Pre-market Tour
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Another window opens.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
If seasonal holiday bullishness was influential Friday, then it was by absorbing the open’s dip. Thursday night’s 3-4 point bounce had failed already before Friday’s 2688.00 open. The reaction down into the open persisted through the bias environment exit, attacking 2682.00. Bouncing through the afternoon probed the open’s high by several ticks up to 2689.50, before dropping 3 points into the close. Not a wide intraday range, and never straying very far or for very long off of unchanged, but not rallying.
Overnight action’s new info…
Friday afternoon’s range has contained a couple of wide swings since Monday night’s open. Friday’s last-minute dip was immediately retraced, entirely back to Friday’s late 2698.50 high. But no higher, and soon the night’s first dip was attacking Friday’s lows to probe negative territory at 2684.00. Its reaction up has been much shallower, barely attacking 2687.00 before dipping back down into negative territory at 2684.50.
If, then…
“Unfinished business below” at 2679.00 and 2675.50 would still be targeted by trending back down Tuesday. But the window is closing for seasonal bullishness to contain the drop — the sooner they’re tested, the easier to attract sponsorship for a recovery. Another seasonally bullish window of influence opens Wednesday afternoon ahead of Friday’s early close and another holiday weekend. In the interim is a brief window for sellers to influence price down, if they can. The 2688.00-2692.50 resistance range remains influential, and gapping up above it is probably the only path higher. Its minimum reward isn’t much higher, being new highs at 2699.75-2700.75 or 2703.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2688.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2691.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2684.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2680.75 bias-down signal.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome welcome back it is December 26th a day after Christmas Tuesday it’s holiday shortened week not just because Monday was a holiday but also Friday will be closing early for another three day holiday weekend so seasonal bullishness that came in to last last week’s Market and prevented extending down would have been a couple of interesting mornings that nevertheless made Under Pressure through the day despite not extending down past the mornings low bounced on Thursday created some room to absorb a little more on Friday and now we come into a little bit of a window between that and the next weekendseasonal bullishness being a function of yo liquidityand there will be more of it next weekend so there’s a little window here today tomorrow maybe tomorrow into the afternoon where if there’s going to be declined at Now’s the Time to get it in here and if there’s going to be a decline contained this is also the time to get that done because of that seasonal boyfriend’s coming around so what might be an attraction or an objective there is an attraction and Wednesdays or low 2679 there is an objective at 2675 50 and bias Target outstanding an offsetting test actually that same sessions bias down TargetI tested it having been put into play by holding the offsetting test of the bicep Target which has otherwise contain door since contained price action anything lower starts to put in to Jeopardy deeper pull back 2667 area 2650 756 area show againwhich there is somewhat overnight there’s Friday’s recovery from the mornings low the entire buys apartment trying to down bounced and then pulled back into the clothes that was retraced but only retraced at last night’s open but not recovered we’re basically trending down overnight bounce low bounce on the way potentially do a little low one more lower low in here and we’ve got an overnight downtrend in playthat means under 26 83-75 would create a trend and would make the open likely to be under pressure in this area being under pressure makes the open likely to extender the morning likely to Extended 2679 2675 50 and if it gets done soon enough there will be enough time to inject a little more selling pressure little more distance down you can certainly get carried away with itself and be even more substantial than I’ve just described when there is a very brief window of time and it is going to be filled with one sponsorship things can get pretty steep and also deep so really will just bebut not be sitting there with a buy order add an objective not until being able to assess the price action leading into it same thing for Recovery there’s nothing that requires trending down here but recovering does pretty much required gapping up gapping up above Friday’s Highs at the least if not more so 2691 is the bias of a signal that will need to be recovered through 10:15 the reward for triggering bias up or for avoiding that window of selling pressure is the probe franchise 2699 75 20 703 that will be interesting if that’s the first move of the new week because as the last move of the last week gets underway that seasonal bullishness could get flipped on its head
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The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Silent night (except for Cryptos).
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Rallying 10 points from overnight lows had greeted Thursday’s open 2 points above Wednesday afternoon’s high. A session-long rally setup had formed. Similar to Wednesday’s open, the open failed to maintain its gap, and the setup did not complete. But unlike Wednesday, bias-up triggered anyway, and its 2692.50 target was met. The afternoon’s 2695.50 bias-up signal was tested, too, but not triggered. So the incomplete session-long rally setup influenced the balance of the afternoon, which fell 9 points to 2686.50, closing at 2688.00,
Overnight action’s new info…
The afternoon’s slide hasn’t extended any deeper. Quite the opposite, price has rallied relentlessly overnight. Neither steeply nor substantially, and less flat-to-higher than higher-to-flat. The bias-up signal isn’t even being attacked, currently. Nevertheless, the open is indicated higher. Currently… Cryptocurrencies were extremely volatile, to the downside. I review them at the end of the Market Tour recording.
