open, probing under Friday’s 2742.00 close. Bouncing into the open would have recovered 2742.50 to reject the overnight slide, but it was barely attacked. Breaking under 2739.00 would have extended the decline, but it held two tests. Firming into the bias environment’s exit resumed the rally back up to the overnight high, which held through the close. Friday’s requirement for a new trend high close was fulfilled, while the afternoon’s 2750.25 bias-up target was left outstanding.

Overnight action’s new info…
Still hovering narrowly around Sunday night’s 2747.75 high, reacting to news from China finally triggered a dip to attack 2742.50. That was the overnight low, and it was quickly reversed into a recovery to retest Sunday night and Monday afternoon’s highs. Fresh highs at 2749.00 have so far held.

If, then…
Yesterday afternoon’s rally was reaction, and not action. In other words, it was a product of the overnight and morning’s reversal attempt having failed. Closing above the overnight highs would have reflected new sponsorship. Last night’s action is a shallower version of the same pattern, absorbing a post-open dip only to find significant resistance at the prior high. None of which prevents extending the rally today, even through the close. It’s more of a requirement that not extending the rally through today’s close may prevent it from extending. Meanwhile, probing fresh highs intraday would be vulnerable to another post-open dip, and potentially a deeper correction or reversal of the rally.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2750.25 would be likely to trigger the 2749.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2745.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Tuesday it’s time for Tuesday’s Morning Market to order this is a regularly linked week 5 days so Wednesday is going to be pretty interesting but for now one thing that is interesting is we found some resistance you don’t need opening night attacking 4827 48 it’s recovery intraday on Monday being limited to a test of the opening surge let’s go on keep going it 2748 last night’s open ranging continuing the fluctuation Arrow fluctuation of Monday afternoon around 2748 and then another recovery after note after an overnight dip on some news from China recovery detest 2748 we see a different picture from open to close or comparing open to close barely on Thursday but extending higherdid they spell any possibility that it might be out there a retest of it might be unfinished no unfinished business about so if there is a reaction down it does have a lot of leeway it would have a lot of leeway in that residence here’s the last up late just measured from the upper end of resistance to the consolidation that had developed into the end of the year yeah we can get just as a aggressive speculative impatient pull back down to 2727 2727 75 that’s not minor and it could happen in a fairly quick or Fell Swoop so just keep that in mind to still maintainall theside days in both does relieve some of the pressure of a up down cuestionario but it also accelerates the timing for a resolution to the up-down crash scenario from this inside day today is either going to be nearly ranged or a hold support and therefore avoid the up-down crash in area resolution or resolving the resolving the not likely but the downside does remain vulnerable I want to see a little bit deeper on copper what’s the difference not that it should take so long but I mean said that the overnight that was basicallylast weekend since its open and tried to resume the decline with the likelihood being for a retest of the Lowe’s is trying to avoid that again bouncing a little bit overnight search spiking up but

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Rallying again overnight greeted Friday’s Employment Situation report at new highs attacking the morning’s 2733.00 bias-up target. Its knee-jerk reactions, both up and down between 2730-2735, greeted the open where the report was greeted. It was still a gap up, but it was retraced back down under Thursday’s “lower prior highs” to 2726.50 long enough to hold the 2727.75 bias-up signal as support. The balance of the morning recovered to touch the pre-open high. And when the afternoon’s no-bias environment began lapsing, the balance of the session trended up to a new high at 2743.25. The cash session and futures closes were closely centered around 2742.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open was of one mind, and the balance of the night has been quite different. Spiking up 6 points immediately attacked 2648.00. And that was the end of any upside, no complexity that might otherwise require intraday retest. Ranging flat-to-lower met stronger selling pressure at Europe’s opens that triggered a 4-point drop to unchanged. Unchanged supported a choppy range that is now probing into negative territory down to 2737.75.

If, then…
Friday’s new trend extreme close requires at least another eventual higher close, regardless of any interim price action. Sunday night’s high doesn’t satisfy that requirement. And the requirement need not be fulfilled today. Meanwhile, the week is starting off quite differently than did the first week — let alone, each of the first week’s four sessions, which maintained overnight rallies. Exiting the open in negative territory after having probed above Friday’s highs could marginalize sellers for the day. Exiting the open under Friday’s last relative low — which is now being tested at 2739.00 — could reverse momentum down for at least the morning. So, already probing negative territory, exiting the open back above Friday’s high would make the overnight high’s retest today likely.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2742.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2743.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2745.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
okay good morning and welcome it’s well welcome back it is Monday here’s something we haven’t done in a while a Monday market tour it is the first full week of the year 5 days a week first nine holiday week no almost we have a holiday next week which is why there is no no Saturday review this coming weekend so another one Monday to her but anyway as for last night I started someone for trading days of the year which themselves all open to end not so aggressively though as last night’s rally begin maybe a littlethere’s levels can’t hold through the open again after having proved the overnight or after having probed the prior sessions High overnight that tends to reverse momentum down so quite a different possibility for today then the last four days of course by the same token there’s a bearish set up every single element except for greeting reopen under Friday’s highs if they open is greeted under Friday’s highs under the overnight low and yet the open well as or will likely be is bullish as it could have been bearish and it could have been very bearish3 non consecutive negative closes that doesn’t always resolve in an up-or-down crash but the the alternative the last Light clear but occasional alternative is just arrange nearly sideways as that overbought situation is just neutralized that’s going to be the challenge here and silver as well a little lower but still in its range and it’s got some room or at least a little weaker flat to lowerbeforebarely been attacked on Friday and overnight that attraction about being the Gap back to Tuesday’s close in the Looney just gonna run away here not trending to a new I close but spikes or off and retested so that’s that’s not a pattern I would fade and if there’s any kind of pull bag limit it’s 80 card 8040 that if tested would likely reverse back up to at least a fresh High if not refresh eye closed wood top and then the Yen which is

