Pre-market Tour
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Gapping up to resistance.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s gap up created the upper-end of a choppy range that would be supported by Wednesday’s highs. Its open quickly ran into resistance at 2563.75, which was soon retraced back down to touch Wednesday afternoon’s 2557.50 high as support. And so the range was born. A complete recovery blipped-up to 2565.00 momentarily on a headline, but the range sucked price back into it. A last-minute dip to fresh lows at 2555.50 was recovered into the range through the cash session close — futures extended to within 2 ticks of the open’s 2563.75 high. “Unfinished business below” was left outstanding at the morning’s 2550.50 objective.
Overnight action’s new info…
The intraday range persisted initially, until it did not. The very late post-close recovery to its upper-end repelled price back down to its 2557.50 lower-end. The lower-end’s strength repelled price back up to probe 2563.75 and to attack 2565.00. Finally, the mold was broken and a 3-point dip into Europe’s opens was reversed up sharply to test 2568.00. That has since extended to already test this morning’s 2569.00 bias-up target.
If, then…
Calculable unfinished business below at 2550.50 was created Thursday morning. A structural attraction remains at Wednesday’s touch of the 3-week old 2541.50 pivotal low. Overnight action suggests they’re being abandoned by a detour to neutralize the unfinished businesses above. Those are Sunday night’s 2577.25 “new Globex trend extreme” which requires an eventual intraday retest, and a new trend high close that was created last Friday. The highs’ attraction gets every benefit of the doubt, especially if 2572.50 were also recovered through a relevant timing window. But once again failing to maintain above 2563.75 — especially through the open — would start to signal an entirely different intraday experience than the overnight rally.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2561.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2563.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2566.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome it is Friday it’s time for Friday’s Morning Market to her quick programming out at the top there is no just a reminder there is no Saturday review this weekend no Saturday review and if you have stocks to look at please bring them up this morning or early afternoon to make sure that we have time to cover them anything of relevance there is a lot of stuff that’s been happening this this week after the clothes we had three three kind of three high-profile high profile text stocks that announce earnings maybe it was their impending announcements Google Amazon that kept stuck in a Range nice reactions all immediate reactions as usual that can have more of that effect on us then a reaction reactive effect what happened after yesterday’s clothes remember yesterday is very last minute too late to be back up to 2560 by the cash from clothes 5750 was right after the cash station close all the way up to that we go 6325 attack in the mornings eyes do the Futures close which is why it was all the way down to 57 right back up to 6350 area this time with a different result this time the consolidation actually forming a flag Channel broke higher the channel ended at Europe’s opens I’ve got a catalyst and Broadway all the way up to 2569 indicated at this moment at this morning the resistance of this morning by 6350 so there’s no insurance that’s the way or evidence of new sponsorship not even reinforcements just a paradigm shift from yesterday’s mentality of choppy sideways Wednesday morning never paid the price for that no consequence other than being trapped in a Rangeoutstanding maintaining what would be tested in case 269 to the bicep Targetprioritizesif that’s Road he had Tuesdays High’s is probed are proved be probed intraday and don’t or A to Z Eddie timing window presumably the open for instance and doesn’t old is retraced that’ll put a limit or cap on upside momentum just as much as yesterday did maybe there won’t be any downside consequence other than to be trapped in a Range again how to get out if we’re going to test Tuesday’s eyes have to get out of both of them through whatever relevant I mean when do and then the attraction to retesting Sunday night size 25 3725 at the new low back strain extreme the potential for a new trend that’s necessary today but the potential for a new trend I close which is also unfinished business above could be satisfied or at least we would be Monday or Tuesday but the point is the downside is off the table if 2569 if Tuesday if Tuesday’s 2569 2575 highs or exceeded through whatever time and less reliably but still more so if 2563 75 R 25 6310 bicep signal simply triggers otherwise back under 25 6353 10:15 which would put into play and other signal in this case 5475 which presumably if it were Mets today would be on its way to 5050 which presumably if it were met would be on its way back to Wednesdays Lowe’s which presumably if that would be on