Crude Oil — follow-up

Closing surge makes a bottom seem inevitable.

Emphasis on the word “seem.” Firming intraday Friday waited until very late — essentially, until I had posted Daily Spot — before surging another $2 to test 48.00 resistance. 

Price action already had been constructive to forming a bottom by consolidating back up to 46.25 resistance. That was sufficient to prove the level”s relevance.

Inflecting into a $2-surge through it can prove its relevance, too.

The late surge does not inform the pattern. Closing at 48.00 resistance after testing it is no different that closing at 46.00 resistance after testing it. The extra $2 doesn”t make a retracement any likelier than it makes momentum likelier to extend higher.

But the extra surge to the extra resistance does require the prior resistance to hold as support. Now, closing under 46.00 would signal a new downleg underway. Otherwise, after two breakout attempts failed to launch downlegs when they weren”t confirmed the following day, extending above 48.00 should seal a bottom.