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Closing above 2703.00 Wednesday had put into play 2722-2727. Rallying overnight greeted the open at 2719.00 quickly extended higher. And higher. The higher target was fulfilled as the morning’s bias environment began. Perhaps The balance of the session ranged widely between 2722-2727, not closing beyond either end to trigger a breakout in either direction.

Overnight action’s new info…
Breaking higher hasn’t ended, but it’s starting later and later. Last night’s ranging finally started rallying at Europe’s opens. Wednesday night had resumed rallying before midnight, and Tuesday’s intraday rally barely stopped. Today’s 2733.00 bias-target is now being attacked to within 1 tick as a shallow consolidation resolves up. There is complexity that already makes this a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring intraday retest, often the same day.

If, then…
Was yesterday’s late-afternoon’s weakness was caused by anxiousness ahead of the next morning’s Employment Situation report? Europe’s exchanges were closed then, and last night’s rally didn’t start until they had re-opened. So, already extending higher doesn’t reflect local optimism. Restrained optimism ahead of monthly payrolls actually tends to react favorably. Whether reacting well or recovering from a knee-jerk reaction down, trending up through the open could marginalize sellers for the morning and possibly also for the day. But the overnight origin of these new highs suggests it’s not optimism for the report. AND resistance at the bias-up target is already being attacked. So, be equally prepared for the rally’s sponsorship to disappear.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Preliminary indications aren’t available ahead of Employment Situation reports.

Phonetic dictation…
hey good morning and welcome it is Friday it’s time for Friday morning Market to order quick quick note quick programming note at the top throw Saturday so we have a Saturday review it’s been several weeks because of the holiday weekends but we have a Saturday review this weekend with a Saturday review next weekend I think the next two weekends and then the last week of the month we actually skipping the following weekend back again so get it while you can instructions will be emailed in the morning tomorrow morning this morning we have again overnight and that pretty muchthat all aside I just know that if the open Trends up and if it Trends up after having reacted down need your reaction down if it Trends up just maintaining the overnight rally if the reaction brings in more shorts short-covering just trending up through the open will get every benefit of the dad for being able to extend higher in today after this pattern though just know that if that is not happening the open isn’t trending up if there is at this stageTripoli opposed or at least in the majority of outcomes there are outcomes that work out their issues by consolidating and relieving that big stretch of the rubber band that big stretch of the rubber band that’s either going to snap back down imagine yourself stretching a rubber band between your thumb and index finger with one hand and with the other thumb and index finger of the other hand stretching it back and it’s some point one or the other gives either you’re stretching it back let’s go and then rubber band snaps back so here’s the stretch and then it snaps back back down or the rubber band and you’re stretching it and then your hand goes flying in that direction in I call that the up down crash up down cuz it one way or anothernatural gas we could still have a couple big down days here coming down to 78th and that’s pretty much the limit of the pullback just as a correction because of these ongoing series of gaps up closing higher that’s a lot of strength not that it’s a lot of momentum that requires breaking higher but it creates a context to help absorb absorb a reaction down because there’s nothing there or rainforestbut I wouldn’t I would be surprised if that suddenly stopped Bitcoin this pattern not Barrett as I pointed out a couple days ago that didn’t prevent the dip there’s anything we need to dip was going to be recovered because it was originating from a bullet pattern short of that pattern size that pessimism despite having and we’ll go from there but still looking for 17000 alright

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s rally extended overnight until piercing Friday’s 2698.25 pre-open high. Tuesday’s late 2696.00 high held a reaction down that suddenly resolved up at Wednesday’s open. Both bias-up parameters were exceeded to renew the bias-up signal, and the morning peaked at 2708.50. The noon hour’s breakout ultimately triggered the afternoon’s bias-up signal and peaked at its 2714.00 bias-up target. Reacting back down through the close touched the morning’s 2708.50 high. But closing above 2703.00 still put into play the next higher objective at 2722-2727.

Overnight action’s new info…
Other than starting a little later, extending the intraday rally to fresh highs has been identical to Tuesday night’s pattern. Both probed only slightly higher, neither formed a “new Globex trend extreme” yet requiring intraday retest, and both reacted back down down to touch the prior session’s high nearer to the open. one difference now forming is the dip back into yesterday’s range has been recovered back up to its origin, and now fresh highs are testing 2717.00 overnight high.

If, then…
Today’s version of the similar overnight pattern is starting to deviate further from yesterday’s. That difference might greet the open hovering at session highs, or might even develop into a surge. Regardless, a short-entry will be difficult prior to a post-open retest of overnight highs, and then its reversal. But a pre-open shallow dip would still be likelier to recover back to overnight highs. Entering the noon hour back under 2703.00 may be the only path still available to prevent extending to 2722-2727.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2714.00would be unlikely to trigger the 2715.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2709.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2706.00 bias-down signal.