Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday’s open gapped up well above Monday’s 2427.50 highs to 2433.00. A probe up to 2436.00 was retraced during the morning’s bias environment back down to its 2429.25 bias-up signal. It recovered, and each remaining timing window trended up to higher and higher highs. The last half-hour touched 2439.25, which mostly recovered after dipping back down to 2435.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
An overnight pullback had room down to 2433.00-2434.00 to maintain the rally’s momentum. The low came within 1 point. Trending back down retested 2435.50 by midnight. Ranging narrowly around it began firming into and out of Europe’s opens. The slope hasn’t steepened, but it has been relentless, while trending through yesterday’s high to touch 2441.25.

If, then…
Yesterday’s rally gained no traction for its efforts. So, extending higher this morning requires gapping up, which is indicated. At least, that can help to contain a post-open dip. A post-open dip can be avoided by exceeding any resistance that is touched during the open. This is especially important when gapping up. Not already reversing down at Wednesday’s open could extend the rally with little or no interruption to 2445.00 if not also to 2553.00. Overbought RSIs at Friday morning’s 2443.50 high require a retest, and there’s also a new high close outstanding. Meanwhile, this being expiration week, WedEX will trigger at today’s close. First things, first — pre-open econ reports will be perceived as either encouraging or dissuading this afternoon’s anticipated rate hike. A lull between the morning and afternoon action wouldn’t be surprising. But this afternoon should be especially fun with Yellen’s quarterly Q&A.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2441.00 would be likely to trigger the 2440.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2437.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Wednesday at San for Wednesday’s morning market tour overnight events not very eventful anywhere but London certainly not as eventful as in London with basically a Towering Inferno that is a horrible scene in horrible story and folding it doesn’t seem to be affecting the market the or European market eventually but the overnight dip had room down to 24 33 34 before challenging the upside momentum that was in place yesterday upside momentum from having maintained a gap up above the prior session and improving it through the day although no traction was gained for the effort two different looks no traction was gained for the effort because the afternoon bias environment lapsed 2:30 elapsed at 2:30 with in the noon hours range right at its upper end but with Annette and the final hour wasn’t entered any higher maybe lower the 310 320 window did Trend up but not too fresh hi and it was combined with either signal so the only way to extend the rally today without interruption is to Gap up Gap up above yesterday’s high which is indicated indicated as you can see yesterday’s high 2434 3039 just need to Gap and down or not down under 36 37 38 3775 to avoid triggering order know in advance for probably not going to trigger by 145 that happens to be the room Friday so there’s some challenging resistance there as well Friday morning from the morning any structural element that stuff too can be exceeded do they have any 15 triggered by us up 24 4025 although that would just create an attraction that has to be tested not necessarily be tested right away we’ve got over but our size at Friday’s hi we’ve got outstanding pattern that’s been telling us the whole context is awaiting the very least one more new High clothes which will want to see above not just above yesterday close which was a new trend high or a new high but above any prior intraday high like Friday so the stuff that’s in trench this before other elements other insights that we’ve been getting that have been telling like the Dow index SPX relative performances have been warning us this time is going to be different but we can get up through Fridays hi if they open is successfully navigated to 45 don’t want to get too out there but there’s potential 253 or higher so also and one final note here today’s Wednesday Today is Wednesday of expiration week and so we have a wed x indicator that is likely to trigger gapping up pretty much ensure that whatever happens today we’re going to have enough information qualifying information to trigger a bias a wed x biosignal that apply to Friday afternoon and Monday morning so in this pattern that is so long before that though much more relevant and much more of a wild card will be this afternoon’s FMC policy statement and Fed chair Yellen quarterly Q&A those are fun to trade so be prepared for those and long before those is this morning we’ve got a couple of economic reports we have CPI and retail sales these are consumer-oriented and they reflect inflation or inflationary perceptions and I suppose FMC it’s been meeting already knows these and has or has insight into them and it’s already decided what they’re going to do today but the market will be made aware at least of of some new data that are going to help to anticipate whether or not the expected rate hike is going to happen so should be some volatility before the open so this Gap up that’s indicated this Gap up that is testing a higher priority is not big tin you post open and if the reports were to trigger extending higher then we could be looking at 2445 or more quite a bit yesterday confirming a break out another words from a multi-session rains it’s a waiting at least a third lower clothes and does have meanwhile some lower attractions is still ranging gold barely recovered back above 12 6850 end of the 12 6 850-6958 area that’s resistance as much as it support when it’s being probed it is chipping away at that support really needs to close back above 1272 7252 indicate that this has been absorbed and it tried overnight 72 was tested but we’re slipping back into negative territory here silver which has led the way down is bouncing it has room to bounce it has room to bounce and it is bouncing a couple $0.03 short of 17 his recovery would at least beginner retracement of this down leg we’re going to need to bottom before actually reversing if a bounce is going to develop into resuming the rally it’s premature to just reverse that Trend backup Longmont chipping away at its own support 153 29 but not closing under it or overlapping it in any case so still potential to avoid a deeper dip still potential to produce a bigger balance before rolling over if that’s the intent and kind of mixed bag coming into the fomc meeting with that support chipped away if it were a knee-jerk reaction down for instance – 150 – 2223 that could be that could be quickly absorbed and launched another rally leg if there’s a need jerk reaction up to 150 for 16 it’s already been tested really no reason to return to 154 16 this point other than to extend the correct of balance to 155 o4 Sears a lot of room for playing here head of loan into the news this afternoon crude oil weaker and it bounced yesterday AP reported after the close indicated to gap down it’s been down to 70 to 4572 having fill this Gap or retested Monday’s Gap up above prioritize pretty helpful to forming a bottom not until we finishing about I’m at forming a bottom if the Gap under prior Lowe’s can be tested first I won’t got to buy signal traced out here 4620 basically 4615 4620 but we’ll see what we can do about lowering that if the low is tested and then finally natural gas which did everything it was supposed to do if it wasn’t going to trigger this by signal which had been attacked a couple times but never triggered if it wasn’t going to trigger it in a timely fashion which it did not then we knew we were going to retest last week slows well we have her tested last week slows we were tested them yesterday didn’t close above the low or at least reject the test to have any degree of confidence that this pattern would be playing out it still could play out but it’s apparently needed a flesh something else out or it is not playing out at all so the Buy Signal doesn’t really change need to actually hold 295 which is being probed here overnight and clothes back above 301 alright any questions let me know I’m going to end the recording here if there’s any questions or supposed to determine I will see you before they open good luck today .