If, then…
Yesterday’s noon hour exit surged decisively through the 2688.00-2692.50 range’s upper-end. But it never attracted reinforcements, as its bias-up signal test held, and the break’s retracement into the bias environment exit was exploited by probing the range’s lower-end into the close. Holding the range’s lower-end is similar to having held yesterday afternoon’s bias-up signal test — extending the move must be done forcefully to avoid reversing direction. Yesterday afternoon reversed instead of extending. If the open isn’t already extending yesterday afternoon’s slide, then the balance of the morning will likely be spent retracing it, or at least trying. Regardless, trending isn’t likely to extend or be rewarded this afternoon. It’s Friday, before a three-day holiday weekend. Not yet trending through the open could range narrowly through the close, while trending through the open could end by noon.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2694.25 would be likely to trigger the 2692.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2688.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it’s Friday time for Friday’s morning market tour reminder at the top there is no Saturday review this weekend for the holiday there’s no Saturday review next weekend either same reason so any side she have to review please go and post them in the chart room during the day we will do a little bit extra on the post Club well on the market wrap two things about that will incorporate some of the into the market wrap or normally that would be truncated because of the Saturday review comingpattern of early bounces early gaps failing or holding be advised that if 90 to 1950 is being tested at the open that’s no Assurance of it actually being recovered the trigger 1975 is the bias up signal holding its test mostly the afternoon alrightdoes suggest pessimism witches boys from a contrarian perspective so I’m not raising the cell signal and natural gas which is reported that could be tested overnight yeah the morning isn’t already rallying then 258 will probably be tested the Euro which came back to test 119 overnight having proved it overnight already before probably get overnight just having tested it yesterday required extending down today or the brake lower would not develop prior to 1:20 well only makes that elevates the immediacy of needing to break lower or else and that or else is defined as one 1965failed ascending triangle that needs to be pretty obvious pretty quickly so today is trying to follow through if that fails to follow through no second consecutive higher close confirming today becomes very bearish finally the Aussie
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The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Try, try again.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
With the window closing before the weekend’s seasonal holiday bullishness, resuming Tuesday’s drop couldn’t be delayed. And it would have to be aggressive to quickly reverse the 12-13 point overnight rally. Even more so for that already fulfilling the morning’s 2694.50 bias-up target. Extending any higher would have renewed the bias-up signal AND completed a session-long rally. But post-open sponsorship rejected both bias-up parameters, putting into play offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters. And failing to complete the session-long rally was as bearish as the setup would have been bullish. Plunging 13 points, and then 3 more, probed Tuesday’s lows down to 2679.00. Retesting its oversold RSIs became “unfinished business below,” along with a test of the morning’s 2675.50 bias-down target. The balance of the session ranged choppily sideways up to 2688.25, and back down to attack session lows.
Overnight action’s new info…
Narrow ranging between 2681.00-2684.00 pierced a fresh low momentarily at Europe’s opens. Quickly recovering back into the range eventually extended the reversal and to break above the range’s upper-end. Now yesterday afternoon’s 2688.25 high is being attacked to within 1 point, touching this morning’s 2687.25 bias-up signal.