its way to 2536 or lower we’re not going to be able to today unless the open does it unless they open Tuesday just won’t be enough to reject sellers are marginal opportunity to regain control it looks like this potentially maybe it’s a little less intrusive through whatever window to make sure that I remember what happened yesterday running into a little bit of difficulty what ultimately actually for the day which was holding a test of the prior afternoon size through a relevant window an opportunity to break below it through a relevant window that instead was recovered when they had been recovered when that relevant window closed when we got into the biased biased environment that Pryor High had been tested and held as support that really robbed sellers of their traction of their momentum it’s a Friday is likely to persist into the noon hour on Fridays more difficult to get sponsorship let alone counter-trend sponsorship if sponsorship is attracted is really difficult to counter thatso keep that in mind on Fridays Friday afternoon if it starts trending if or if it persists in trending Beyond you know if the afternoons by somebody’s exited above relevant High’s below relevant was that can get carried away just part of the Friday factors as far as the mornings bias persisting through the noon hour it’s a bit biased Target is Matt that becomes similar to having met and held a net and held that is buys Target that become similar to a meeting and holding the buy a signal so that I could put in a peek if we don’t get out above 2569 for the open if it’s tested any questions let me know think that’s it yeah that the range was going to resolve to the Peril of the downside attractions wrapping up is not the way to resolve Up Break Away II but it doesn’t gain sponsorship so it is in Jeopardy until the open recovering from the 25 doesn’t recover and as you can see doesn’t take the attraction below or down off the table huge long-awaited break back to let alone under one 1760 yesterday but no signs of stopping probably some compensation for the delay and then the Aussie as well also no signs of slowing or stopping at least silver which really disappointed yesterday by failing to hold its little range around 17 closing under the low of the testing of 17 has extended down overnight it’s likely the right now is 1650 and gold also big Heartbreaker all this work done around 12:50 12:50 close by and broke lower isn’t really extend accelerating its not at the moment but has Pro blower what it’s doing is testing the three week old low the 3-week olds so if you can hold 6650 which is being tested here overnight currently trying to hold if it could hold 6650 through the open and preferably having tested it get out of here rallyingget out of the open rally in that be entirelyretest to produce a corrective bounce to 1280 50 where we can look at this one more time for the potential to recover but that’s where the gold is up to right now the bond Longbine has won more lower close outstanding and potential for corrective bounce not one that I would position for but when to consider fading at resistance there was a slight bounce yesterday but really never got to resistance it was attractive enough to step in front of crude is really slow playing its recovery there’s another there’s a guy here after yesterday’s clothes so close to the minimum objective that the slow playing is essentially pessimism pessimism being bullish potentially bullish probably bullets from a perspective and finally Natural Gas coming into its Target here overnight 282-2284 that is the target of having broken 296 so the predictable of that leg is done doesn’t have to print Post open although just to 84 s different Post open to be done with that leg I’ll come back in mid morning and look for a bicycle if there’s any kind of and I will see you at the open today
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The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Explosive, handle carefully.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Intraday volatility continued its recent expansion Wednesday, not only with the morning’s plunge from 2565.00-2566.00 to the noon hour’s 2541.50 low, but also its afternoon recovery up to 2556.00-2557.50. Meanwhile, breaking under 2554.00 before morning bias environment lapsed and remaining under it into the afternoon bias environment entry suggests the decline’s sponsorship was strong-handed. No “unfinished business” was left outstanding, although bouncing from only a touch of the 3-week old low does also suggest the afternoon’s reaction was only obligatory.
Overnight action’s new info…
Yesterday’s last reaction down from 2557.50 had reacted up to 2555.00 at the cash session close. Futures extend the last-minute bounce to almost 2559.00. The enthusiasm had originated too late to be strong-handed sponsorship. That’s now somewhat evident by not really advancing since then, barely touching 2560.00. Only somewhat evident, since the last-minute surge hasn’t yet been rejected by narrow ranging whose attack on 2556.00 is now reacting back up through 2560.00 by 3 ticks.