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Monday’s 4-point gap down to 2424.00 was within Friday’s range. It was within Friday’s afternoon range. As was Monday’s entire session. The morning’s bias environment was entered after diving nearly 11 points. The balance of the session narrowed the range, leaving the morning’s 2415.50 bias-down target outstanding. A late surge attacked the open’s 2427.50 high.

Overnight action’s new info…
Back under 2425.25 would have reversed Monday’s late surge. But it was only touched, and China monetary moves triggered a surge to 2430.50. Extending into and out of Europe’s opens ultimately touched 2433.50. Its reaction down has been trying to hold 2430.00 as support, which is a 61.8% retracement back down to yesterday’s highs.

If, then…
Oh, look. Probing above the prior session’s highs. Where have we seen this before? Oh, right. During the several sessions preceding Friday plunge. The probe so far has only developed overnight, but it hasn’t yet been rejected. Maintaining and extending a gap up above the 2428.00 area would be credible for extending even higher. Meanwhile, recall that Monday’s anxiousness created a pattern that often produces a false break in one direction, before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. And last week’s pattern of failed rally attempts may not be dead. Not entirely dead. Maybe not even mostly dead. Not maintaining a gap up, or already rejecting it into the open would target Monday’s “unfinished business below” at 2415.50, and a retest of Friday’s 2412.50 low.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2431.00 would be likely to trigger the 2429.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2427.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Tuesday its temper Tuesday’s morning market tour zigging instead of sagging their head there was a cell setup left last night and yes eyes closed pull back limit here at 2426 and really didn’t want to see anything else anything lower than as far as maintaining upside as far as delaying any short entry 24 25 25 which was touched the actual cell signal would have been triggered under 2423 who never rode the pullback limit basically held its room for noise down to 2525 and took off from there and took off from there not from there there but there news of some monetary Maneuvers by China so China’s moves are surprising when they happen it’s pretty closed Society or governmentally and so it really does shot the system and interesting I’m just something that I look at it looked at last night I was here alive when we were on our way up here and I was able to calculate what was the market subjective on the way down if we reverse down it was 1550 and what did the market close at yesterday last cash session trade basically was was it exactly 20 it was 25 Target that just needs to be triggered and when it’s triggered that buying or selling pressure is fulfilled and in this case the buying or selling pressure their relationship to each other there’s a likelihood of this pattern resolving down it resolved up so the likelihood is discounted that’s our 61 8th and there’s our resistance pretty interesting that’s not a direct relation to the bias parameter little bit it’s just a different pattern the pattern that would have been likely to break higher actually Target 3475 so if that patterns and play we’re heading to 3475 next thing the bias up Target otherwise this is just some overnight noise and remember the basic interpretation or analysis of yesterday’s pattern that it reflected anxiousness remember it developed entirely within not just within Fridays range but within Friday afternoons range so that is not calm that is not stability that’s anxiousness and as such it’s first break tends to be false if we break lower this morning which is still possible as I’ll put on a moment why it would break lower this morning we can hold a test of Friday’s low form a better bottom that is so it to the tick maybe even not entirely their butt hole the retest up Friday’s low and there’s over shoulder ice or there’s unfinished business from yesterday and we can form a better bottom to launch retest of Friday size break her first and yeah we can test Fridays high source over but our size there but but that would be the fall sprake likely to resolve down so is this overnight break break breakwill be heading back down to Friday’s Lowe’s so don’t count out seller’s yet not until the open or not until getting out of of 3350the pattern reflects buying and selling pressure or out of the luminary numbers in a little bit and we will look at other markets Aussie needs to or needed to From Below overlap test Wednesday 7555 got it done last night like to see that and breaking back now breaking back under the lower end of the range totally ignored and silver has only deteriorated further that was the problem with closing under 1609 or 1709 that was the maximum pullback potential to maintain actually this as just a fullback closing under 1709 which in fact we can gab Thunder the open Gap Thunder yesterday two maybe and threw it had one last line of defense but the the real guiding Factor here was either too close above 1709 or below it and having extended down extending down overnight unless there’s a close at least above 1690 there’s no by signal employer Gold’s a little weaker it held for a couple days this 1269 1238 5012 69-54 bacteria still regardless needs to close back of a 1277 to put into play retest of the highs and not just reaches to the highest new highs about 1300 but as I say overnight it’s a little bit weaker testing testing 12 6350 closed today above 12 6950 and 12 7250 preferably we won’t have to wait for 1277 / 1277 would still be critical confirmation it’s not really a cell signal here although closing Under 12 6850 is not foolish Longbine had an opportunity to close back up 154 16 yesterday which would have extended the bounce not just to retest the balance limit that was tested Thursday night at 1 5424 but a little bit higher to 155 o4 before work and then I said that entire morning balance really an afterthought balance Post open bounce was retraced entirely and back in the negative territory but not under a prior Lester Day still leaves a hold 150 329 at support its being probed overnight it was .

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Having failed yet another probe above a prior high, Thursday afternoon’s decline gained traction, and the evening’s Globex open gapped down on Britain’s election results. Nothing that Friday’s open couldn’t overcome by extending above its prior high. It didn’t. But gapping up TO its prior high extended higher anyway, to new highs touching 2443.50 resistance. This only angered the traction gods, and the reaction down accelerated as the morning’s bias environment began lapsing. Friday Factors leveraged the reversal into a collapse that touched 2412.50 through the afternoon bias environment lapsing. Bouncing 17 points closed back above the past week’s lows.

Overnight action’s new info…
No further recovery has been attempted since Friday’s close. Price has instead retraced almost 61.8% of Friday’s final hour rally. The gradual slope has allowed 3-minute RSI to avoid reaching oversold at the current lows testing 2420.00, leaving only 1-minute to diverge positively. An inverted Head & Shoulders has formed.

