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Daily Spot… – If, Then… Market Timing

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s slow and shallow slide doesn’t complete a top, but it might launch an aggressive dip Tuesday before its recovery Wednesday or Thursday can begin completing a top. The alternative to dipping aggressively is to resume the rally, but likely only by surging — any muted strength would be less likely to extend.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Breaking Friday under 1262.00 to test 1250.20 support was not bullish, which Monday’s drop to 1242.00 proved. Closing under 1250.20 now allows no consideration for a buy signal before first testing the 1216.50-1223.00 target area.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up to 15.70 and extending to fresh highs intraday without closing above prior highs last week was bearish. Initial weakness Monday suggested as much, although the session mostly only ranged around unchanged.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
My concerns about Thursday and Friday’s “ineffectual optimism” were confirmed by Monday’s gap down that slid sharply intraday to retest the prior trading range. Monday’s 161-20 low would have been bullish support if tested before trying ineffectually to break high. Instead, it is now likely to be broken on the way to fresh lows at 160-28.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s weakness was recovered in time for Monday to range somewhat narrowly around unchanged. Friday’s gap open above prior highs at 42.00-42.30 (basis May, 40.70-41.00 basis Apr) should be retested to form a durable top.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Monday from Friday’s fresh high close now leaves “unfinished business above” that should help to attract price higher and resume the rally targeting 1.99, so long as the pullback holds its test of 1.85.