If, then…
Although duration and timing spent under 2554.00 yesterday has established a anchor for sellers — making any bounce only temporary until a deeper correction is completed — gapping up Thursday is possible and would be credible for extending Wednesday afternoon’s recovery. Retesting Sunday night’s highs before first probing fresh lows would then likely form a durable top. Which gapping down Thursday would make likely, a probe under Wednesday’s 2541.50 low to at least test 2536.00. The narrow overnight range might seem at odds with the gap potential, but it is only stable in the same sense as nitroglycerin is kept stable to prevent detonation.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2554.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2550.50 bias-down signal at 1015. Exiting the open under 2556.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2561.50 bias-up signal.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s Morning Market to her I’m a little surprised because I was ready to trade this overnight and we got nothing nothing I shouldn’t be that surprised because the ECB policy statement is this morning coming up about 45 minutes from now 7:45 Mario draghi speaks afterward the big question that the statement should address not rates which are expected to remain steady but what sort of tapering they’re planning for next year rumored to be about it 50% cut back in purchases so weather balloons LED balloons get to that expectation we’ll see how much that’s already been built into the market dissipated already before getting into this anxiousness overnight the bases here is for having spent so much time during those specific times timing windows yesterday under 25 50 for the relevant level before recovering and because the recovery then stopped short of rejecting that time and amount of time spent under that relevant level that any kind of bounced from yesterday’s low is temporary until yesterday so bouncing further this morning whatever which itself kind of obligatory here just touching 2541 50 which had been the employment situation reports so it’s the pivotal load to the actual love that pull back and having touched it says that the actual going to be tested which would have been fine if they have been done yesterday right away instead of standing undermining any reaction up we have to address that this reaction up if it does catch statement why not will be favorable and was forming a durable topandback under yesterday’s late Lowe’s 51 would set up an attraction back down to yesterday’s new Darlow 4150 and again 4150 just having touched the prior load of the pivotal low that is set up a retest of the actual low of that pull back which was 3950 but really targets or measures out to 32 test 3635 361-535-2536 but that would be if that were tested first before neutralizing Sunday night size or retesting Sunday night size let alone putting a new High clothes at their press conference coming after the ECB policy statement not a lot else going on and has unfinished business Euro yesterdayTuesday but we’re not greeting from a position of weakness so that would be likely resistance 1 1865 to checking it out overnight when 1812 11868 was tested so that’s retested the reward is probably to probe the week old high last Thursday’s High when 1895 none of which changes the complexity of complexion of this entire range just biding its time before breaking under one 1760 missed an opportunity yesterday not giving up just like Tuesday having recovered of the Friday’s eyes but not closing above and below very critical that that result in a higher close it’s that kind of action that got this drop into going or we started this previously this is a month ago probing lower lows recovering but not closing above those prioritize and then you can see that vulnerability gold holding that range 12 750 but getting a little late to be rejecting it if in fact that is a bottom really need to get that going today would be the Catalyst what you’d expect that to happen so it to happen silver somewhere around 7 1711 The Weeknd and then let alone and not following through yesterday that there’s potential forbutso 15119 for instance being attacked herebarely that’s the normal least likely potential crude oil presumably waiting for its natural position of weakness are they extending lower overnight the objective of this setup being 284 at least get that out of the way you know the the reaction to the I could test that and hold and be in recovery mode by the clothes that’s possible alright that’s it any questions let me know if you coming shortly and I’ll try to track that as it’s coming up good luck today
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The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Taking care of (yesterday’s) business.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday night’s rally had recovered to 2569.25. Greeting Tuesday’s open back up at 2567.75 immediately reacted down, filling the gap from Monday’s 2563.50 close. Holding a test of the bias-up signal had put into play an offsetting test of its 2560.25 bias-down signal. But the gap’s natural support launched a bigger bounce extending to 2570.25 through the afternoon bias environment exit. Its reaction down was likely to probe fresh session lows, but two unfavorable headlines hijacked the organic sponsorship. That limited the drop to 2564.25, leaving 2560.25 to become “unfinished business below.”
Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-lower ranging through yesterday’s close immediately started resolving down. Two separate probes of lower lows eventually came within 1 tick of 2560.25, neutralizing its attraction. All of which has been recovered back up to overnight highs attacking 2566.00.