If, then…
Another session-long rally setup may be forming. After trending down into yesterday’s close, gapping up above the afternoon bias environment’s high could complete the setup. No specific slope would be required, but sellers would be marginalized, ultimately with potential back up through 2688.50-2692.00 and to new highs above 2700.00. The setup’s basis isn’t yet fully formed by actually probing above yesterday afternoon’s high, perhaps because of the attractions outstanding below. They could be the cause of not completing the setup, too, if it does fully form. In either case, the attractions below could be met by choppiness around yesterday afternoon’s range, without maintaining a trending attempt in either direction. And we’ll anticipate exactly that — a failed attempt to trend down again, only to recover after neutralizing the unfinished business below — whether or not a session-long rally setup fully forms, so long as it isn’t completed.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2688.75 would be likely to trigger the 2687.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2684.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
okay good morning and welcome it is Thursday at 7 for Thursdays morning market tour look this afternoon for volume too slow not so much as it will tomorrow that is ahead of the three day holiday weekend which has a seasonal bullishness to it not again for the holiday cheer although it should so much as for just the liquidity impending a liquidityTodd that inhibits sponsorship from stepping in so what’s going on not a lot overnight really you can see the effects of that impending seasonal bullishness and the two sessions of at least morning declines yesterday’s being even more powerful for having rejected an overnight rally the rally right up into the bios of Target 9450 it and it’s 8950 X up signal being rejected through the opening by a tell me what does it is at 10:15 put it into playoff setting test of both buys down parameters 8150 RT 250Now 26 7550 is unfinished business below so is a retested yesterday’s 2679 low for it’s oversold are its eyes and there is some trending here some substantial trending really 6 points worth relative to the three-point overnight range previous to that substantial but it’s still within yesterday afternoon’s range that is setting up potentiallyperception Long Valley is completed after trending down into the prior close if the prior afternoons bias environment high is the afternoons high and then completed by maintaining a gap up above that afternoon High so yesterday was well above the afternoon high but it wasn’t maintained and that set up all but its completion turns out to be as bearish as it could have been bullish well this isn’t yet formed so there’s nothing yet to complete not until actually probing above yesterday afternoonthen we get to monitor weather yesterday afternoon’s high is recovered through the open and if it is that’s a session long railing 2688 226 9250 resistance probably gets taken out and take it out easily and then there’s no requirement in a session long rally for any specific slope or substantiality only that dips be recovered by higher highs we could be back at the housewhat if the session on rally is formed the setup for it is formed by actually testing probing us afternoon’s High 2688 25 and doesn’t complete again that’s as nice as it could have been bullish we can reverse-engineer this and suspect that if it is attempted it won’t succeed so much similar to yesterday’s doesn’t have to plunge but still probe yesterday afternoon’s High because of the be at risk failing to complete the session long Rally Set up and take out lower lows satisfy the unfinished business below2679 2675 50th tested likely to hold likely even to start recovering we can reverse-engineer the attempt not just the formation of a session long rally setup that would be unlikely to complete or if it completely give it every benefit of the doubt but if it doesn’t complete we’re looking lower the meanwhile until there’s actually that formation because of that unfinished business below and because all of this has been expended so recently without even touching yesterday afternoon time we still have to look at the attractions below againuntil then the trend is down or at least bottoming alright looking at other markets gold which Road tire yesterday pretty much cementing or entrenching the upside momentum really defining range that is largely expected to hold or contain closes doesn’t necessarily avoid getting probed intraday but one more higher close today would all but confirm that this is the leg that’s going to fulfill the 8350 objectivea lot of economic reports coming out this morning that could swing out of way but bottom line is that there’s lot of support that was taken out very aggressively yesterday with new sponsorship if it doesn’t detract reinforcements today then at least some sort of corrective bounce is in play and there is at newheiser is unfinished business above so because but not extendthat gapped up dip back to support and then closed higher that support is now a cell signal under 5745 there’s otherwise room up to 5870 before new Highs are targeted new recovery highs Natural Gasnot greeting today’s eia report from a position of strength as in Trenton but not from a position of weakness that would have been the case had there been any unfinished business left outstanding in fact the unfinished business so would be at 1 3395as far as looking for something to to Gage alternative buying pressures and selling pressures vs Bitcoin which since the introduction of Futures has become range-bound not surprising either
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The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Addicted to pessimism?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Waiting until literally the last minute, Tuesday’s open finally postured defensively ahead of the scheduled afternoon tax reform vote in the House. And despite not first probing fresh highs to stretch the rubber band, the pullback compensated for its delay. The morning’s 9-point drop to 2688.00 that would have sufficed if tested Monday, and could have sufficed on Tuesday, was broken on the way to the final hour’s 2683.25 low. Friday’s “lower prior highs” were less than 1 point lower.
Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday afternoon’s 2690.25 high was already being tested well before the Senate ended debate over tax reform. A narrow-2-point range at 2689.00-2691.00 into and out of the vote finally broke higher with Europe’s opens. Or, tried. Its reaction down to 2689.00. But it tried, tried again, reaching 2693.25, with the earlier narrow range’s 2691.00 upper-end now being tested as support.