If, then…
Friday’s low recovered from touching what had been the rally’s prior upside target at 2412.50 (had been 2415.00 basis Jun) and its room for noise at 2422.00. The close also recovered back above the prior range’s lows, essentially 2422.00 and 2425.00. This would have been almost an automatic buy signal if not for the weekend lapse. But it still mitigates the traction sellers gained again during Friday afternoon’s decline. Meanwhile, single-minded relentless overnight trending is vulnerable to reversing direction immediately at the open, if at all. So, not yet rallying out of the open would likely be attracted lower to retest Friday’s low before the next opportunity to bottom.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2420.25 would be likely to trigger the 2422.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2427.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning and welcome it is Monday Monday second week of June sorta and waiting for another shoe to drop waiting for another shoe to drop that over the weekend time heals all wounds it also makes victories fade so even though Fridays Bounce from its collapse managed to recover back above the weeks prior to lose the lower end of the rain somewhat of an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern here if you can see that it’s not because an inverted Head and Shoulders Head and Shoulders actually has to develop in a trend inverted would mean in the context of a downtrend which this was not so still somewhat similar calculations can be taken from it different meanings though but anyway back above the lower end of that range it’s actually it’s pivotal low both tested 2415 would have been the Rally’s original Target basis June and so just a little bit lower like 2412 50 recovered if the low-power test with a little all recovered through the clothes all recovered through the clothes which intro week would have been almost an automatic by no but again over the weekend or as so much time of equidity elapses that Victory fades in fact it’s just been one way is off immediately following open opening levels further stream through a Roman time failing that lowers again the only thing that the void Thursday night 424 that was tested overnight that did reverse down intraday but it’s always nicer or at least cleaner because it’s more common to test those or to have turns sentiment turns intraday so that mitigates the probe under what would otherwise be a cell signal 153 29 if 150 329 breaks anyway its objective is pretty clearly defined a 15222 meanwhile though so long as 153 29 holds the support another bounce back to the highs is possible not really a good by signal on that not really good by signal for the risk-reward it’s not a matter of defining the risk or where the risk kick back and that’s clothes back on 153 29 it’s at there’s not really a good inflection point in here to get us back up but if I had to pick one would be about 150 for 50 or a half 16 pics this is less than that but I want to see some clearance of it crude oil a little firmer overnight right above the inflection point this break lower Wednesday wasn’t confirmed Thursday Thursday Pro blower it did leave at sending a gap under Thursday’s low that has yet to be retested intraday so someone suspicious to already be overnight but there’s no requirement for gas.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

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NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s rollover was greeted with an overnight probe above Wednesday’s late high to 2434.25. Reinstating by proxy Wednesday’s Pivot Reversal? No. Failing, again. The open tried again before dropping to 2425.00. Rallying into the noon hour to attack 2437.00 also failed, and also dropped back to 2425.50. A final bounce stopped short of being relevant at 2431.00-2432.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Exit polling in reaction to Britain’s snap election triggered a gap down under Thursday’s lows to 2434.00. It began reversing up immediately, and soon recovered 2431.00-2432.00. Europe’s opens were greeted there, triggering a blip-up to attack 2436.00. But that quickly settled back down to 2431.00-2432.00.

If, then…