If, then…
One of two templates are likely this morning. One compensates for the delay in fulfilling 2560.25, and the other template isolates the delayed test to the overnight. Compensating for the delay would extend down to 2556.00-2557.50. There’s still room down to 2554.00 before even threatening a deeper pullback while waiting for a new trend high close. Instead, the overnight action can be isolated back above yesterday’s 2563.50-2564.25 lows. Maintaining their recovery through the open would be a good start, but quickly recovering above yesterday’s 2567.25 close would offer better protection against resuming the decline.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2566.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2563.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2560.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it’s Wednesday it’s time for Wednesdays and Morning Market to her Funny Thing Happened on the Way to fulfilling downside objectives yesterday a couple of headlines back to back it would go we had a balance of the way up to 25 7025 which was the room for noise precisely the room for noise above 6825 6750 6750 68.85 being the inflection point for the morning that ultimately whole day I ended up holding onto price not letting it go to a bias environment exit actually the thing and had tried extending was productive did something relevant probing a fresh high pressure above the timing Windows High when they was leaving what the preliminary price action had done and it started cluing us into the reversal coming and it developed pretty quickly on a couple of headlines even stop prematurely of its bounce potential before triggering another couple of them actually but the point is Scott Cellars ahead of themselves the well based on the same thing the two headlines this stopping pessimistically short I know it’s just a tick but it’s still a relevant level that wasn’t touched before extending down and you can see why the headlines clearly had an impact the first one having a little bit and then the following it was an actual move under there was a pattern set up that suggested under 6625 would be an air pocket when and said that air pocket developed up here thanks to the headline the artificial cause not the organic organic cause and delayed the inevitable didn’t have to delay it actually could have turned going to respond come back up to the house before the inevitable but instead is it is the inevitable was produced overnight and that is extending first of all the afternoons decline or resuming at I should say and then extending it down to 1650 25 650 coming within a tick of the unfinished business below unfinished business below anyway but not for the purpose of neutralizing two things happen to this price action like clear templates others but the overwhelmingly likelihood is that today is going to do one of two things either resume that even though it was already tested overnight 2565 not for the purpose of testing for the delay and compensating for the delay means extending even deeper 220-557-5056 so if the decline is rallying this morning or holding a moment then we’re headed back to the house and threw them to 2557at least isolate the overnightstay open that the open is back above yesterday’s Lowe’s 6350 6425 get out of the open above 6350 6425 hold them through the open and very likely all that overnight stuff will have been isolated it won’t even appear on the intraday doesn’t mean it didn’t happen and everybody’s not aware of it it just points out the sentiment shift had dramatic it is how substantial it is that it didn’t repeat through the open and it was rejected to that degree now I like to see a little more than that not just opening above yesterday 6350 6425 Lowe’s but also above 6767 25-year 6750 essential oil Futures close to 6725 so that would be helpful as well we won’t be out of the woods until 6750 recovered but just get out of the oven in 15 minutes at 6625 66 and will give every benefit of the doubt to the isolation template kicking in to the downside further downside being off the table to the next move being a recovery backup to Mondays if that’s Sunday night size remember there’s an outstanding for today for this morning so highly reliable set up working here at work here but we do have one that’s developing now with this deeper pull back yesterday but it’s a little premature to go there just yet so nothing new on the RC it depends on actually rejecting the overnight drop for one thing but the overnight drop has neutralized and attraction below at the dash on covering it is a big deal would be a big deal extended down over night or afternoon still staying away from a test retest Monday night but there’s a pretty substantial up to 3275 almost two weeks old but makes the eventual less likely to hold still no the euro to put in perspective with the pound is doing the Euro neutralize the Gap yesterday Friday’s close creating a which had developed from barely touching bouncing from one 1760 which I don’t know if I mentioned it needs to be broken if I set up that we discussed coming in would havewould have probed Monday’s loads yesterday and recovered back about Mondays I basically an outside day for me and it did half of that and almost the rest of it by probing under yesterday’s Lowe’s and then recoverbest I probably got two Mondays was and then we’re coming back up to Monday side but did not close above it what do we know about setups that fully form but for the last element they can be as bullish or bearish whichever the opposite it is of what they were going to be this would have been