If, then…
The basis for a “session-long rally” setup formed by Tuesday afternoon’s 2690.25 bias environment high being the afternoon’s high, and by closing action having trended down. Maintaining a gap up Wednesday above 2690.25 would complete the setup, and probably target those evasive new highs. Not actually triggering the setup could be as bearish as it would have been bullish — especially with the overnight rally offering the setup ample opportunity. Having delayed a simple corrective dip for so long, might the market now embrace its pessimism a little longer? Even without greeting the open at or above yesterday afternoon’s 2690.25 highs, extending down would next target 2675.00, and potentially lower.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2691.25 would be likely to trigger the 2689.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2687.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Wednesday it’s time for Wednesdays morning market tour look at yesterday afternoon yesterday afternoon we talked about this actually at the close we wouldn’t normally be or always be interested in identifying whether the afternoons High developed during the bias environment or if it was exceeded in a down trending day but it as it happened yesterday clothes Trend it down so we look back at the afternoons I and see that it did fall within the bias environment not after and that’s the basis for a session long rally setup if today’s open where to maintain a gap up above yesterday afternoon’s highs then that would Trigger or complete setup to form to complete a session long rally setup so when word of caution even if there hadn’t been youcity of jective minimum minimum consequences would be expecting alright Copper Still firming even more so more power to it gets every benefit of the doubt but only for having recovered 309 310 and now for having probed above this and negotiated this down trending resistance gold even though it might not interfere with the ultimate goal the ultimate upside of ejected in either gold or silver if the overnight High last night is not repeated today that thing for a second consecutive session and some deep purple back is likely to happen on Monday and never the last extended down aggressively yesterday and tested not only its pullback limit but also last week slow recoverycurrencies earlier and there’s not a just a follow-up one thing about your out is that it is back to testing this one 1930 1 1930 the original cell signal do I need to hold that to at least avoid a gap fill at the one 1970 which there’s just no bullish reason for his been in a backing and filling to resume it extended at 1.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Treading water lightly.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday’s open was greeted by Sunday night’s relentless rally. If overcome by sellers through the open, then it would reverse the trending back down. Not being overcome by sellers often resumes the overnight trending, although that’s not required. In fact, the 2692.50 open surged to 2698.00, much of which was maintained through the open. Despite absorbing sellers, the rally did not resume. But it was maintained, as the balance of the session ranged choppily sideways. Only the last of several intraday dips even touched the 2692.50 open, which a bounce largely retraced by 2-3 points into the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Extremely narrow ranging never measured as much as 2 points, until Europe’s opens triggered a surge back up to Monday’s 2698.00 high. That’s the most influence by Europe’s opens in awhile, if not their only influence in awhile, and it was still limited. Touching 2698.00 has reacted back down to the earlier overnight range’s 2696.00 upper-end.
If, then…
Never probing above yesterday morning’s high was surprising. At least one attempt was credible before getting diffused by noon hour noise, and stopping 1 tick short. Such restrained optimism could be constructive to maintaining the uptrend. But being at new highs, and being ahead of a weighty event like today’s tax reform vote, the restrained optimism suggests that buying pressure waning. The rally is expending its optimism in anticipation, leaving less to expend in reaction. Regardless of buying pressure waning, the pattern should still include at least a probe above yesterday morning’s high to 2699.75-2700.75 or 2703.00 before a deeper downdraft. Then the next question would be how deep of a downdraft. I’m assuming deep, because I’m also assuming the anticipation for today’s vote has maintained the rally artificially. Preventing a defensive, constructive downdraft to develop organically can make its eventual appearance compensate for the delay by dropping more substantially. And the seasonally bullish Christmas halt is leaving less time available, making a downdraft likely to be steeper.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2699.75 would be likely to trigger the 2697.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open u9nder 2692.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it’s Tuesday it’s time for Tuesday’s Morning Market or we’ve got Christmas trading halt coming up that is as of Friday’s close no open on Sunday night or Monday until the regular Monday evening Globex open every met up now just to point out travel maybe even Thursday to some degree on its own it just happens naturallyI would not be as complete of a pattern at the top here at the high here otherwise so I continue to look for at least a probe about yesterday’s highs before a durable downdraft would be as credible as it could be otherwise alright other markets so this influence is down trending influence on copper is remains influential I’m really only identifying a level here that’s of significance not really seeing a pattern that has gray predictive Powers gold firming higher it’s already got to confirm break out and play that struggling to of 8350 with likely resistance of 77 to 1850 silver that suggesting is 1665 and play the 61.8% of the uptrend of the rally that led to the would be the or likelyso would need to recover the clothes back above Friday’s close if it were to go to that extent in order to view that bullishly at that stage but the important thing is it yesterday closed about 271 so doing that at this point would be from a position of strength that’s a position and then basically go on a day tripany questions please go ahead and post them in the chart room and I’ll see you there before the open good luck today
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