I had not expected Britain’s elections to be an intraday factor. If anything, it inhibited trending. But even last night’s volatility is no assurance of breaking free from the current 3-day range. And even last night’s complete recovery from gapping down is no assurance of avoiding the low’s retest. Yesterday’s sellers gained traction, but last night’s gap down spent no further time stewing in pessimism before behaving optimistically. And that optimism has failed multiple attempts to accomplish more than retracing the drop, despite all “unfinished business” attractions being above at 2438.00 and higher. Still not recovering to gap up would remain more vulnerable to extending down, next targeting 2419.25.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2428.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2424.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2428.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2433.25 bias-up signal.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning alright good morning and welcome good morning and welcome it is Friday it’s time for Friday’s morning market tour so are we up labeled here just for everybody’s reminder that the front-month is sap the month that we’re tracking it up if you need that levels for June just let me know happy to make that calculation is changing a little bit so still in the range sort of Wednesday’s failed recovery the pivot reversal gapped up Thursday Wednesday thank you multiple very shallow but still that doesn’t change the opportunity to recover and the opportunity failed and failed several times yesterday the results considering the British and was looking at was trying to do that really what going to fulfill it that gap down maybe the deciding factor is or would be gapping up above yesterday’s highs several attempts at that have returned back to unchanged essentially so there’s no economical 4 coming out for you open that we might look forward to as a catalyst catalyst so if the decline word resume or let’s say this way if the rally has an extended the recovery overnight recovery has an extended the Gap up to resume the rally then there’s still an attraction to Fresh Lowe’s still some consequence to two Wednesdays pivot reversal having failed to fully form at Wednesday’s clothes or the multiple attempts to restart it by proxy having failed as well the consequence at some point is a complete reset a complete reset means back to the origin through it if necessary that is 24 1925 can we get to 2419 25 today on a Friday of all days like we are than not to be able to make that happen again that’s we’re going to be playing defense marketing and that has henna Niro and sympathy little bit lower overnight 30 tested the basically the 11111 objective that the prior low you can’t see that but overnight at did also the top be better gold dump yesterday Gold’s dump yesterday the Post open dump maybe even the free open dump did that have some Advanced info or or maybe just some smart maneuvering that helps in the end siphon off negative reaction possibly I mean there’s no real follow through overnight there’s a retest of yesterday’s low which is actually in that pattern it’s not necessarily bullish but it is constructive to a bullish pattern it can even be tested yesterday’s low down to 6950 just need to stay away or avoid breaking under 6950 and I’ll lower the Buy Signal silver similarly head broken lower yesterday Post open Hill or went out testing lower prioritize not going to get away that easily in fact it is proving lower overnight but basically closing back of up 1745 closing back above 1745 should put back in the play should put back into place 1790 Long Pond pull back to the support of what it been the Rally’s Target originally that was sliced through that just couldn’t get any momentum going above it it’s a good opportunity for corrective bounce back up to 154 1854 24 if this is going to be a bigger drop that was in the day we spent yesterday and in fact 154 26th and then resolving down or trying to be a little more helpful if that work done today as opposed to overnight but any clothes back under 150 329 would be credible for guard list of its duration or extension producing a fresh drop and we could get to lower Pryor High as easily in the 15220 or you but again I really prefer bouncing again for not being able to is triggered above the 309 basically the same high that was the intraday High Wednesday soba 309 but of course subject to Horn eating confirmation from a second consecutive are closed as well I just seen that not be today because confirmation after weekend is Waterdown alright okay so Gap up today and maintain it which hasn’t been the pattern the strength has been but not maintaining it get break that pattern by maintaining opening strength or any probe of a prior and buyers get every benefit of the doubt for extending hi are we could see new highs and I don’t know that a new High clothes but new High clothes on a Friday would in French the rally especially after a week like this otherwise the vulnerability is to the downside 24 1925 any questions please post on the chart room where I’ll see you before the open and good luck today don’t forget we’ve got Saturday review tomorrow good luck today.

 Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
[This paragraph’s levels are all basis Jun.] Not for lack of trying, but for trying too little. We knew at Tuesday’s close that not gapping up Wednesday above 2434.25-2435.50would likely extend the decline to at least 2424.25. Wednesday’s 3-point gap up from Tuesday’s 2428.75 cash session close extended to test Tuesday morning’s 2434.25 highs. The prior highs held, and the noon hour collapsed to 2424.00. The balance of the session rallied back to the morning’s high, and almost formed a Pivot Reversal except for not maintaining its fresh high.

Overnight action’s new info…
[This paragraph’s levels are all basis Jun.] Globex action initially hugged Thursday’s last-minute reaction down to 2430.50 but never even pierced it. Firming greeted Europe’s opens back up at Thursday’s last-minute 2435.00 high. Fresh highs eventually developed, now probing Tuesday’s late high by 1 point.

If, then…
[At this morning’s open, the front-month rolls forward in ES to Sep to Jun. Going forward, all levels are quoted basis Sep, trading at a 2.00-2.50 discount.] Forming all but the last element of a setup can have the opposite resolution. So, missing Wednesday’s chance at a Pivot Reversal had a chance to resolve today as bearishly as it could have been bullish. Market Wrap addressed why that might not be a problem today — the late reaction down wasn’t too late to be credible, but it was too shallow to prevent resuming the rally overnight. And it seems the rally has, in fact, resumed overnight, targeting “unfinished business above at 2436.00, 2437.75, and at least one more new trend high close. Pre-open ECB headlines must still be navigated, and then ex-FBI director Comey’s Senate committee hearing. Regardless of the catalyst, failing to gap up would put yesterday’s late failure back in control, with potential down to 2419.25.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters, now available basis Sep] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2435.25 would be likely to trigger the 2433.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2431.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Phonetic dictation…
good morning welcome welcome back it is Thursday it’s time for Thursday’s Morning Market or it is expiration week upcoming one week prior to Thursday morning prior to expiration monthly or quarterly Express rolls right here June Now set overnight will be rolling for updating the and done except for the clothes which didn’t maintain its probe above the Morningside that every single element was done without that final element often makes a set up in this is true of any setups in my work off and makes it set up as sentimental extreme to one and One Direction the opposite direction that it would have been in other words this would have been pretty bullish except for that final element which now makes it pretty Parish that’s not always the case and we had one clue to that that I want her to close to that that I discussed yesterday it made me suspicious about the rejection even though the rejection came into our the reaction down the failure to actually fulfill that setup came and time it was before coming within 3 minutes of the cash and close so it was real price action it wasn’t really slow and by the time we get to the today power throws a wrench in this works I’m trying to recover then yes a slow doesn’t have to be retested but probably will be down to 24 1925 used to be 2421 21 15 days June now 1925 basis coming out momentarily with the.