pretty bullish and static could be pretty barish overnight is already Pro blower same setup really applies and that is to recover the prior sessions High which is still similar back to 8825 and higher but that’s not a bicycle otherwise not looking for a bottom to just develop silver did not get back out of of 17 to form a bottom it’s probing lower overnight I will be able to lower the Buy Signal back to 1711 because of the fresh low it was just couldn’t do that and then gold is similarly not holding it close within its range which is support basically but really from a timing perspective for the purpose of bottoming to still be backing and filling when that’s already done it’s getting a little bit bordering on Overkill and getting dangerously close to the pivotal after returning to the retesting the actual low and this pattern so the Bullet scenario that are coming out today very influential made it back down to 118 yesterday held their didn’t reject it wasn’t able to lower the signal and now that’s extending down overnight to 150 as low as 150 probing the employment situation report low and if that doesn’t hold on then there’s a much bigger problem than trying to bottom crude oil just has no reason why it needs to continue its at least neutralizing some attraction below that can otherwise be back to the recovery but last night it was a little deeper it was double what it is now we’re still in yesterday’s range for the really come out yesterday not that 53 has to be tested already today there’s more of a topping pattern that will start to expect and natural gas hovering at the again yesterday it’s break targeting 284 being tested overnightand then we go alright any questions ghost of the charger but I’ll see you there before the open we’re all supposed to have anything else dramatic happened something that suggests the overnight is actually being isolated we can get that I get a heads up on that before the open or not being isolated but remember to isolate the other night we really want to see 2566 recovered and 25 6750 not long after that if not already being recovered as well and anything shallower keeps the door open to probing the other night live good luck today
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The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Leaving a gap behind.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Monday was an “outside day,” gapping up above Friday’s high and closing under Friday’s low. Its 2576.75 opening tick immediately succumbed to the the morning’s bearish WedEX influence, which lasted through the bias environment’s 2570.25 low. WedEX wasn’t responsible for the trending down through the balance of the session. A test of the morning’s 2567.25 had been put into play, helping to maintain the decline. Was it a lack of buyers, or new sponsorship, that helped the decline extend to its next lower objective at 2562.00. No new “unfinished business” was left outstanding.
Overnight action’s new info…
Globex immediately pierced a fresh low down to 2561.50, then began firming. A narrow range began forming upon touching 2566.50. A brief break lower barely touched 2562.50 before snapping back up into the range — and now through it. A fresh overnight high was just touched at 2567.50, within 3 ticks of this morning’s bias-up signal.
If, then…
“Outside days” often reflect a near-term trend extreme. This may have prevented Monday from confirming Friday having put into play a new rally objective of 2590.50. The go-ahead signal required only a second consecutive close above 2563.75, which Monday’s close was still testing. Reinstating a higher objective for the rally would require closing above Monday’s 2576.75 high (not Sunday night’s 2577.25 high), and then overcoming this new area’s rejection habit that Monday established. Regardless, another rally attempt may be made since “unfinished business above” remains outstanding by the requirement for at least one more new trend high close. Will that effort be made prior to Monday’s pullback extending slightly lower low to probe under 2560.00 or down to 2556.00?
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2570.25 would be likely to trigger the 2568.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2566.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Tuesday it says Tuesday’s Market to her started the week with that Burruss wedding X influence that was pretty productive for the time that it was influential through the morning we’re tracing back down to 2577 e 25 basically retracing the entirety of Friday afternoons games haven’t held a touch of the biceps signal and I’ve suggested the bias down signal at 6725 West Point in the play had been putting to play the game unfinished business below and attracted price lower pretty much a racing Fridays Post open games hand Byers never coalesced weather that’s because whether that’s what happened or seller’s discontinued to overwhelm the decline extended holding bounce limit after bowel movement and ultimately 6725 which was 2562 pretty much racing all of the gay guys from last week’s Wednesday’s higher or lower post close to 6150 which then officially did all of Friday’s games from Thursday’s close so what does that mean closing Beyond there’s a lot of situation happens to be outside more often than you think because they have expended a lot of energy from a new extreme we’re dealing with a similar setup and natural gas that the trend it certainly means that it could turn into yesterday sponsorship 225 60 rejected the upside to be putting into play some deeper pull back and likely a pull back because even though we’re still looking for some fresh clothes and closes on Friday typically don’t happen without even an expiration obscure obfuscation of expiration as welldirections to threaten reversing the trend out the final Arbiter there would be 25 ft alright so as for this morning well overnight bounced lives at 6150 touch and then bouncing raining sideways really that’s your UPS opens down here but which were more bullish optimistic and pessimistic produced a bounce the Rangers up around but nothing that hadn’t been done already and so there’s the lower-end being pierced that wasn’t apparently that’s not the markets in 10 so it has bounced to a fresh fire at least as challenging me overnight High’s it’s Bounce has come to bounce 225 6750 is come to within three types of this morning’s bicep signal 6825 open exit in under 60 15 minutes 25775 to suggest early that the bicep signal will trigger or is making it to make it clear we have several reports this morning the pre open reports open report. Is Redbook it’s not influential typically it happens to be influential to so which is up coming next week which is controversial right now so there’s a price reaction track record of influence but we need to see that recovers back of a high 88 recovery for the otherwise 1760 again again noticably could this be the eventual break possibly historically probably not but continues to be yesterday actually so there’s no available today optimistic optimistic when it still has a retest 131 at least which was attacked not at allFriday’s close that was a pullback that hit its full bag of jective that would bounce at the Bounce stop short and is now broken under that pull back so potentially it’s still a consolidation potentially it’s still just raging but it’s not a setup it’s actual this point gold bounce yesterday search significantly held to the close of a relevant level 50 it’s a little weaker overnight but just stay away from breaking Under 12 7750 hi hi and that would be enough for me to give every benefit of the doubt pattern is bottoming still need 1288 to recover though through the clothes to confirm that momentum is actually up copper silver should do the same thing less substantial initially but still closing about 17 which continues to be a relevant level so closing under-17 today closing at 2:17 today would still have the same effect just closing slightly under 1717 inflection point cuz it really is even though we see all this action down here this congestion I don’t think 17 is just closing 1717 it would be unlikely at this stage 1711 would be pretty in Polish at least indicating a test 1730 coming likely it’s 1730 recovery though that makes the difference to the pattern Long Pond Which Wich pics crude oil this pattern suggests that at least this morning needs to prove that rally is underweight And if yesterday’s rejected aggressively really no excuse and finally Natural Gas that was already actually the end of the week 32 x 9Lily earlier not much of a beat there but still lot of optimism lot of good headlines coming in to at least try to get a test of the biceps signal which if it holds would put into playing off so I can test of the bias down signal that’s 2560 25 but we know that would probably amount to Provo or slight Pierce at least under 25 60 and maybe even the trigger by step alright any questions and I’ll see you there before the open good luck today.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Engine revving.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s surge in reaction to the Senate budget approval had reacted down 8 points overnight. Friday’s open was greeted at a 6-point retracement back to the 2571.75 overnight high, a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring requiring intraday retest. Consolidating through the morning finally broke higher through the noon hour’s exit. Perhaps it was the passive bearish WedEX influence that caused two probes of fresh highs to retrace, and to exit the bias environment at least 1 point under its 2571.00 entry. None of which prevented a surge to 2574.50 after coming to within 3 minutes of the cash session close — a new trend high close on a Friday.
Overnight action’s new info…
An momentary blip-down at Sunday night’s open instantly retraced Friday’s post-close portion of its last-minute surge. Then another surge extended to 2576.50, eventually piercing 2577.00 to add complexity that makes it another “new Globex trend extreme.” Drifting lower from there through Europe’s opens eventually retraced the initial blip-down to 2572.00. But the overnight range remains intact as another bounce is attacking the 2577.25 overnight high.
If, then…
Regardless of the opening print being flat or gapping, a bearish WedEX influence would take control no later than the open 15 minutes’ exit. Trending up through the opening 15 minutes would suggest otherwise, with the possible exception of printing the opening uptrend’s high at 9:45. There was already a lot of room as of Friday’s close to expend selling throughout the morning without damaging the rally’s chart. Now there’s a little more, if the overnight lows hold ahead of the open. Having probed overnight above the prior session’s high, exiting the open under the overnight low often accelerates the downside velocity. Ignoring the opportunity to reverse the prevailing trend often helps to extend the trend further intraday.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2570.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2575.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2578.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up.
Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Monday it’s time for Monday’s Market to her and kind of looks like Friday’s rally is extending don’t forget Friday’s rally which Begin by gapping up actually that Gap up above all prior hides was a little subdued relative to the overnights church that enabled it that had surged being a product of the tax reform theme advancing but I spent the morning consolidating the opens Gap up didn’t retest the overnight High until the afternoon the afternoon of course being a touchstone for the medics what does influential influential and that is by at after the final Rose at least an hour this surge didn’t happen until coming to within three minutes of the cash that can close so that does not speak to the efficacy of the Burruss wedding next Friday afternoon usually isn’t that usually isn’t for Monday morning at so we can be confident that the influential Friday afternoon maybe another way we’ll see how we can be in it because regardless of the open this morning to open which could be higher currently indicated at new highs because last night’s open spiked up and even though large portion of last night was spent in decline or at least for tracing back down to Friday’s late eventually the origin almost Friday’s last-minute search now back up to 77 almost touching 7725 so wherever we open but we haven’t even higher than or within the overnight range or even if the open especially if the open under the overnight ranges so far there is still that various what x that could influence the morning the entirety of the morning and influence so you to be aware of and that is last night’s open last night’s initial time frame here’s a low it was initially a blip down that retraced large portion of that Spike doesn’t have to have been there by now but having probed above the prior session size overnight exiting the open under the under the overnight lows down and often invites velocity into the mix so what has happened here since drifting lower into and out of Europe’s opens at a rally well back to the upper end of the range actually done anything that wasn’t done already so I’m not ready to write this off yet but if we do the opening 15 minutes doesn’t down if you have any 15 minutes with one exception. If the opening 15 minutes probably influence influencewhether it was present Friday afternoonbecomes pretty much irrelevant if this morning’s open where the trend up and by the way whatever its influence even if it is very influential this morning that will make a difference when is mourning ends when the bias environment laps is the bear is watex influence is not a consideration anymore alright so I’m not really not really interested in that’s really buying early strength I do want to see where it is if it is at all it’ll be interesting to consider fading any but I’m much more interested in as far as likely setups selling a opening dip under 25 72 73 almost would start tilting the scales enough if there’s an opening dip and it doesn’t fall over and the only 15 minutes volatility even if it does Trend down or remain Under Pressure doesn’t give us an indication that momentum is reversing down I want to buy that for lease to retest of the overnight hi it’s a new blowback stranded stream maybe even for the potential to extend the rally don’t forget that I set up that is all the complete and fails to complete can be as in this case can be as bullish is it would have been a decline that would have been signaled by breaking under exiting the open under the overnight lows that tries through the open to break under the overnight lows and fails when they open is done can turn out to be as foolish as it would have been very much so there are pads higher and lower and we’ll track them at the open Extending down remember this whole rain started with a confirmed that even though price extended down never really gave us that required lower close but if I finally did provide a lower close it was within the range and so that wasn’t living up to the spirit of rewarding the confirm break out we got this bike down on it was recovered in today so I’m pretty close to rejecting it all but literally formed a head and shoulders top hat that last minute and it’s really been straight down since then one thing that I point it out along the way or that pattern was taking its time for filling it’s lower close it was that was basically promised as a reward to sellers that created the confirm breakout previously was at the delay would very likely extend that reward so last night’s Gap Town and big question here continues to be continued to be brief detour in that case butthe pound whichThursday night Friday morning and fulfilling that minimum objective which is to fill the gap this a two-week-old got back to the employment situation report reaction stop optimistically recovered actually buy Fridays open that’s not been exploited but I don’t think I can be exploited much Beyond feeling this Gap back to last Monday’s close 1:30 to 65 area and then the RC which I’m not sure this is working out or going to work out but that turn that we anticipated from up here last Friday’s close to pull back and then it’s recovery as stop shorter stop short before we’re tracing the recovery and now overnight is not showing any signs of improvement Silver with recovery triggered signaled above 1711 still needed confirmation from a second especially having tested 1730 with that recovery not forthcoming than Friday already hadnot yet but this patternthat didn’t gain traction didn’t break under relevant levels Gap downhill of training support and closed positive so now starting a new week and starting over the Gap up in fact not that it’s been extended overnight really no excuse to further delay extending higher the no more back and feeling in this pattern is needed if it’s extended higher and the natural gas is really scuse me has really taken advantage of this still premature recovery and there’s a fresh and low that same session close is above and inflection point which is fine that at least indicates and usually only indicates that the downside momentum has lapsed but in this case it has extended higher not only Friday but now Sunday night gabbing up camping up considerably back to resistance back to 3 so there’s a gap this is basically back to 297 to 9697 that’s going to be the reference point for the open if he opened above to 96 to 97 I’m willing to give it every benefit of the doubt before before reversing down otherwise failed 96 to 97 and I would look for this premature bounce to start racing and it doesn’tgood luck today
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